A cease-fire deceased

The Israel-Palestinian cease-fire is over. It is a wholly open question what will replace it, writes Graham Usher
One week after it was agreed, the Israeli-Palestinian "cease-fire" lies buried beneath the scorched earth between the Jewish settlement of Alei Sinai and the Palestinian village of Beit Lahia in the northern border area of the Gaza Strip.
In one of the fiercest battles of the year-old Intifada, two Israelis and at least eight Palestinians were killed, over 20 Israelis and Palestinians wounded, a settlement was assailed and Palestinian Authority territory invaded.
How this leaves the US stipulation for "quiet" in the occupied territories so that Arab and Islamic covenant can be got for any attack on Afghanistan is anyone's guess. But one thing is sure. It will require a lot more than persuasion on Washington's part to put this truce together again.
On Tuesday night two Palestinian guerrillas from Hamas' Izzadin Al- Qassam military arm breached the Alei Sinai settlement. Firing off machine guns and grenades they killed two Israeli soldiers almost immediately. They then took up refuge in one of the settlement's outhouses, amid a plethora of Israeli-inspired rumours that "hostages had been taken".
They hadn't. Instead the two gunmen fought an ultimately hopeless gun battle that ended when they fled the outhouse and were shot dead by army marksmen. All told, 15 Israelis were injured in the attack, including soldiers, settlers and children. By 2 am yesterday, the assault on Alei Sinai was over.
And the invasion of Beit Lahia had begun. Even as Alei Sinai was raging, Israeli leader Ariel Sharon convened an emergency meeting of his security cabinet. This held Yasser Arafat responsible for the attack on the settlement because "it was carried out by terrorists operating in [PA] territory". It announced a freeze on all "alleviation" of the blockades presently in place in the West Bank and Gaza.
And it gave the army a "free hand" to do what it thought necessary to protect Israeli citizens, including "initiated actions" -- that is, incursions into PA territories and the assassination of Palestinian leaders, political and military.
The incursions were already on their way, as tanks and bulldozers streamed over the Israeli border and a kilometre deep into Beit Lahia. Four Palestinian policemen were killed when a tank shell ploughed into their position. Two more Palestinians were killed and at least eight wounded as people fled their beds and homes in the village. In all, 10 PA police checkpoints, posts and stations were destroyed or hit in the raid, including the main police headquarters in Gaza City.
Against such a massive show of military might Palestinian fighters and civilians fought back valiantly. But there is little in the PA's armoury that can dent a tank, let alone stop one.
For Yasser Arafat, Izzadin Al- Qassam's raid on the "so-called Alei Sinai settlement" could barely have come at a worse time. The last week has shown a glimmer that the Bush administration may be prepared to engage politically in the Israeli- Palestinian conflict rather than merely as underwriter for Israel's security needs.
On Monday, stories in the New York Times and Washington Post said that -- prior to the attacks on America on 11 September -- the White House had been readying a new Middle East initiative to end a year of uninterrupted violence. And on Tuesday Bush noted -- for the first time -- "the idea of a Palestinian state has always been part of the [US] vision in the Middle East, as long as the right of Israel to exist is respected".
It remains to be seen whether these are merely sops to feed the Arabs ahead of strikes against Afghanistan, or whether they mark a new engagement by the US, if not for a comprehensive deal, then at least with the Mitchell process.
But whatever it means Arafat will be expected to bring to heel the militants of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and large elements in his Fatah movement. On Monday -- and in explicit defiance of his ruling against attacks on civilians inside Israel -- Jihad exploded a car bomb in West Jerusalem. Then came the Hamas assault on Alei Sinai. And in between, there was the refusal by Fatah cadres in Bethlehem to hand over one of their leaders, Ataf Abayat, to the Palestinian police for the killing of a Jewish settler two weeks ago. Fatah told the police he could be "arrested" but not imprisoned. If he were, they would fire on the Jewish settlement of Gilo in East Jerusalem, regardless of the cease-fire and the massive Israeli reprisals it would incur.
Arafat's only staff is that as long as the "international coalition" has a role the US may serve as his protector, whether against the wrath of the Israelis or the fractiousness of his own people. The greater fear among Palestinians is that both are likely to combust once the coalition building ends, the strikes on the Taliban begin and Sharon "initiates" actions rather than responds to them.
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