Following last week's collapse of the Al-Hariri government, Hizbullah may now assume responsibility for governing Lebanon, writes Franklin Lamb* in Beirut "In case no one has noticed, the Obama administration has just gifted Lebanon to Iran. Washington earlier presented Iraq, Afghanistan, the Gulf, and Pakistan. Could it be any clearer that Iran's strategic trump card is America's subservience to Israel? For Iran, Israel's stranglehold on the US government is the gift that just keeps on giving." With his comment, my neighbour, Lebanese human rights Ambassador Ali Khalil, declared that American hegemony in the region was on a slippery and descending slope and that this month's political manoeuvring in Lebanon had likely accelerated American withdrawal. My other neighbours in South Beirut appeared to be going to bed early on 12 January, following the day's events which had seen the collapse of Lebanon's US-Saudi and Israeli-backed government. Some, like my American and Lebanese roommates, were planning for quick evacuations should our Hizbullah neighbourhood-watch guys give us that special knock on the door. Two rapid raps and a shouted yalla! (let's go) and it would be time to head north fast without looking back. The reason would be because, like many here, some neighbours fear Israel might use this latest government crisis once again to invade Lebanon. On 12 January, our "government" electricity (and Internet) was cut from 10am until 2pm and again from 6pm to midnight. At least 10-hour daily power cuts are the norm south and north of the pro-US/Saudi Hamra "chic" district of Beirut, where three hours or less of daily power cuts are experienced. Spending many hours in candle light has probably made the unsubstantiated rumours even more unsettling. "The armed forces of Lebanon, Hizbullah and its allies, Turkey, Syria, Jordan, Israel and Iran are on military alert. The Americans may send battalions from Iraq," the young man who works in the phone shop near my flat whispered. I could not help noticing that some of the young men normally hanging out in our neighbourhood seemed to have vanished. Even my phone card guy was impatient with my wanting to recharge my phone. "Please hurry," he said. "I have an appointment and need to close my shop." THE ASSASSINATION OF RAFIK AL-HARIRI: The current government crisis has its origins in the 14 February 2005 Valentine's Day murder of Lebanon's then prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri and 20 others. The Bush administration declared Syria responsible, and saw the assassination as an opportunity to force the Al-Assad regime to drop its friendship with Washington's regional nemesis, Iran, and end its support for the National Lebanese Resistance led by Hizbullah. One of then US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice's State Department lawyers came up with the idea of using the UN Security Council to set up a Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) to try l-Hariri's killers and to hammer Syria into warming towards Israel and US projects for the region. What was not considered at the time, but later became a godsend from the points of view of Israel and the Bush administration, was leaked Tribunal information claiming that Hizbullah members might also have been involved in the assassination. Hardly believing, one imagines, their good luck, Israel and the US then abruptly changed direction and decided to use the newly formed Special Tribunal to rid themselves of Hizbullah once and for all, as well as to correct Syria's behaviour, believing that the Syrian government would also be indicted. The pressure on Hizbullah has caused it to condemn what it claims are false witnesses, and it has strongly urged the Lebanese government to open a case against them and not allow the STL, which it and others believe has became fatally politicised in its attempts to rush to judgement, to receive Lebanese government cooperation. Hizbullah's adversaries have hailed the Tribunal, even if Lebanon's stability is endangered. After nearly 14 months of trying to get the government of Lebanese prime minister Saad Al-Hariri seriously to reconsider its positions on the STL, the Hizbullah-led opposition gave the majority the ultimatum of either calling a cabinet meeting by 12 January to discuss the STL, or seeing the resignation of the opposition members of the cabinet. What Hizbullah and its allies wanted was for Al-Hariri to convene a special session of the cabinet to consider whether to stop payment of Lebanon's 49 per cent share of the financing of the STL, whether to withdraw the Lebanese judges from the Tribunal, whether to end cooperation with the STL, and whether to take action against the "false witnesses" Hizbullah claims are linked to the UN probe into Rafik Al-Hariri's killing. Under enormous pressure from Washington, Paris and Riyadh, Al-Hariri baulked. The opposition quickly resigned. Under Article 69 of the Lebanese constitution, the resignation of one-third or more of the cabinet automatically leads to the collapse of the government. This was the first time in Lebanon's politically turbulent history that a government has collapsed under pressure of resignations from one-third or more of its members. In order to secure an 11th resignation, to add to Hizbullah's 10, and to bring down the pro-US government, Hussein Khalil, a key aide to Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, called Sayed Hussein, the cabinet appointee of Lebanese President Michel Suleiman. Khalil reportedly conveyed Nasrallah's greetings and his hope that Hussein would decide what to do on the basis of his conscience. Hussein's resignation from the government quickly followed, and Al-Hariri's premiership ended while he was sitting with President Obama on a visit to the White House. WHAT THE GOVERNMENT'S TOPPLING MEANS: Regional players have reacted more or less predictably to the collapse of Al-Hariri's government, with the US accusing Iran, Syria and Hizbullah of "blackmail", the French warning Syria that is would be held to account if there was violence in Lebanon, and the British warning of long-term dangers. British Foreign Secretary William Hague said in a statement that "this is an extremely serious development, which could have grave implications for Lebanon and for regional stability." Israeli Foreign Ministry officials said they were "carefully following events" in Lebanon following the resignations and that "the Lebanese understand that an attempt by extremists to disturb the peace may turn out to be a perilous gamble," according to Israeli TV Channel 10. Israel is being accused today in Lebanon of trying to provoke strife and to gain advantage from the governmental crisis. After the Israeli kidnapping of Lebanese shepherd Sharbel Khouri from near Rmeish on 12 January (he was released 24 hours later), the Israel navy entered Lebanese waters, and on the afternoon of 13 January Israeli warplanes flew over Baalbek, Nabatiyeh and Marjayoun. These incursions constitute Israel's 7,269th and 7,270th violation of Lebanese sovereignty since the August 2006 adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 ordering it to stay out of Lebanon. Protests from the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and the UN have had no effect on Israel, while Washington remains mute on the subject of Israeli violations of Lebanese sovereignty. Lebanese Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) member and Hizbullah supporter Jebran Bassil, who was also the country's minister of energy until 12 January, blamed Washington for the fact that Saudi-Syrian efforts to prevent the resignations had reached a dead end. "The other side bowed to external, especially American pressure, ignoring the advice and wishes of the Saudi and Syrian sides," Bassil said. For his part, Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader Walid Jumblatt seemed to agree with the FPM position, and he attributed the failure of mediation efforts by Saudi Arabia and Syria to the "forces of darkness", alluding to leading Western powers. "It appears that the forces of darkness got involved and stymied the Syrian-Saudi initiative, as a result of which we would have seen the blocking of the negative repercussions of the STL indictment." Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea blamed the rival 8 March camp for seeking what he called "Stalin-like" powers, accusing it of "seeking to steal the prerogatives of the president and the prime minister." WHAT NEXT FOR HIZBULLAH: Meanwhile, the Hizbullah-led opposition has a majority in the 128-member Lebanese parliament as a result of the last elections, and this allows it to name its own candidate for the post of prime minister during the president's soon-to-be-announced and binding parliamentary consultations. At noon on 13 January, Hizbullah bloc leader, MP Mohamed Raad, announced that the opposition would name "a personality with a history of national resistance to head the new government". Some are speculating that Hizbullah might propose the long-time Sunni leader Omar Karami, a moderate and self-effacing man with strong Syrian, progressive and popular support. Whatever it decides to do, Hizbullah may well take its time as it ponders the major responsibilities that would envelop the resistance movement should it decide to govern Lebanon. Some of its supporters are urging Hizbullah to accept the daunting challenge, to implement its 2009 manifesto and its recent election platforms and to end the mafia-like corruption among some of Lebanon's political leaders. Several NGOs representing Lebanese civil society are also urging Hizbullah to do more for Lebanon's increasingly fragile environment, fix Lebanon's serious water, electricity and infrastructure problems once and for all, and let the Lebanese public decide if Hizbullah is true to its cause and warrants its future electoral support. Others continue to lobby the party immediately to end Lebanon's and the Arabs' shame and grant Palestinian refugees the internationally mandated basic civil rights to work and to own a home in Lebanon. Should Hizbullah head a Lebanese government, Palestinian prospects for achieving these elementary rights will look a lot brighter. * The writer is director of Americans Concerned for Middle East Peace and a board member of the Sabra Shatila Foundation.
