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With or without Arafat
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 04 - 11 - 2004

Egypt might endorse the mortal Arafat, but will always support the undying Palestinian cause, reports Dina Ezzat
Senior Egyptian officials are planning a brief visit to Paris early next week to offer support to Palestinian President Yasser Arafat. They will also talk to accompanying Palestinian political figures, including the highly influential Mohamed Dahlan, about Palestinian-Israeli relations in a future that may witness a lower profile and declining role for Arafat.
This visit should come right before an over-due trip by Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit and Intelligence Chief Omar Suliman to Israel for talks with top officials about the prospects of the Israeli disengagement plan from Gaza.
Egyptian officials say that while they are aware that it is unlikely Arafat will be able to play any significant political role in the coming weeks -- some say coming months -- Egypt is determined to go ahead with its efforts to ensure Palestinian and Egyptian interests are protected during the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
"This visit has been in the works for some time now and has been delayed several times but it is set to happen because we cannot ignore the current developments on the ground," commented one Egyptian official. He added that Egypt is acting on the premise that the roadmap has to be enacted and that the Israeli disengagement will need to be implemented within this framework. Thus "the plan will go on as originally scheduled almost irrespective of Arafat's health conditions."
According to several Egyptian officials who spoke to Al- Ahram Weekly, Cairo is well aware of the fact that Arafat has to have a say "somehow" in any plans or commitments to be taken by the Palestinian side. However, they add that at the end of the day it is going to be the opinion of the overwhelming majority of Palestinian leaders that will prevail.
Egypt seems keen to conduct this visit to clarify a number of issues with Israel. "The situation is very indeterminate, not just on the Palestinian side, but also on the Israeli side given the problems that the Israeli prime minister is facing with his government."
Most importantly, Cairo will try to secure concrete guarantees from Israel that it will not attempt to set the Palestinian territories aflame during the current political crisis even if Arafat passes away.
Moreover, Egypt does not want to see Israel launching aggressive attacks against the Palestinian people, especially the Hamas leaders. Egypt seems set to back the potential succession of Mahmoud Abbas who is the number two man of the "ruling" Fattah movement. Cairo also wants to make sure that previously discussed security arrangements regarding the Egyptian borders will still be pursued, especially in relation to an Egyptian interest in rearranging the security makeup of the Sinai demilitarised zone.
Also on the Egyptian agenda is to urge continued Israeli communication with the Palestinians as the disengagement plan is being implemented.
"The Israelis and the Americans are working on a plan for the future with or without Arafat. As far as we are concerned we have always offered our utmost support to the Palestinian president and we have always insisted that he is the legitimate elected leader of the Palestinian people who is capable to deliver a peace deal with the Israelis once he is made a decent and coherent offer," said one Egyptian source.
Unlike Palestinian sources who are willing to look optimistically at Arafat's future, Egyptian officials are rather more cautious in their assessment of his health.
Egypt wants to ready itself for all scenarios. The most pertinent question is how to secure post-disengagement deals. "As far as we are concerned Arafat is the uncontested Palestinian leader who could sign a deal with the Israelis."
Egypt is determined to offer support to the next Palestinian leader to make sure that the situation in the occupied territories does not fall apart.


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