In Focus: Israel's coming war War is in Israel's nature; indeed, it is its essence, writes Galal Nassar For quite a while it seemed that the Israelis were preparing to go to war. Not only did they engage in highly publicised military manoeuvres, but they also issued political threats at the highest level. As brinkmanship prevailed, Israeli so-called doves vied with hawks in issuing hardline statements. Left-wing Defence Minister Ehud Barak seemed just as belligerent as right-wing Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, with Binyamin Netanyahu seeming like a moderate in comparison. Israel's belligerence commanded regional and international attention as Israeli media continued to feed the frenzy. Analysts spared no time speculating about war, and some envisioned alternative scenarios for the conflict. Commentators offered their opinion on the time and venue of battle. Some said it was going to be in weeks or months. Others, citing remarks by Chief of Staff General Gabi Ashkenazi during recent manoeuvres in the Negev, said perhaps two years. In the midst of this maddening bravado, one has to keep in mind that Israel lives by the sword. Israel is an entity that is born out of war and survives on war. It should come as no surprise that Israel would want war. Such is the destiny of our region. As long as this fabricated product of imperialism remains a curse in its midst, war is a haunting possibility. Still, let's contemplate a number of relevant facts: First, Israel is not going to wage a war unless it has a chance of winning quickly and with minimum losses. This is because Israel, being a vulnerable, fabricated and alien entity in the region, is haunted by an abiding feeling of insecurity. Because of its demographic vulnerability, Israel fears that it may cease to exist. Israel was implanted by iron and fire in the bosom of a region that doesn't accept it. This is why it is afraid to lose even one war. You can tell from the torrent of studies that the Israelis prepare on that subject, as well as the endless conferences held on war, such as the one that took place in Herzliya. Since its creation, Israel has been talking endlessly about war. After every war, the Israelis form committees to look into all aspects of failure. Such committees were held after the 1973 War and the 2006 war in Lebanon. Secondly, Israel doesn't go to war before getting permission from the country that sponsors it and forever protects its expansionist drive and violations of international law. And American consent often means European consent. This has always been the case. In the light of the above points, which no Israeli would contest, one has to assess the seriousness of Israel's highly publicised threats. The Israelis are always eager to learn from the outcome of their wars against the Arabs, and have learned a thing or two from their previous two wars on Lebanon and Gaza. Therefore, they surely know that their superior war machine gives no guarantee of victory. Also they know that once a war starts, it may not end as quickly as they wish. They know, too, that they cannot keep war away from their areas and that they cannot keep their casualties to a minimum. These are the lessons that the Israelis have learned the hard way through battles with groups that pay no attention to the balance of power, and whose inferior resources are more than compensated for by their superior determination. The Lebanese and Palestinian resistance groups have performed so well in recent wars that many researchers in occupied Palestine are now looking into the strengths of resistance groups and "resistance countries", the latter being reference for Syria and Iran. The Lebanon and Gaza wars have reinforced the culture of Arab resistance in general and may entice other countries in the region to rethink their positions. What I am saying here is that Israel will have to think long and hard before waging another war. Reacting to Lieberman's recent threats, Syrian officials said that any future war would not spare Israeli dwelling places and cities. Their reaction, firm and fast as it was, is perhaps why the Israelis toned down their statements of late. In fact, Netanyahu has tried to rein in Lieberman's bullishness and arrogance, and Barak has somewhat backpedalled. How about Israel's guardian and protector, the US? Few would dispute the fact that debt-ridden and war- exhausted America is in no mood for a third war in the region, not with Iraq and Afghanistan still flaring up. The US fears defeat in Afghanistan as it continues with its endless war on an invisible enemy named terrorism. The cost of these wars, coinciding with a grinding economic crisis, is taking its toll on the US. Recently, US Vice-President Joe Biden said that the US deficit was a threat to national security. Biden was appalled at the $1.6 billion trade deficit and the $3.8 billion budget deficit, and the $12.4 public deficit. Also recently, China reacted to Washington's intention to supply Taiwan with state-of-the-art weaponry with harsh words. The Chinese were also outspoken in their protests regarding Obama's meeting with the Dalai Lama on 16 February. There is a reason for that. China holds huge amounts of US government bonds, and if it starts selling these bonds in the international market, the Americans could be in trouble. China's international clout is increasing, and the Americans know they cannot run the show alone for long. Some people believe that Israel's warmongering is a product of US concern over Iran's nuclear programme. The US, we know, wants to create a missile shield in four Gulf States: Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Oman. But had the US thought it beneficial to attack Iran at a time when it has two wars going on in the vicinity it would have done so already. Iran can influence the situation in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran also controls the flow of oil in the Straits of Hormuz. Also, Israel will certainly be hit by Iranian missiles if Iran is attacked, for Iran doesn't make a distinction between the US and Israel. Besides, Arab resistance groups are likely to react to any attack on Iran. Therefore, the Americans cannot allow Israel to start a war that may get out of hand. The Americans know from their experience in Iraq and Afghanistan that wars are easier to start than to end. A few months ago, US ships landed at the coast of occupied Palestine to unload troops and sophisticated weapons destined for military drills in the Negev. At the time, analysts talked about war for a while, then forgot all about it. Israel's threats of war are a customary phenomenon in Israel. It is a by-product of the partisan rivalry between Israel's hawks and doves, although it is hard sometimes to tell the difference between the two. As for the deployment of Patriot missiles in the Gulf, this is just America's way of making a quick buck to alleviate its financial woes. War is not a walk in the park, neither for America nor Israel. But one mustn't forget that Israel is a military establishment created in war and modelled on perpetual war. Israel has been born and raised in the lap of imperialism, and this imperialism still sponsors it to this day. In other words, Israel cannot live, thrive, or survive without the very act that brought it to life: war.
