Russia has confirmed its intention to supply Syria with cruise missiles, though these will do little to allow the country to match Israel's strength, reports Bassel Oudat from Damascus Russia announced last week that it intends to implement its agreement with Syria to supply Damascus with Yakhont anti-ship cruise missiles, the Russian news agency quoting Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov as saying that "the deal is in the implementation phase" and referring to the controversial contract, signed in 2007 but only revealed in September 2010, to supply Syria with a large shipment of the missiles. Russia has yet to confirm if a shipment of Yakhont missiles has already been sent to Syria, and it remains unclear when Russia intends to carry out the deal. However, this has not stopped Israel, technically at war with Syria, from voicing its condemnation of Moscow's going ahead with the deal, claiming that the missiles may end up in the hands of the Lebanese Shia group Hizbullah. Yakhont missiles have a range of 300km, and they can carry warheads weighing 200kg and skim only five metres above water level. This makes them difficult to detect and intercept even using modern radar. When the deal was uncovered last year, Israel threatened to sell arms to Russia's enemies in response. There were later reports that Russia had decided to cancel the deal to avoid sabotaging its ties with Israel, but Serdyukov's announcement has indicated that the deal is still on. In response, Israel's defense ministry warned that the missiles "are weapons that could fall into the hands of Hizbullah, which is what happened with other weapons acquired by Syria." The missiles posed a threat to Israel's navy off the coast of Lebanon, it said. According to Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, the deal "complicates the situation" in the Middle East and "does not help spread stability and peace in the region." A few years ago, Israel claimed that Chinese-made anti- ship missiles sold to Syria had been used to attack an Israeli destroyer during the 2006 war between Israel and Hizbullah. The US has been quick to join ranks with Israel in expressing its concern over the Russian missile deal. The US "shares the concerns of Israel regarding the proliferation of weapons which destabilise the region," stated Geoff Morrell, spokesman for the US department of defense. Morrell added that US defense secretary Robert Gates had told Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak that he had conveyed to the Russian defense minister the view that Russia "had the right to sell weapons to any country, but that we hoped that it would take into consideration the strategic dimensions of every deal." The US also threatened to take steps against Syria, including on its alleged nuclear programme. The International Security Information Service (ISIS), which works on nuclear non-proliferation, had distributed satellite photos confirming "suspicions about nuclear activity in Syria," Gates said. The chairwoman of the House foreign affairs committee, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, also expressed her "deep concern" at the satellite pictures. "These new aspects demonstrate that the Syrian regime did not give up its nuclear ambitions," she said, calling on US president Barack Obama to put pressure on Damascus through sanctions. A Syrian nuclear facility at Marj Al-Sultan 30km east of Damascus included a factory producing uranium linked to the alleged reactor at Deir Al-Zor in northeast Syria that Israel bombed in September 2007, she said. According to observers, Russia wants to maintain military exports to the Middle East despite the ongoing upheaval in the region. A source in the Russian military production industry said a few days ago that the collapse of regimes in the region could cost Russia some $10 billion in lost deals. Russia is the second biggest exporter of weapons in the world after the US, and the present deal with Syria has been estimated at around $300 million, including the delivery of some 72 Yakhont missiles. This makes it a relatively small deal, observers said, making it unlikely permanently to damage relations between Russia and Israel and the US. Five years ago, Russian arms sales to Syria came under the microscope after concerns were raised that Moscow could be assisting Damascus in its alleged nuclear programme. Russia's announcement of its commitment to the Yakhont deal coincided with the arrival of two Iranian military frigates in Syria for a brief visit after passing through the Suez Canal, the first time that Iranian military vessels had been permitted to pass through the Canal. Admiral Habibullah Sayari, the Iranian naval commander who accompanied the frigates, said Iran was willing to cooperate with the Syrian navy on military and civilian issues. Sayari stated that the visit by the Iranian frigates to Syria "would be repeated at the behest of either party." European diplomats in Damascus have expressed concerns that Syria will now start crossing further "red lines," but have asserted that Syrian military activities are intended as a show of force against Israel and that they probably have no intentions beyond that. Russia has not provided Syria with offensive or advanced weaponry, the diplomats said, and has only sold short- range defensive weapons to Damascus, as well as limited- capacity armoured vehicles that do not affect the military balance in the region. In September 2009, customs officials at Krasnodar airport in Russia stopped a shipment of arms heading to Syria containing parts for MiG-29 fighter jets. In October 2010, the chairman of Russia's arms export authority denied that Russia had signed an agreement to provide Syria with the latest versions of the MiG-31, adding that in 2008 it had turned down a deal to sell Scud missiles to Syria. The Syrians have not fought against Israel since the 1973 war, and in the nearly four decades since the country's alliances have undergone radical transformation, with Iran becoming its primary ally instead of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Russia. At the same time, the special relationships between Damascus and Hizbullah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine have added to the country's alliances. These relationships represent a threat to Israel, especially in the light of Iran's alleged nuclear programme, which the US claims could produce nuclear warheads in a few years' time. Any war by Israel against Lebanon, Syria or Gaza could therefore result in a wider, more dangerous war, a point which is not lost on Syria. The current disregard of Washington and Tel Aviv for the Israeli-Palestinian peace process could lead Syria to supply Hizbullah with missiles as a message to both capitals. For now, Damascus seems to be dismissive of US concerns and Israeli threats, although it must be aware that it is treading on dangerous ground. Syria will know that achieving a power balance in the region is a risky business, especially since any missile strike by Israel against Syria or Lebanon would be more destructive than an attack by Yakhont missiles on Israeli ships. However, Damascus may also believe that its possession of the missiles, and the system of alliances it has created, may cause Israel to think twice before contemplating attacking either Syria or Lebanon.
