Amira Howeidy examines what the failure of Egypt's biggest opposition force to win a single seat means Despite the widespread pessimism of sceptics ahead of last Sunday's elections, zero was one word that was not used in assessing the Muslim Brotherhood's chances. The results could not have been a greater contrast to the group's performance in the 2005 elections which were held over three rounds. In round one alone they secured easy wins in 60 seats. A security clampdown on the Brotherhood's candidates in the second and third rounds hampered their progress yet still they ended with 88 seats in parliament, the biggest electoral gain in the MB's history. Official statements, and information leaked to the media as early as last spring, suggested that a growing policy of zero tolerance towards the group would result in "minimal" representation in the coming parliament. That said, most observers estimated anything between 15 to 50 MPs. A report published in the privately owned Al-Masry Al-Yom on 14 May by Islamic expert Ammar Ali Hassan alleged that a "deal" between the ruling National Democratic Party and the opposition had been concluded in an attempt to marginalise the Brotherhood in the 2010-2015 parliament. Both the NDP and the opposition parties denied the accusation but it would not go away, rearing its head once again after Wafd leader El-Sayed El-Badawi purchased the anti- government Al-Dostour newspaper and fired its editor Ibrahim Eissa, a staunch critic of President Hosni Mubarak. While officials denied any involvement in El-Badawi's decision to fire Eissa, the saga was viewed as a gift to the regime in return for which Al-Wafd expected a bigger share of parliamentary seats. The leftist Tagammu Party was also accused of siding with the regime against the MB, again in return for parliamentary seats. With just two seats till now, it seems that the Wafd miscalculated disastrously. The Tagammu did even worse, with one seat. Both parties have 15 candidates in next Sunday's run-offs. In contrast, the MB had 26 candidates competing in the run-offs. But in a surprise announcement on Wednesday both the Wafd and the Brotherhood said they will withdraw from the second round in protest of the wide-scale "rigging" and "blatant" irregularities that preceded and marred election day. The opposition constituted 25 per cent of the outgoing parliament, 20 per cent of which comprised Brotherhood MPs. After sweeping almost 95 per cent of round one, the NDP is expected to form a majority in the coming parliament holding over 90 per cent of its seats, which is precisely the statement both the MB and the Wafd wanted to make by pulling out, said political analyst Diaa Rashwan. "This will impact the presidential elections in 2011," he told Al-Ahram Weekly, "who will compete with the NDP's candidate for the presidency after the Wafd pulled out of parliament?" he added. "This is the biggest blow to the regime in 20 years," said Rashwan. The Brotherhood fielded 130 candidates in the 28 November elections, including 17 women competing for the women's 64-seat quota. The three main opposition parties together fielded 340. In an 80-minute long press conference on Tuesday the Brotherhood launched a series of attacks against the authorities, accusing the NDP and the security apparatus of "rigging" the elections. The group's supreme guide, Mohamed Badie, said that the movement The MB's Tuesday conference was the first official acknowledgement that it scored zero in the first round. Badie joined several MB leaders on the podium to expose the "irregularities" and "violations" carried out by the authorities on election day. Sunday's violations of the law and constitution will "overshadow every election" in the future, said Badie, vowing to take legal action against "all those who contributed to hijacking the people's will" during the elections. Addressing the "Egypian nation", Badie accused the authorities of "falsifying" the "will of the people." He launched a scathing attack of the regime saying its performance was far from responsible and that it "chose to choose its own interests over the nation's interests" thus "compromising [Egypt's] future." Election day was marred by violence and widespread claims of rigging, evidence of which appeared in several videos that have been broadcast on TV stations and circulated widely on the Internet. Footage showed people stuffing ballot boxes, attacking voting stations, opening and destroying ballot boxes, in some cases by setting them on fire. Independent watchdogs say 9 people were killed in connection with the violence that erupted in dozens of constituencies across the nation. Outgoing Brotherhood MP Mohamed El-Beltagui displayed dozens of charred voting cards during the press conference and posed with them as tens of photographers rushed to snap shots. The Brotherhood has filed 15 cases in court contesting the legitimacy of the elections, according to the group's lawyer Mukhtar El-Ashri. He said that before polling day Egyptian courts had ordered a halt to the elections in 61 constituencies. On election day itself a number of administrative courts issued verdicts to halt the poll in 17 constituencies. Elections, however, went ahead in all of Egypt's 222 constituencies despite the verdicts. A total of 128 legal complaints have now been filed before courts by the MB and others, says El-Ashri. While the group blames the authorities for cheating them of votes its leaders have avoided addressing the contrast between their gains in 2005 -- at a time when Egypt and other Arab regimes were under pressure by the George Bush administration to "democratise" -- and today's zero outcome, in the absence of "foreign" pressure. So was the Brotherhood's election success five years ago dependent on the indirect help of Washington? "Absolutely not," the group's leader Essam El-Erian told Al-Ahram Weekly. "The US only serves its own and Zionist interests in the region. It never pressured for democracy." But didn't US pressure on Cairo help the MB in 2005 at all? The climate helped "create" a fairer election and "we made gains out of that," he replied. The question now is why "zero" rather than "five" or "seven"? The latter, after all, would still be a defeat for the group. Islamic movements expert Amr El-Shobaki of Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies is convinced that the authorities wanted to "make a point" to the group. The group's performance since 2005 has been "arrogant" and "condescending", provoking not only the authorities but also some of the opposition, argues El-Shobaki. "The Brotherhood adopted a defiant posture which wasn't quite in tune with the overall political set-up." In other words, he says, they are being "punished". In the 1995 elections the MB suffered a similar defeat, scoring zero in the first round and winning just one seat in the run-offs.
