Mohamed Hafez Abdel-Meguid* asserts that a genuine national dialogue in Yemen is its last chance to survive On 24 December 2009, Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh called for a national dialogue with all political forces in the country, to be held under the auspices of the Shura Council at the end of January. The dialogue aims to end the ongoing clashes and multiple battles on various fronts inside the country. These include the southern secessionist movement, the Houthi rebellion in the north and the growing Al-Qaeda presence inside the country. The international and regional community fully supports Sanaa and its regime on all three fronts. The turmoil in the south broke out three years ago, originating from the forced retirement of military officers and their seizure of state-owned land. By mid-2009 the southern movement had begun to demand secession and the re- establishment of a southern state. In the north, there is the Houthi rebellion, led by Abdel-Malik Al-Houthi in the Saadah region 250km north of the capital Sanaa. After six rounds of war the battle has spread to other governorates, mainly Hajja and Amran. Meanwhile, Al-Qaeda has found safe haven in Yemen for its operations after fleeing Pakistan and Afghanistan, where international forces are in hot pursuit of its operatives. Yemen's national dialogue is the natural response to many urgent domestic and international needs. Domestically, the government is still at perpetual war with the Houthi rebels in the north. It has neither won the battle nor contained the protests led by the so-called southern mobility movement, and while it is distracted by these armed struggles, Al-Qaeda has found refuge and a fertile environment for growth to increase operations in Yemen. In fact, Al-Qaeda has declared its support of the southern movement, according to Al-Qaeda leader in Yemen Nasser Al-Wahithi. At the same time, it said it would participate with the government in the war against the Houthi rebels, acting as if Al-Qaeda were a legitimate force in Yemen. Despite support for the regime from abroad, the north and south rebels have been able to resist government forces for three reasons, according to official sources. First, overseas support for their causes, whether through illegal groups and organisations, such as Iranian ones, aid the Houthi movement. The southern mobility movement also receives funds from expatriate nationals and southern leaders. Secondly, there is wide regional and international media coverage of the wars on both fronts. This, along with the fact that government efforts are spread too thinly on four fronts -- battling the south, north, Al-Qaeda and the economic crisis -- enable the rebels to keep up their resistance. The international community, especially influential regional powers, have been very supportive of the Yemeni regime since the crises in the north and south erupted. This is based on the belief that the country's security is rooted in maintaining the integrity of Yemen, with a strong central government necessary in the face of these rebellious forces. The pressing international need for a national dialogue stems from the fact that Houthi rebels have already raided isolated villages across the Saudi Arabian border, southern insurgents have called for secession, and Al-Qaeda agents attempted to bomb a US airline en route from Amsterdam to Detroit. In response, the UK and US announced an international conference in London at the end of this month to discuss the Yemen quandary. The Yemeni regime received the news with great apprehension, out of fear that the conference could reach decisions which would interfere with the sovereignty and independence of Yemen. In reaction, Saleh called for national dialogue. The success of the national dialogue requires that the regime be serious about the process and remove any obstacles in its way. It must also seek solutions which are acceptable to all national forces, without excluding anyone, and provide an adequate atmosphere for success through balanced media coverage. The regime must also share the responsibility of holding a viable dialogue with other political parties. It is very likely the regime will meet all these requirements since it appears that there are no alternatives to achieve security, especially after years of failing to overcome and resolve these crises. Success is also dependent on the leaders of the southern mobility movement and their willingness to accept solutions reached at the national dialogue. This relies on their ability to assess the dynamics in Yemen and the problems it suffers, renounce their struggle for independence and accept the insistence of regional and international forces on the unity of the country. The dialogue represents a valuable opportunity for the leaders of the south to bring their demands to the table for discussion and secure agreement on minimal requirements for peace. This is especially necessary in light of public, regional and international resolve to maintain the unity of Yemen. The southern mobility movement will lose much of its energy if its leaders reject the compromises reached during dialogue with the southern governorates. They must already realise that they lost much domestic and foreign support when they called for independence. They would do well not to rely on leading figures from the south inside or outside Yemen, since many national political forces realise that the disadvantages of unity far outweigh the advantages of southern secession. The southern mobility movement also lost the financial and moral support of Yemenis abroad once Saudi Arabia entered the war against the Houthis, and issued a warning to Yemenis within its territories who support rebellions inside Yemen. In fact, thousands of leading businessmen in Saudi Arabia are of Hadrami origins in Yemen. If the leaders of the south reject the outcome of the dialogue, they will place themselves in a vulnerable position. The third factor in ensuring the success of the dialogue is the seriousness of the Houthi rebels, who initially accepted dialogue with the regime and embraced the five conditions of ceasefire between the two sides. This suggests that the rebels are drained by a war on two fronts, the Yemeni army inside Yemen and Saudi Arabian forces on the border. The rebellion is under siege because of Sanaa's ability to cut off supplies, combined with the drop in support for their cause among the international community. This has left the rebels tired and disillusioned, making them more amenable to finding an exit strategy through dialogue and accepting the government's conditions. Internal developments in Yemen and international support for the regime necessitate a resolution which maintains Yemeni solidarity and integrity of its borders. This can only be achieved through reconciliation between the regime and the warring factions, continued Arab regional and international support, prevention of foreign interference while assisting various political forces to reach a solution. A serious dialogue among influential political powers based on observing national interests, benefiting the people, and achieving security and stability of a united Yemen is the only way to go. Arriving at a unanimous national agenda for Yemen would help the country overcome the current crises through social integration. This entails socio-economic equality between north and south, rallying political forces around national loyalty, enhancing the sense of national integration and identity, as well as participation in developing public discourse. All these elements would no doubt create consensus across the country on all national issues, and hence resolve all the troubles plaguing Yemen. * The writer is a researcher at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies.
