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The axis of evil and the conspiracy theory
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 06 - 01 - 2011

Inevitably, conspiracy theories abound about the perpetrators of the attack on Al-Qidisayn Church. Jailan Halawi sifts through the debris
It is this time of the year when Christmas decorations and New Year's celebrations are everywhere, when Egypt's churches wear their best attire for worshippers celebrating one of Christianity's most important feasts. Yet instead of enjoying a week of celebrations Egypt's Christians are mourning their dead following the terrorist attack on Alexandria's Al-Qidisayn (The Two Saints) Church less than half an hour into the New Year. The suicide attack, which claimed the lives of 22 citizens and left more than 75 injured, sent shock waves through Egypt.
Preliminary investigations pointed to a booby- trapped car, thought to be a green Skoda found at the scene of the crime. Later the theory was discounted, replaced by the scenario of a suicide bomber wearing an explosive belt. The green Skoda turned to be owned by the father of a young Muslim chemist who is currently receiving medical treatment and will be questioned by investigators as soon as it is possible. Minister of Interior Habib El-Adli said yesterday that the attack was conducted by either a bomb hidden in a bag or an explosive belt.
Meanwhile, surveillance of all land and sea ports has been intensified. Scores of suspects are being questioned and statements by eyewitnesses examined. Some witnesses say they saw a tall, fair man rushing out of a car before the explosion. Others say they heard two consecutive explosions. In an attempt to aid investigators as they follow all possible threads billionaire businessman Naguib Sawiris has offered a reward of LE1 million for information that might help find the culprits.
The atrocity has sparked a flurry of speculation about those responsible. Did it involve Al-Gamaa Al-Islamiya, Jihad or Al-Qaeda? The incident came two months after the Iraqi Al-Qaeda branch threatened to attack Egyptian Christians if the church did not free two Christian women it claimed were imprisoned in convents after converting to Islam. The threat was accompanied by a list of possible targets. The Two Saints church was among them.
"Ninety-nine per cent the suicide bomber is an Al-Qaeda affiliate who hails either from Pakistan or Afghanistan, who used an explosive belt," security expert Sameh Seif Al-Yazal told Al-Ahram Weekly. Other security reports deny the involvement of suspects of Asian origin.
Al-Yazal noted it is the first time an explosive belt has been used in Egypt. Though the investigation is in its early stages it has already been established that the belt was made locally and had a hand timer. However, the plan and training of the bomber "came from abroad", insists Al-Yazal, though "we cannot exclude the possibility of Egyptian elements being involved."
What the attack signals, argues Al-Yazal, is a shift in Al-Qaeda's technique. Instead of targeting American and Israeli interests the group is now directing its energies towards stirring strife in Egypt.
Amr El-Shobaky, an expert on militant groups at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, concurs: "All fingers point towards Al-Qaeda which works through small cells in countries where it has failed to establish a base," he told the Weekly.
El-Shobaky believes the attack was orchestrated by either a handful of Al-Qaeda affiliates or else a lone militant who has embraced the group's ideology. He cites the aborted attempt of 23-year-old Nigerian Omar Al-Farouk, who attempted to blow up a transatlantic flight in December 2009, and the 2001 attempt made by Richard Reid, the "shoe bomber", to down a passenger plane, as examples of the latter. He does not believe Al-Qaeda itself has established a foothold in Egypt, arguing it can do so only in states like Iraq, Yemen and Somalia, where chaos is the norm.
In recent months tensions between Muslims and Christians have flared on several occasions. There were demonstrations after authorities halted construction work at St Mary and St Michel's Church in the Omraniya district of Giza. According to the authorities, a building licence was granted for a community centre and instead a church was built. It is an allegation the local Coptic community denies. They say they were in possession of the correct licence.
Muslims protested following the disappearance of Camilia Shehata Zakher, the wife of a priest who was rumoured to have converted to Islam only to be held captive by the church.
El-Shobaki warns that unless accumulated tensions between Muslims and Christians are handled sensitively "the attack will exacerbate an already fragile situation".
"What we are seeing is both cause and effect. Both sides have fanatic elements that have been spreading their extreme ideologies for years. The Copts have reacted to what extreme Muslim scholars and their followers have long mooted," said El-Shobaky.
Cardiologist Nabil Fawzi has a different opinion. He believes that Egypt's Christians have been misled by fanatic statements coming from their expatriate counterparts.
Inevitably, conspiracy theories have arisen over invisible hands behind the attack, with Mossad repeatedly fingered, not least because of revelations by a former head of Israel's intelligence agency that millions of dollars had been spent in an attempt to foment religious conflicts in Egypt and southern Sudan and the confession of an Egyptian arrested for spying for Israel that he had been instructed to recruit agents to promote religious conflict.
Major General Hassan El-Zayat and former assistant minister of interior Raouf El-Manawi both stress that while it remains necessary to address the core reasons behind the attack foreign involvement could not be ruled out. El-Zayat argues that Al-Qaeda does not possess the resources to launch such an attack in Egypt.
Angry voices have been raised among Egypt's Coptic community arguing that the security apparatus failed to secure churches even after receiving specific threats. Security sources interviewed by the Weekly say that while there might have been some failure "there can never", according to Al-Yazal, "be a water tight security system". The task of the security apparatus, he explained, is to bring crime to a minimal level "for no system in the world can eliminate crime".
In an electronic survey conducted by the Weekly 90 per cent of respondents believed the attack to be an act of terrorism that possibly originated abroad.
And among the respondents, engineer Lamia perhaps best summed up the majority feeling.
"I live in Cleopatra Street and used to complain about traffic jams and the daily burden of finding a place to park with two schools, two hospitals and the Mar Morqos Church nearby. For me, this was my daily nightmare. Following the devastating attack I noticed that the church had removed its decorations, had more or less closed down, turning off its lights. The scene saddened me deeply. It felt morbid. An abandoned church in Christmas week feels like not being able to pray taraweeh [night prayers] in Ramadan. Cancelling Christmas Eve celebration feels like Eid Al-Fitr came and went and no one noticed.
I wanted to say Merry Christmas to all my Christian friends but it is not merry anymore. They [the terrorists] stole our joy, Muslims and Christians."


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