Striking a balance

Cairo believes that maintaining a moderate position towards an intransigent Israel is the best strategy for now. Nevine Khalil and Soha Abdelaty look at the reasons why
The communiqué that came out of the eight-hour meeting of Arab foreign ministers last Thursday left many wondering whether it was a renewed call on Arab states to sever ties with Israel. A very carefully worded clause stated "As long as Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon does not consider Palestinian President Yasser Arafat a party to the peace process, then Arab countries do not see in Sharon's government a credible party in the peace process." All eyes turned to Egypt and Jordan. The way the two countries interpret this decision will be crucial, since Cairo and Amman are the only Arab capitals which have signed peace agreements with Tel Aviv, in 1979 and 1994 respectively.
Egyptian officials claimed that the clause did not require Arab governments to stop negotiating with Sharon. "It did not say the severing of ties, it said that a Sharon who refuses to acknowledge Arafat cannot himself be acknowledged as a party in the peace process," Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed told Al-Ahram Weekly on Monday.
The issue of severing ties with Israel was first raised last May at a meeting of only those Arab foreign ministers who form part of the Follow-up Committee. At the time, the ministers called for "the suspension of all Arab political contacts with the Israeli government as long as the aggression against, and the blockade on, the Palestinian people and their national authority continue." Cairo stated at the time that the communiqué only referred to "high-level" political contacts with the Israeli government, but even this boycott was breached when visited Israel earlier this month.
Even a cursory glance at the current diplomatic map in the region and the condition of Israel's relations with Arab countries indicates that ties are at freezing point with all its neighbours. Neither Egypt nor Jordan are represented at a high level in Tel Aviv, after Cairo recalled its ambassador Mohamed in November 2000 and Jordan withheld the dispatch of a newly appointed ambassador to Israel when the Intifada broke out 14 months ago.
told the Weekly that severing or cooling ties with Israel is not an end in itself but a means to "achieve our goal of ending Israeli occupation of Arab land." The ideal plan of action, according to the former ambassador, is "to isolate Sharon and his policies by first convincing the Israeli public that the Arabs are reliable partners who want peace; and second that Arabs are ready to reach a peace agreement with them according to international law."
also said that bilateral relations between Egypt and Israel depend heavily on progress in the peace process. "It is like a thermometer," he said. "When there is progress on all peace tracks, the temperature rises and relations warm up. When the peace process freezes or falters, relations cool and the temperature drops." He explained that this does not necessarily take place at the level of the government alone. It is dependent on the reaction in Egyptian society as a whole.
recalled that when the late Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin was in power, "there was credibility and a real will on the part of the Israelis to make peace. Bilateral relations advanced and successful cooperation between the two sides took place." This cooperation came in the shape of numerous private sector deals and some 22 bilateral agreements.
, in fact, is no longer waiting to return to Tel Aviv because he was appointed to the Shura Council in June, and therefore Egypt does not technically have an ambassador for Israel. Neither is it currently considering a replacement for , it seems. denied rumours that Egypt had this week appointed an ambassador to Tel Aviv, telling reporters on Monday that the rumour was "untrue and baseless." Israeli officials have approached Cairo several times and in several ways to reverse its decision, but President Hosni Mubarak has insisted that the ambassador will not return until Israel changes its policies.
Nonetheless, points out that despite the fact that the Egyptian ambassador was recalled, "diplomatic and other channels are still open." Currently, the chargé d'affaires Ihab Sherif oversees daily business at the embassy. The Egyptian position is that keeping channels of communication open with the Israeli government will serve Arab interests best. Abdel-Moneim , director of Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, explained that if Egypt and Jordan decide to sever ties with Israel, they will be "ending the peace process and threatening their peace agreements with Israel," told the Weekly. They will also rock the boat in terms of relations with Washington, he added.
Therefore, believes that Egypt will not reduce relations further since they are already at quite a "low" level, but instead will pursue peace-making more adamantly. He added that in his opinion, those who call for severing ties with Israel will soon be eating their words because tensions appear to be declining between the Palestinians and Israelis. "I believe that in the next few days, there will be something on the table and it will not work out without talking to the Israelis," argued .
Meanwhile, "the status quo will continue until Israel is ready to make progress on the peace process, stop its aggression and return to the negotiating table," said . He stressed that "Egypt is the first country to sign a peace treaty with Israel and it will be the last country to fully normalise relations with Israel. Our national duty towards the Arab countries is to ensure that peace is achieved in this region." As the "pioneer and cornerstone of peace in the region," said , Egypt shoulders much responsibility and contemplates its moves seriously. "If Egypt says no to Israel, the rest of the Arab world will follow suit, and if Egypt says yes the same is true," he added.
The question that remains unanswered is exactly how fruitful Egypt's continued cool to lukewarm approach with Israel will be, especially in the light of claims that 's visit to Israel was unsuccessful in reducing tensions between Palestinians and Israelis. believes that it is too early to pass judgement on Egypt's tactics. "Diplomacy does not work this way; every piece, every visit, has to produce a result," said . "We forget sometimes that it took almost six years between the beginning of negotiations after the 1973 war until Egypt signed a peace treaty with Israel."
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