By Dina Ezzat With a strong diplomatic offensive, Cairo began the New Year trying to minimise the worst effects of the problems inherited from the Old -- the consequences of total stalemate in the peace process, along with the near-total destruction that has rent the Iraqi state asunder. Nevertheless, recent developments in both these areas are sure to cause Cairo a number of serious headaches throughout the year, as they take the Middle East closer to political, and maybe even military, turmoil. The two main threats facing the region are easily identified: Iraq could enter on the final disintegration scenario, and Israel could get more radical. Indeed, these developments have all but destroyed the fragile sense of Arab cooperation that was emerging, and which was generally attributed to efforts made by Cairo since it hosted and chaired the last Arab summit in 1996. "We were hoping that this year the Arab world would be heading into a phase of healthier relations and establishing closer coordination, but now this looks like a very difficult task," commented one senior official. "What we are trying to do now is to make sure that existing differences do not get out of hand." To minimise the scope of the present disarray, Cairo has been exercising enormous self-restraint in responding to the campaign by Iraqi officials, who charged Egypt with green-lighting the US-British air strikes and helping to kill an emergency Arab meeting to debate the matter. Egypt has accepted the mediation of a top-level Arab official to try and contain the dispute. As Foreign Minister Amr Moussa said, Cairo is sticking within the parameters of its existing policy on Iraq [that is, that the military option should be excluded from dealing with UN-Iraq disagreements, and Iraq should implement UN resolutions while being allowed to see the light at the end of the tunnel] and continuing to express sympathy without reservation for the Iraqi people. As concerns the peace process, Cairo has done everything it can to accommodate the ultra-reconciliatory behaviour of the Palestinians which led to the signing of the Wye River Memorandum. "It is true that we were not party to that agreement, which has proved to be a failure, but we are certainly not flagging the Palestinians about it, rather the opposite: we are trying to work as closely as possible with them, and other parties involved in the peace process, to make sure that the damage is not aggravated any further," a diplomatic source told Al-Ahram Weekly. It is to these ends that Cairo diplomats are currently orchestrating a number of inter-Arab meetings. There are at least four meetings scheduled for the month of January alone: Egypt-Syria in Damascus, Egypt-Jordan-Palestine in Amman, an Arab League ministerial meeting and a five-way encounter between the foreign ministers of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Oman and Yemen. These five foreign ministers already met in Hurgada last Saturday to map out a basic plan for containing the flare up in inter-Arab differences, in the run-up to the Arab League ministerial meeting. Many observers believe this meeting is now at serious risk of either cancellation or down-grading, due to the many differences in opinion in the Arab world as to how best to deal with the matter of Iraq. Cairo, official sources say, is well aware of the limitations of such meetings, but is still prepared to pursue them, if only for the sake of maintaining a minimum of inter-Arab coordination. In parallel with these moves, Cairo is also keen to keep its options open of dealing with the different Israeli and Iraqi factions, as the opportunity may arise. Scenarios for replacing the current Iraqi government with one based on a coalition of the different exile opposition groups would appear not to have been ruled out, with Cairo taking an open-minded approach to the leading figures of the Iraqi opposition, though without making commitments of any sort. "Our policy is clear: the future of the Iraqi regime should be decided by the Iraqi people. But we also have to look at what we are being offered," said one source. Likewise in Israel, where the electoral campaign is now under way. Cairo is taking its time to ponder the wisdom of casting in its lot with one or another of the pretenders to Netanyahu's succession. Foreign Minister Moussa has been invited by the Peres Centre for Peace to deliver a speech next Sunday on the future of the peace process. Moussa attended the Centre's inauguration in October 1997, but has not yet replied to their invitation. Nor is it clear whether, should he accept, he would have time to stay on and meet with members of the Israeli government. Obviously, while Egypt continues to observe the political power-play in Israel very closely, it is not keen to be rushed into taking the wrong side or even backing the looser. "It is true that the last two years have been very complicated for the peace process, but there is no guarantee that what we are looking ahead to will not be much worse," commented one source. He added, "And, judging by the reactions to the recent US-British bombing of Iraq, and the Iraqi [response to these reactions], one could argue that so long as Saddam Hussein remains in power, the chances of Arab reconciliation are almost non-existent". Throughout last year Cairo was trying very hard to upgrade the level of Arab coordination, by widening the scope of the Egypt-Syria-Saudi Arabia nucleus of cooperation to include Morocco, the United Arab Emirates and, to some extent, Jordan. Egypt chose to be openly critical of Israel, and it was increasingly vocal in its sympathy with the grievances of Iraq. Now, it seems that these plans will have to be put on hold, at least for long enough to allow a clearer picture of the future of both Iraq and the peace process to emerge.
