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Fated to fail
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 07 - 05 - 1998


By Khaled Dawoud
"Today, the question is put to Mr Netanyahu: do you want to put the peace process back on track, or will you be held responsible for all the chaos and negative consequences that will follow the failure of this process?" The question was posed by Saeb Erekat, chief Palestinian negotiator, who insisted that the main achievement of London's two-day Middle East peace talks was to expose to the world just who is actually obstructing the peace process.
For Western analysts, the fact that US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright gave the Israeli premier only five days to accept American proposals for a 13.1 per cent withdrawal from the West Bank before yet another round of talks in Washington, this time chaired by President Bill Clinton, signifies US impatience at Netanyahu's intransigence.
But judging by the London experience and endless other rounds of US, European, Egyptian and Jordanian-mediated negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians since Netanyahu came to power two years ago, there can be no guarantees that the Washington meeting will produce any progress in a peace process that has been effectively paralysed for 14 months.
In addition, informed sources fear that Washington might put pressure on the Palestinians to accept Netanyahu's offer of a maximum 11 per cent withdrawal from the West Bank, on condition that this will be the last stage of redeployment before beginning final status talks. Should the Palestinians accept such a proposal they will enter final status negotiations with full control of just 14 per cent of the West Bank, civilian control of a further 25 per cent, and 40 per cent control in Gaza. And given the length of negotiations on interim issues and the early stages of withdrawal, Netanyahu has every reason to be confident that thornier issues such as settlements and the return of Palestinian refugees will be drawn out over innumerable stages, likely to occupy a decade or more.
Netanyahu has proved adept at finding excuses, something at which he will undoubtedly continue to excel. Arafat is not cracking down on Hamas, the number of Palestinian police is higher than stated in the Oslo agreements, the PLO charter must be changed, the US must guarantee that Arafat will not declare an independent state. And then, of course, there is his excuse of last resort, the need to consult with the hard-line members of his coalition, the very people who threatened to bring him down should he concede more than nine per cent of land to the Palestinians.
Probably those most annoyed by the London meetings were the British journalists and Whitehall officials who were forced to spend their 4 May Bank Holiday chaperoning the fruitless negotiations. The limousine diplomacy and convoys of cars carrying Madeleine Albright, Palestinian President Yasser Arafat and Netanyahu between their various hotels in central London proved to be nothing but a waste of time. Meanwhile, the entertaining puzzle for reporters who had nothing to do but to stand for long hours in front of different hotels was to argue over percentages, the nine per cent or 11 per cent offered by Israel, the 13.1 per cent demanded by the Americans and the 30 per cent stated in the Oslo agreements.
Even before the talks opened the parties involved were playing down expectations of any significant progress. Warnings that the failure of the London talks would signify "the death of the peace process" constitute, in the end, little more than catchy headlines easily ignored by Netanyahu. And with the US at the steering wheel of the peace process, Israel's prime minister remains confident that he will not be pressured into making concessions by a Democratic administration with its eyes firmly fixed on the next presidential elections.
And at British Prime Minister Tony Blair's opening meetings with Netanyahu and Arafat, British officials were keen to stress that London was nothing more than "a venue for the talks".
Meanwhile, Israel's ambassador to the United Nations, Dore Gold, was busy claiming, more than a little disingenuously, that the Oslo Accords mentioned no percentages for redeployment in the West Bank and indicated only further redeployment, a peculiar way to describe an agreement that clearly calls for Israeli redeployment out of all Palestinian-populated towns and villages in the West Bank. Gold also repeatedly spoke of the Likud's security fears. "This issue of percentages is not a debate over a tip in a restaurant," he told reporters. "Every single per cent is 55 square kilometres, the size of all of Tel Aviv. This threatens Israel's defence along the West Bank defence barrier," he added.
Gold also repeated Netanyahu's statement that Israel "had already gone the extra mile" in trying to make peace with the Palestinians. Quite what this extra mile was no one seemed sure, though one leading British Middle East commentator quipped that "Netanyahu's extra mile was the distance that Israel's latest Jewish settlement extended into occupied Arab land."
British press reports on the meeting tended to concentrate on the irony of Netanyahu and Arafat staying less than a mile away in the same city but refusing to meet face to face. The frail and fatigued appearance of Arafat also gave rise to speculation on the Palestinian leader's health.
Perhaps the most exciting scene that took place as the London talks opened on Monday was the side show of three small demonstrations which took place in front of 10 Downing Street when Blair was meeting with Netanyahu and Arafat. Some 40 Israelis sympathetic to the Peace Now group active in Israel chanted slogans in Hebrew and English calling for a two-state solution and raising banners calling for the release of Vanounou, incarcerated in Israeli jails for more than 11 years now after revealing its nuclear capabilities to a British newspaper. Shortly afterwards, four Israelis dressed as rabbis came towards reporters handing them statements by the "Coalition for Israel". The statement announced their opposition to "surrendering additional land to Arafat, not 11 per cent and not one centimetre of retreat from Jewish land." "Not one inch" and "no retreat from promised land" they chanted.
Hot on their heels came 60 heavily veiled women and bearded men, mostly of Pakistani origin, carrying a black flag and shouting "bomb... bomb Israel, gas, gas Israel. What do you want? Jihad. When do you want it? Now." The three groups stood next to each other, separated by policemen. The Jihad supporters burned the Israeli flag while Peace Now watched on with confusion. The four rabbis beat a sudden retreat, no doubt citing security reasons.


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