After voting yes in a nationwide referendum on constitutional reform Egyptians are waiting to see how the army will usher in a new age of democracy, reports Gamal Essam El-Din In what is being hailed as a historic step towards democracy more than 14.1 million voters, or 77.2 per cent of eligible voters, said yes in the 19 March referendum on constitutional amendment drafted by a panel of reformist lawyers and judges. The new amendments limit the presidency to two four-year terms and ease restrictions on candidates seeking to run in presidential campaigns. They also state that elections must be held under full judicial supervision, and strip future presidents of the power to refer civilians to military tribunals or impose an indefinite state of emergency. Members of the Higher Council of Armed Forces (HCAF), which has been in charge of Egypt since 11 February, announced that a "constitutional declaration" would be issued within hours. According to General Mamdouh Shahin, HCAF member and assistant to the minister of defence for legal affairs, the declaration will chart the path towards forthcoming parliamentary and presidential elections and civilian rule. "The overwhelming vote in favour of the amendments means that parliamentary elections will be held ahead of presidential elections," says Tarek El-Beshri, the reformist judge who headed the committee which drafted the amendments. The constitutional declaration will also, says El-Beshri, include changes to five major pieces of political legislation. "These include the 1956 law on the exercise of political rights; the 1972 People's Assembly law; the 1977 political parties law; the 1980 Shura Council law and the 2005 law on presidential elections. Approval of the constitutional amendments on 19 March makes the amendment of these five major political laws a necessity." Deputy Prime Minister Yehia El-Gamal said on Monday that "the army's constitutional declaration could also include changes to other articles of the constitution should they be deemed necessary to meet the political demands Egypt now faces." The HCAF's declaration, says constitutional expert Hatem Bagato, will also set a timeframe for parliamentary elections, expected between June and September, and the presidential poll that will follow them. "I think that within a year Egypt will have a democratically-elected president and two houses of parliament, the People's Assembly and Shura Council. The constitutional declaration will set out a roadmap for the steps ahead, with a timetable for elections and laws to be passed to implement the constitutional amendments." Sobhi Saleh, a former Muslim Brotherhood MP and a member of the committee tasked with proposing constitutional amendments last month, says that the HCAF met with members of the committee three times. "The first time was when its members were officially tasked with amending nine articles, the second when the articles were amended and the third when changes to the five major political laws were suggested," said Saleh. Many political observers believe that HCAF's constitutional declaration will need to provide guarantees that Egypt's transition to democracy will not be hijacked by Islamist forces. The Muslim Brotherhood and Islamist groups -- Salafists, Al-Gamaa Al-Islamiya and Jihad among them -- were instrumental in mobilising the electorate to vote in favour of the amendments. "They want to overwhelm the next parliament and control political life," insists Gamal Zahran, a political science professor and a former independent MP. He argues that to prevent this the HCAF's declaration should abrogate the individual candidacy system in favour of party lists. The group's leaders have argued that a social pact necessitates all national forces participate in drafting the new constitution. They have also called for political unity in the face of what they describe as "remnants of the National Democratic Party". In a move to dispel Coptic fears over a possible Islamist state and the adoption of Sharia law Coptic activists have also been invited to talks. The Muslim Brotherhood is expected to announce the formation of the "Freedom and Justice Party" once restrictions on forming parties are lifted. A plethora of other parties are also expected to emerge. "Within less than a year we will have a new constitution that achieves the aspirations of both those who backed and those who rejected the amendments," says Saad El-Husseini, a member of the Brotherhood's Guidance Bureau. "Fears about the Muslim Brotherhood are nonsense." The amendments approved on 19 March were opposed by protest leaders and by presidential hopefuls Mohamed El Baradei and Secretary-General of the Arab League Amr Moussa. Both men urged Egyptians to reject the amendments and push instead for an entirely new constitution that would limit presidential powers. Opponents say voting yes for the amendments sets the stage for parliamentary elections in which only the Brotherhood and the remnants of Mubarak's National Democratic Party have the organisational structures to compete. "This is a nightmare for intellectual Egyptians," says Nabil Abdel-Fattah, a political analyst at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies. "All the youth movements accepted the results of the referendum in line with their commitment to democracy. But they feel deceived by the duplicitous role the religious groups. They see the momentum of their revolution being aborted and perceive a huge threat to the unity of the country through religiously based campaigns." (see pp.2-5)
