The ouster of the Mubarak regime is being felt as a sudden strategic loss for Israel, the ramifications of which it will attempt to mitigate, writes Saleh Al-Naami For more than three weeks while in Cairo, the Arab affairs correspondent for Israel's Haaretz newspaper, Amira Haas, tried to find a single Egyptian who took part in the revolution against Hosni Mubarak to agree to be interviewed by her but couldn't. In an article published on Sunday, Haas writes that she arrived in Egypt during the revolution and attempted to interview the people behind the uprising, but she was always turned down because she was a national of a state that is occupying another people. Despite her frustration and inability to do her job as a journalist sent to cover the Egyptian revolution, Haas states that she is content that the Egyptian people are punishing Israeli "citizens" because their country is occupying another people. She adds that if the politicians who will rule Egypt in the future were to genuinely reflect the position of the Egyptian public, Israel would realise that it must change its policies towards the Palestinian people. But decision-makers in Tel Aviv did not arrive at the same conclusion as Haas. In fact, right now all they are concerned about is containing the repercussions of the Egyptian revolution and preventing it from being used to undermine Israeli interests. It is very apparent that the utmost that political and military circles in Tel Aviv are attempting to achieve right now is to maintain the current balance of power in the Arab world. Radio Arutz Sheva revealed that a white paper was prepared by the Israeli intelligence and political institutions in Israel as a roadmap to achieve this goal, in cooperation with the US. The radio quoted official sources as saying that the prime minister's office and the National Security Council in Tel Aviv, with the help of Mossad, military intelligence Aman, and the research centre affiliated to Israel's Foreign Ministry, have reached a comprehensive plan to avoid "the strategic harm" that could result from the Egyptian revolution. This white paper will be presented to the US administration to adopt and revise its policies accordingly. The plan states that the regime of ousted President Hosni Mubarak was the spinal cord of the "moderate axis" in the Arab world, but its fall should not damage this axis in a way that threatens Israeli and US interests. The authors of the white paper are very concerned about the fact that Hamas and Hizbullah believe the Egyptian revolution serves their interests, and the Israelis want the US administration to pressure decision-makers in Cairo not to give any "positive signals" to either Hamas or Hizbullah. They believe that in order to achieve this goal, several steps should be taken. First, that Egypt continues its policies towards Hamas and the Gaza Strip, and not to go beyond political interaction with the group, as practised under the Mubarak regime, so that Palestinian public opinion feels that what took place in Egypt "does not necessarily mean a positive development" for Hamas and resistance overall. Second, not withdrawing Arab support for the Palestinian Authority (PA) or abandoning Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. The white paper states that the Arab revolutions, especially the Egyptian one, weakened Abbas's government and there is a risk that the PA in Ramallah will collapse. If this were to occur, then it is predicted that Palestinians will re-launch armed attacks from the West Bank, which is a serious threat for Israel. Third, that Egypt should maintain its position on the Lebanese issue and not to alter its relationship with players on the Lebanese political scene. The white paper was written despite reassurances by the Obama administration to Netanyahu's government that it is lobbying Egyptian decision-making circles to convince them not to disrupt Egyptian-Israeli relations. Israeli television reported that Washington told the leaders of Jewish groups in the US that it is exerting great efforts to ensure that Egypt not only stays committed to the Camp David agreement, but also intense security cooperation, as was the case in the past between Tel Aviv and Cairo and which at times occurred with the participation of the US. According to US sources, the administration not only promised to pressure decision makers in Cairo, but also to obtain assurances from anyone who will contest the presidential elections or the political parties participating in the upcoming parliamentary elections to declare their commitment to the agreements signed with Israel, without any amendments. As part of this eye-opening report, Israeli television aired a clip of Obama adviser Dennis Ross meeting with Jewish American activists, telling them that the US administration is currently throwing all its weight on efforts to prevent US and Israeli interests from being harmed in light of the Egyptian revolution. The precautionary steps by Israel and the US's reassurances were not enough to convince most Israelis. General Uzi Dayan, former head of Israel's National Security Council and a close confidante of Netanyahu, predicted that Egypt would join the ranks of the "axis of evil". Speaking at the Industrial Trade Club in Tel Aviv on Sunday, Dayan said that Israel must cooperate with King Abdullah and stop negotiating with the PA and Syrians. He suggested that Jordan be handed authority over parts of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, in response to the revolutions sweeping across the Arab world, to create what he described as "the Hashemite Jordanian Palestinian Kingdom". This would be a "key strategic solution" in the region, he urged. Dayan, the nephew of former Israeli defence minister Moshe Dayan, emphasised the need for Israel to continue controlling the Jordan Valley region, which represents 20 per cent of the West Bank, and viewing it as the western border of Israel. At the same time, Tel Aviv should impose its sovereignty entirely on Jerusalem and deny the right of return for Palestinian refugees. He further asserted that the US has lost much of its influence in the region, claiming that developments in the Arab world have proven that Israel is the sole ally of the US and West in the region. "It is apparent that the Americans did not have a clear policy in the Middle East," he argued. "And current conditions demonstrate once again that Israel is its only stable democratic friend in the region." Meanwhile, Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Yaalon did not abide by Netanyahu's instructions not to comment about the situation in Egypt. Speaking to Israeli Radio on Sunday, Yaalon said that the historic transformations underway in the Arab world cause Israel to prepare for difficult days ahead. "The ouster of president Hosni Mubarak in this quick manner is a strategic and unexpected setback for Israel," he asserted. General Danny Rothschild, who previously served as head of research at military intelligence Aman, compared the collapse of the Mubarak regime to the collapse of the Bar Lev Line in the October War. Power circles in Israel realise that it is impossible to avoid the repercussions of Arab revolutions. Haaretz newspaper revealed that Netanyahu gave orders to look into alternative sources of energy other than oil, because developments in the Arab world indicate that the day may come when Israel will not have access to oil. The report said that Netanyahu asked the National Economic Council (NEC) chaired by Eugene Kandel to establish an independent entity at the NEC to research alternatives to oil. Kandel appointed Sagi Dagan as the head of the new entity, and Dagan already held several meetings with investors to fund research projects for alternative energy sources. At the same time, several strategic analysts in Israel called on the West to forge ahead with developing the "electric car", to make it a practical alternative to replace dependence on oil once and for all. It is evident that Israel and the US are unexpectedly very active behind the scenes to sabotage Egypt's glorious revolution and prevent it from achieving its goals. There are revelations every day about the scope of their clandestine efforts to end Arab dreams triggered by revolution. It is certain that Israel's worries do not end with the effects of the Egyptian revolution on the domestic scene in Egypt; there is greater concern that the revolution will comprehensively redraw the strategic environment for Israel in a way not in its favour.
