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First guns, then butter
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 04 - 02 - 2010

The Yemeni government now has the blessing of the West and, along with it, the promise of arms and economic aid, says Mohamed Hafez
The London conference on Yemen on 28 January brought together 21 countries and five international agencies. London called the gathering an "international meeting" to indicate that it does not rise to the level of a summit or a conference. The event lasted only two hours and was not expected to arrive at any concrete results.
The goal of the meeting was to reiterate support for the Yemen government in its difficult battle against terrorism, discuss crises currently facing the country and find ways to assist the ruling regime in overcoming these problems in the form of military and economic aid. It was also an opportunity for donor countries, especially Gulf and other Arab states as well as Russia, to discuss what is taking place in Yemen with particular focus on economic development and support for Yemen in various areas.
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown initiated the call for the conference at the beginning of January, soon after the failed attempt to blow up a Delta Airlines flight on a trip from Amsterdam to Detroit on 25 December 2009. Although it failed, this attempt propelled terrorism, and the Al-Qaeda brand name, back to the top of the world's agenda, especially in the US and Europe.
Britain's initiative to hold a conference on Yemen raised suspicions about the intentions of the superpowers. Countries in the region fear international military intervention in Yemen, as do the Yemenis.
At the same time, Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh invited all national political groups to a national dialogue. The Yemeni government also stopped issuing entry visas to foreigners at airports to prevent the infiltration of terrorist elements.
Some 150 religious scholars, mostly described as close to the regime, signed a statement threatening to go on a jihad if Yemen was subjected to what they described as aggression or invasion. They declared their rejection of any form of military or security intervention, or the establishment of military bases on Yemeni territory or in its regional waters.
Meanwhile, the tribes of Yemen, headed by chief Sheikh Sadeq Al-Ahmar, warned against a new Sykes-Picot agreement at the London meeting which would partition Yemen. Al-Ahmar said that the goal of inviting Yemeni chiefs and dignitaries to a meeting should be to bring together the tribes, political parties and forces in Yemen to put their differences aside and unite in the face of the danger facing the country today.
Yemen's Foreign Minister Abu Bakr Al-Qarbi visited the US on the eve of the London conference to confirm his country's clear position regarding Al-Qaeda.
In the end, the two-hour meeting in London did not accomplish much more than what Yemen expected. Primarily, on the political plane the international community confirmed its support for the unity and integrity of Yemeni territories, and respect for the country's sovereignty and independence. It also rejected any foreign interference in its internal affairs, supposedly giving the regime a free hand to resolve domestic problems -- whether with northern Houthi rebels or widespread insurgency in the south -- in any way it sees fit, and within its political and military capabilities. The only options for rebels now are to either submit to the government or enter an endless gruelling war.
Secondly, the meeting proposed an international economic conference on Yemen to be hosted by Saudi Arabia on 27 and 28 February. This will be attended by Gulf states and other donor countries to debate the obstacles preventing the effective delivery of assistance to Yemen. This would open the door to actively engage the Yemeni government in a dialogue, especially regarding priority reform steps.
At the same time, "Friends of Yemen" was launched to address a wide array of challenges facing the country. The first meeting will be held in the region in March, where Yemen and its friends will confer on applying the country's 10-point national reform plan. In this fashion, the US has relegated the responsibility of Yemen's economic aid to Gulf states and other donors.
Third, and in terms of military and security matters, the London meeting confirmed the international community's support of Sanaa's efforts to fight Al-Qaeda and other forms of terrorism and boost the security of its airspace and borders. This includes all operations on its borders by land or sea, such as the capabilities of Yemen's coast guard. The Pentagon pledged more special forces for Yemen, as well as logistic and intelligence assistance to Yemeni forces. US officials said that the Pentagon has sent more special ops forces to Yemen to help in the war on terror by training the Yemeni military. The Pentagon also has a plan to enhance military cooperation in this area and increase the number of operations using unmanned Predator planes in Yemen.
The Washington Post reported that expanding military assistance is coupled with increased funding, as aid rose from $70 million last year to nearly $200 million this year. US military officials also revealed that the Obama administration is considering creating a fund for the sole purpose of equipping, assisting and training Yemeni security forces to fight Al-Qaeda along the same lines as the fund created last year for Pakistan.
The meeting is considered a substantial reward to Yemen and its regime from its partners in the war against terrorism, the US and Britain. Collaboration began nine years ago after the 9/11 attacks and increased in recent years when Yemen, with assistance from Washington, began to implement a new US policy in its war against terror. The new strategy is war by proxy which is unlike the ongoing US war in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq. The new approach is the result of growing numbers of terrorists and proliferating terrorism hotbeds, as well as the immense difficulties facing direct US military intervention.
With the help of the US, Sanaa recently carried out several successful military operations targeting Al-Qaeda, including in the areas of Arhab, Shaboh, Maarab and Abin. The operations left 68 members of Al-Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula dead and tens injured. Accordingly, Washington felt there was a need to reward Sanaa with political and economic assistance to confront its domestic problems, and enable it to achieve social development to ensure it remains a strategic ally to the US.
Washington took upon itself the responsibility of providing military and security assistance to Yemen, while Gulf states committed themselves to aiding Yemen economically at the February conference scheduled in Saudi Arabia.


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