With the secession of the south of the country seeming certain as a result of this week's referendum, the north of Sudan will now cement closer ties with Iran, says Amani Maged Since the country's independence in 1954, Sudan and Iran have enjoyed a fairly solid relationship, with the political dimension receiving higher priority than the economic and cultural ones. As a result of the almost-certain secession of the south of Sudan following this week's referendum, this relationship is now certain to change. The future of Sudanese-Iranian relations will be determined by a number of factors that date back to 1986, following the rise of Al-Sadeg Al-Mahdi to the premiership in Khartoum. After a freeze in the relations between the two countries during the Iraq- Iran war for much of the 1980s, a visit to Tehran by Al-Mahdi initiated a thaw that brought the restoration of full diplomatic ties. The relationship continued to improve with the rise of Omar Al-Bashir to power following the 1989 coup. One of the most salient manifestations of the closer ties was the growing frequency of official visits. Both Iranian president Hashemi Rafsanjani and his successor president Mohamed Khatemi visited Khartoum, and President Al-Bashir reciprocated by visiting Iran several times. An instrumental factor in pushing the countries closer together during the Al-Bashir era was the fact that both felt targeted by the West. According to Iranian sources, the economic and political pressures exerted on Khartoum and Tehran by the US, on the pretexts of their fostering terrorism or violating human rights, compelled them to coordinate positions against what they regarded as a common enemy bent on undermining the Islamist revolutionary model. For its part, the Sudanese government believed that this model was the key to Iranian success, and it was determined to emulate it. Another factor that worked to strengthen relations between Khartoum and Tehran in the Rafsanjani era was the latter's efforts to bridge the views of Sudan and other African nations such as Eritrea and Uganda. For Iran, Sudan was a means to resolving some of its problems with the Arab world, with parts of which it had experienced episodes of tension. It was also a stepping stone into sub-Saharan Africa, where Iran perceived a new window of opportunity. While the two countries' sense of common destiny and the need for mutual support bolstered their political relationship, economic relations lagged far behind. Annual trade between the two countries today does not exceed $150 million, though observers believe that there will soon be a leap in their economic cooperation, in view of the broad array of agreements recently concluded between them. In addition to agreements signed in the areas of industry and technology, education and training, and defence, the two countries have also signed agreements involving the oil and gas sectors, dams and water management, insurance, cultural cooperation, customs, social care, and youth and sports. Tehran has also committed itself to the construction of a large commercial centre in Khartoum. Cultural relations, too, have been very limited, barely exceeding Tehran's sponsorship of a handful of Sudanese students at Iranian universities. However, this too is likely to change soon. Yet, what has most drawn the attention of observers and sparked particular concern in Tel Aviv has been the possibility of developing military alliance between Iran and Sudan. According to a report on an Israeli website, Tehran is enhancing its military cooperation with Khartoum, with the aim of being within closer reach of Gaza and of uranium mines in Chad. The report states that the Iranian defence minister and his Sudanese counterpart recently signed a set of military cooperation agreements, one of which will grant Iran the right to establish a military base in Sudan. Under other agreements, Iran will purportedly offer military assistance to Sudan, which will include helping the Sudanese military make the transition from Chinese and Russian weapons to Iranian arms and ammunition and train Sudanese army units operating in Darfur. The two countries also apparently intend to exchange military delegations, preparatory to creating coordination mechanisms between the different branches of their armed forces. Iran is also to help Sudan plan and develop a number of strategic assets, such as oil fields, seaports and dams on the Nile. During a tour of military sites in northern Israel, the Israeli Minister of Defence Ehud Barak indicated that intelligence sources were keeping him abreast of developments in Iranian-Sudanese military cooperation. While some analysts remain sceptical about the substance of the Israeli report, others have noted that Tehran has come to attach vital importance to enhancing the level of defence cooperation with Sudan. Therefore, many observers predict that the years to come will not only bring closer military cooperation between the two countries, but also a concrete Iranian military presence in the north of Sudan. They argue that Iran believes that the "colonialist forces", as Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad refers to the West, are bent on fragmenting Sudan in order to keep the country from performing its true role in the development of Africa and the Islamic world. The Iranian president, who received a letter from Al-Bashir last year complaining of such Western designs, has stated that the reason foreign powers have criticised the Sudanese government and people is because these are fighting to defend the country's national pride, interests and territorial unity. He took advantage of a meeting with his Sudanese counterpart to add that the spirit of concord and solidarity that prevails between Iran and Sudan stemmed from the fact that both Sudanese and Iranians were "devout and revolutionary peoples". That Iran and Sudan will move closer in the post- secession phase will come as no surprise to many observers. That they will extend their cooperation further into the military and strategic domains is also to be expected. Forthcoming developments will soon enable observers to form a clearer picture of the shape this enhanced cooperation will take.
