The arrival of Saudi forces in Bahrain has only triggered more unrest, turning what was previously a case of internal dissent into a regional battlefield, says Sherine Bahaa The first move came last Monday, when more than 1,000 Saudi troops rolled into the tiny Gulf kingdom of Bahrain in a long convoy of armoured vehicles at the request of the country's Sunni rulers, flashing victory signs as they crossed the causeway connecting Saudi Arabia to the island. Once the Saudis had made their move, the United Arab Emirates then followed suit, sending 500 of their troops to take part in "securing the stability" of Bahrain, which has been wracked by protests over the last month or so. Late on Tuesday, there were reports that Kuwait might be preparing to do the same. But why? And what are all these military movements for? Under the terms of the Joint Peninsula Shield established in 1990 under the umbrella of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), a six-nation regional organisation of Sunni Gulf states, any member state of the GCC can request military assistance from another should they find themselves facing external threats. However, in this case the threat to Bahrain, if there is one, is an internal one, and "the idea of gathering together to protect a government against its own people seems to be quite another thing" besides what was planned for under the Peninsula Shield arrangement, commented Jane Kinninmont, senior research fellow and Bahrain expert at the London-based think tank Chatham House. Indeed, on this occasion it seems that it has been other members of the GCC, chief among them Saudi Arabia, that have become anxious over the sustained challenges to the rule of Bahrain's king Hamad Bin Eissa Al-Khalifa and hence have decided to interfere lest the contestation in Bahrain spirals out of control, threatening the rulers of neighbouring states. "This is the initial phase," a Saudi official said of Monday's troop movements. "Bahrain will get whatever assistance it needs. This is open-ended." Open-ended it may indeed turn out to be, as long as Saudi reactions to the protests in Bahrain are seen more in terms of concern for Saudi Arabia's own stability than they are for that of Bahrain. Saudi Arabia, the regional patron of Sunni Islam, has been troubled by its own Shia minority in recent weeks, members of which have been holding protests every Thursday and Friday in towns and villages a short drive across the border from the Bahrain causeway. "It is in the Saudis' interest that nothing serious happens in Bahrain, because it would embolden similar protests in its own eastern provinces," Christopher Davidson, a specialist on the Gulf monarchies at the UK's Durham University said. The Saudi move to send in its troops was not warmly received by the Bahraini opposition this week either, with thousands of protesters marching from the Pearl Square roundabout in the Bahraini capital Manama towards the Saudi embassy on Tuesday to express their rejection of it. Calling the troop movement an "invasion," members of the opposition, all of them from the country's Shia majority population, expressed their hostility to what they see as an encroachment on their country's sovereignty and an attempt to rescue the Bahraini regime from legitimate political pressure. "The Saudis are only adding fire to the situation," said one Bahraini protester, Hussein Ali, a 40-year-old mechanical engineer. "We consider the Gulf force to be that of an invader." The protesters, some wearing white to symbolise their readiness to die as martyrs, waved banners and chanted slogans against the king as they marched down deserted streets towards Manama's financial district. The protests have not only come from Bahraini Shias, however. Few people could have expected the GCC's powerful Shia neighbour Iran, which has never been shy about its historical claims to Bahrain, to remain silent about the Saudi move, the Iranians swiftly describing it as an "invasion". Rasool Nafisi, an Iran expert based in Virginia in the USA, said that "now that the Saudis have gone in, they may spur a similar reaction from Iran, with Bahrain becoming a battleground between Saudi Arabia and Iran. This may prolong the conflict rather than putting an end to it, and make it an international event rather than a local uprising." With events moving swiftly this week, a hasty announcement came from the government in Bahrain to the effect that martial law was being declared in the tiny Gulf state by royal decree, the decision granting almost unlimited power to the kingdom's security apparatus, mostly made up of the country's Sunni elite. Hours after the announcement, the whole scene turned bloody with at least five protesters being killed and hundreds wounded in the worst ever crackdown by Bahraini forces on protesters in an attempt to clear out Pearl square, the symbolic centre of the nation. Helicopters buzzed overhead as youths hurled petrol bombs at police and scattered when new rounds of teargas hit. Riot police blocked access to Manama's Salmaniya hospital, where many civilian casualties had previously been treated. "This is a war of annihilation. This does not happen even in wars and this is not acceptable," Abdel-Jalil Khalil, a senior politician in Bahrain's largest Shia party Wefaq, said. Khalil told Reuters by telephone that, apart from clearing protesters from the Pearl roundabout, troops had fanned out across Bahrain, cutting off streets and arresting or firing at people who tried to cross. Khalil said that private homes and funeral parlours were receiving casualties as troops had surrounded several hospitals and called on qualified doctors to head to their nearest health centre to help treat casualties. Over recent days, the protesters had begun to move from their encampment at the Pearl Square roundabout, to the actual seat of power at the royal court and financial district. As the Saudi troops moved in on Monday, protesters controlling the main highway said that they were determined not to back down. Local television showed footage of wounded civilians, but it was difficult to pin down precise numbers of casualties as rumours spread across the electronic media. Meanwhile, the capital's financial district, a regional banking hub, was deserted for a third day running except for anti-government protesters. Shops were shuttered and Sunni and Shia vigilantes were in the streets in various parts of the capital. "In order for the situation to return to normal, we have to establish order and security and stop the violations that have spread disturbances among the people of our country," Interior Minister Sheikh Rashed Al-Khalifa said on television, calling on Bahrainis to cooperate with the security forces. This week's events came after a month of protests against Bahrain's US-backed Sunni rulers on the part of the country's Shia majority, which makes up 70 per cent of the population. Sectarianism is not tolerated within autocratic Sunni kingdoms such as Bahrain, whose rulers' legitimacy is derived from their oil-based wealth and western support. There is also apprehension in the Gulf that any changes in such sensitive issues as the relations between Sunnis and Shias could well invite intervention from Shia Iran, threatening the survival of the region's ruling families. Nevertheless, the first sparks of the current wave of unrest were not much related to sectarianism, the main objective being to force the monarchy to surrender powers to the country's parliament. Yet, in the absence of any real response to these demands, the protesters' demands escalated into calls for the toppling of the entire royal family, ignoring the crown prince's bid for national dialogue. Bahrain is home to the US Navy's Fifth Fleet, and it has enjoyed US support at least since World War II. This support remained unchanged when the US eventually sided with the demonstrators in Egypt against the regime of former president Hosni Mubarak, in Bahrain supporting the established authorities instead while calling for restraint and democratic change. US Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who visited Bahrain on Friday, also urged more palpable steps towards democratic reform. However, behind the scenes US officials have admitted that they have assured Bahrain's royal family of their full support, with only lip-service being paid to gradual reform. In his visit to the region, Gates was also not able to miss the chance of exploiting concerns about the influence of Iran. "There is clear evidence that as the process [of Arab reform] is protracted, particularly in Bahrain, the Iranians are looking for ways to exploit it and create problems," he said. However, what Gates said would not have been new to the Sunni Gulf monarchs, who know quite well that "any gains the Shia opposition makes could open the window wide to Iranian intervention."
