Dina Ezzat tries to find out whether or not Egypt would throw its weight behind Arafat to rescue him from political oblivion Egyptian officials are well aware of the disturbing consequences of the recent wave of chaos in Gaza, with which Egypt shares a border. They say that they are not oblivious to the fact that an on-going state of unrest in Gaza could bring about unrest in Egypt; something that Egypt has always been keen to avoid. At the same time, officials said the situation was not surprising, a natural result of Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat's mismanagement of the situation in Gaza. Unless Arafat shows genuine determination to stop playing games and embark on reforming his authority, it might be very difficult for Cairo to help reduce the tension in the Gaza Strip for long. "We have always said, and we still say, that Arafat is the legitimately and freely elected leader of the Palestinian people," one Egyptian official said, "and that he could very well be a good part of an answer to the Arab-Israeli conflict." However, the official also said, "Arafat has been very successful in making himself part of the problem rather than part of the answer to the agonies being felt by Palestinians under Israeli occupation." According to this and other Egyptian and Arab officials, Arafat has become too obsessed with playing a power game within the Palestinian Authority, overlooking the obvious fact that his games could at one point backfire. "This is what we have been seeing in Gaza this week," an Egyptian source said. "A fight between two groups within the Palestinian Authority -- one supported by the Fatah movement -- that Arafat used to play against each other. Now Arafat is not in control." Some Palestinian officials are also willing to admit that the current situation in Gaza is the result of Arafat's policies. They say that Arafat ceaselessly attempts to please particular groups of aides that he perceives as supportive and loyal to him, because he is convinced that he is the subject of treachery from within Palestinian Authority ranks. According to one Cairo-based Palestinian diplomat, "the result has been the inter- Palestinian [fighting] that we have been seeing. It is very sad, and we know that it has been very harmful to the Palestinian image around the world, and has also helped [Israeli Prime Minister Ariel] Sharon say that he has no partner for peace in the Palestinian Authority." This source, however, argued that the situation "is not as bad as some may like to think". He and other Palestinian officials also blamed the situation on the suspension of recent Egyptian efforts to mediate an inter- Palestinian dialogue. When Egypt stopped putting pressure on the factions opposed to Arafat (especially that of Mohamed Dahlan, the former chief of Palestinian pre-emptive security), to avoid a confrontation with the Palestinian leader, the situation spiralled out of control. Some have gone as far as suggesting that Egypt was deliberately manipulating Arafat's adversaries to force the Palestinian president to implement Egypt's list of reforms for his many security teams. "The Egyptians have been putting pressure on Arafat," said one Palestinian source. "First, they told him that if he does not start to implement the security reforms, they would not offer him any political support. Then they threatened to suspend their effort to help coordinate the unilateral Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and actually delayed the scheduled arrival of Egyptian security officials to the Gaza Strip. Now they are playing Dahlan against Arafat." The source said the fact that Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit did not even express support for Arafat while commenting on the developments in Gaza was a clear warning message to the Palestinian leader. Egyptian diplomats, however, countered that this was not an accurate description of the situation. "The fact of the matter is that President Arafat has not been clear about what he wants to do about reforming Palestinian Authority structures (not just the security apparatus). It is not true though that Egypt has been trying to twist his arm," one Egyptian diplomat said. According to this diplomat, while the Palestinian leader has every right to take decisions in accordance with what he feels are Palestinian interests, Cairo also has that same right. It was a waste of Cairo's time and effort, he said, to keep sending envoys and trying to convince the Palestinian leader to commit to reforms when it was becoming clear that he was reluctant to do so. "Even Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei," the diplomat said, "has stressed the need for reform. As for Dahlan, we all know that he is quite influential, and that relations between him and Arafat have almost hit an impasse. And we cannot control Dahlan for very long because he too has an agenda of his own". On Tuesday, senior Palestinian security figure Jebril Rajoub arrived in Cairo for talks with top Egyptian officials. Rajoub's visit, some Palestinian sources said, was coordinated with Arafat to try and re-engage Egypt into the Palestinian scene to secure an end to the current sate of unrest. Other Palestinian sources, however, suggested that Rajoub was in Cairo to discuss "several potential scenarios for the future", including a post- Arafat plan. This last, however, was not something that Egyptian officials were willing to discuss. "Arafat is the Palestinian president and we deal with him as such -- but we keep asking him to realise that the regional and the international scenes do not allow for his games to go on for much longer," a senior Egyptian diplomat said. Egyptian officials also said that the decision on whether or not Cairo would be re-energising its diplomatic efforts on the Palestinian scene would greatly depend on Arafat's commitment to ending the power play within the authority, as well as trimming its growing administrative and financial corruption. Meanwhile, the current developments in the Gaza Strip were the subject of discussions on Tuesday in Cairo between Abul-Gheit and European Union High Commissioner for Foreign and Security Policies Javier Solana. In a joint press conference following the talks, neither Abul-Gheit nor Solana seemed willing to commit to any particular steps that Cairo and Brussels would undertake to help contain the situation in Gaza. Neither made reference to Arafat. "The situation has to cool down, and chaos has to come to an end," said Abul-Gheit. "We will see how things develop." Speaking to reporters on Monday, Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa's cabinet chief Hesham Youssef said it was the Palestinians' duty to end the current chaos, which was only playing into the hands of Israel's public relations agenda. The league also joined Egypt in urging the Palestinians to avoid falling into civil strife.
