Arafat's political welfare does not appear to be figuring very high on the Arab agenda. Dina Ezzat reports Palestinian officials are complaining about the support that Arab governments have offered to Yasser Arafat in the wake of a US campaign to remove or, at best, marginalise the Palestinian leader by "kicking him upstairs" to the role of an honourary president. But the timbre of officials' complaints may, in part, relate to changing assessments of their own political futures in the event that Arafat is out of the picture. In spite of such a situation, it is difficult to find a Palestinian official who does not have negative comments about the position taken by Arab states with respect to Arafat's political future. Some Palestinian officials have taken the Arab failure to provide strong support to Arafat as a sign of Arab disinterest in the Palestinian issue altogether. "This is not about Arafat. It is about the kind of support that Arab states are prepared to offer to the Palestinian cause -- support that has been decreasing," commented one Cairo- based Palestinian diplomat. According to the diplomat, Arab "regimes" are not all that interested in defending Palestinian rights. "There is considerable popular support but it seems that the trend now is to obtain a settlement, any settlement, signed, so as to get rid of the headache. This is reflected in the level of support offered to Arafat." Palestinian officials point to US influence as being a reason for the decline of Arab regimes' backing for the Palestinian leader. "We are not expecting anyone to ruin or even negatively effect their relations with the US, but we were hoping that Arab states with strong ties to Washington would use those relations to support Arafat, who has been struggling with his people in the face of an Israeli war," said one high-ranking Palestinian official who spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly on condition of anonymity. Arab diplomats and observers admit that their governments do not provide Arafat with serious support, and some even argue that the Arab public is not really behind the Palestinian leader either. "I think everyone is simply tired of Arafat. Most Arab leaders have little faith in him. The hard-liners see him as an American puppet; the moderates see him as someone who cannot decisively abandon the militant option. So they are not sure they want to keep backing him," commented one Arab diplomat. He added, "And, in any event both sides do not trust him. For example, the Syrians would not agree with him on anything for fear that he would sell them out as soon as the Americans entice him to do so. Meanwhile, the Egyptians are tired of Arafat going to the Americans to claim that he is not making the political concessions required by Washington because Cairo is not offering enough political support." But it is not just about Syria and Egypt. Arafat's problem with Arab leaders is much more complicated. The Lebanese leadership is concerned that he might use his influence over the country's large refugee population to re-ignite civil conflict -- something they believe he did in the past. Meanwhile, Jordan is far too busy boosting its economic and political partnerships to worry about Arafat's political future. "What the Jordanians want is stability in the Palestinian territories. They do not necessarily care if it is Arafat or someone else who secures that stability, which is so fundamental to Jordan's own domestic stability." For their part, the Gulf countries are unlikely to forgive Arafat for his support of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein during the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990. The Iraqi leader has enough problems of his own, what with American plans to overthrow him, let alone offer support to Arafat. For the Palestinian leader to obtain support from Arab countries in North Africa and the Horn of Africa is insufficient. Indeed, when in late June US President George W Bush made his remarks implying that Arafat should be replaced, there was no immediate outcry by Arab states. A few days later, the Arab League, Egypt and Saudi Arabia spoke about the right of the Palestinian people to choose their own leader. Reports carried in leading US newspapers alleging that the White House had received an Arab consensus on sidelining Arafat were denied by every Arab capital mentioned in the articles. However, speaking on condition of anonymity, a senior Arab official told Al-Ahram Weekly, "Nobody is willing to burn their fingers for Arafat anymore. He has no credibility in any leading Arab capital. He burnt his bridges by playing both sides against the middle, too many times." It was during the Arab summit in Beirut in March that it became clear that Arafat was falling out of Arab leaders' favour. Few Arab states, including the Lebanese host, were eager for Arafat to participate. And few Arab states, most notably the host of that meeting, were keen to have a speech by Arafat, isolated in his Ramallah headquarters, broadcast to the summit hall via satellite. Today, the situation does not look any better. Practically under siege for almost nine months, Arafat rarely receives high-ranking Arab officials. "They [Arab leaders] know he cannot leave because Sharon might not let him back -- in fact, they advise him not to leave the Palestinian territories because he might be unable to return -- but they still cannot be bothered to call on him on regular basis," said one Palestinian official. According to this informed official, "Even when some voices argue that it might be best for Arafat to exit stage temporarily, Arab capitals are not exactly enthusiastic about receiving him." For now, influential Arab leaders have managed to convince Washington that it is in the interest of regional stability and political negotiations to continue to have Arafat as president provided that he nominates other Palestinian officials that the US and Israel view to be credible negotiators. But nobody is offering predictions about what will happen next. While Palestinian presidential elections are scheduled to take place in a few months' time, nobody is sure whether Arafat will find the courage, or support, to run. The big question mark, however, is how Arab leaders will react if an alternative candidate for the Palestinian leadership comes to the fore.
