Speculation is rife that the Muslim Brotherhood is ripe for a changing of the guard. Omayma Abdel-Latif speaks to some of the outlawed group's senior members Click to view caption Muslim Brotherhood sources dismissed press reports of "simmering discontent and signs of division" within the outlawed group's ranks as "trivial". The speculation regarding a power struggle within the Brotherhood arose mainly as a result of the hospitalisation of Mustafa Mashhour, the group's supreme guide. Mashhour is thought to be in extremely critical condition, inspiring talk of a new supreme guide coming to the fore. Senior members speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly on Monday, however, insist that the idea of naming a new guide is still premature. "We are still hopeful that Mashhour will recover," Abdel- Moneim Abul-Futouh, a member of the General Guidance Bureau (Maktab Al-Irshad) and the group's Shura Council, told the Weekly. In any case, said Abul-Futouh, "there is no dissent over such matters because they are decided by ballot boxes. We will accept and work with whatever this democratic process brings us." The 81-year-old Mashhour, also known as the Iron Sheikh, joined the ranks of the Brotherhood in 1938, moving up its hierarchy until -- with the death of Sheikh Hamed Abul-Nasr in 1996 -- he was named the Supreme Guide. During Mashhour's reign the Brotherhood has attempted to project an image that conforms with the political situation at hand. Although it has bowed to governmental pressure and struggled not to show any antagonistic tendencies towards the state, Mashhour himself has also repeatedly stressed that it was unlikely that the group would make ideological concessions. In 2000, Mashhour supervised the group's campaign for parliamentary elections, a campaign which resulted in the Brotherhood picking up 17 seats, thus making it the largest opposition bloc in the People's Assembly. That coup was mainly engineered by the brotherhood's younger cadres. Mashhour's reign has also seen the Brotherhood become the target of systematic clamp downs -- which have intensified since 2000. The most recent security hits have either landed some of the group's most senior members in prison, or else in line for military trials. The group maintains a very complicated relationship with the government, with some observers concluding that the state's toleration for the group has been in a constant state of flux. Others, however, believe that it has actually been the political movement hit hardest by security's heavy hand. State officials have repeatedly stressed that the group will remain "banned". In a recent interview, Osama El-Baz, the president's chief political advisor, dismissed the idea that the Muslim Brotherhood could pose a threat to the stability of the government since "it doesn't enjoy mass support". El-Baz said "the group will remain banned because Egypt's political system does not permit political parties with a religion-based platform. This is not because we fear a threat posed by the brotherhood. I believe that the Egyptian government is [properly] secured, and the Brotherhood is not strong enough to threaten the political and social stability of the country." Statements such as these, combined with Mashhour's illness, have brought questions about the group's future to the fore. Observers say that the Brotherhood -- established in 1928 by Hassan El-Banna -- is unlikely to bow to either internal or external pressures calling for a replacement of old guard leadership positions by the group's younger generation. Instead, a routine change of guard is the most likely scenario. According to Abul-Futouh, both the General Guidance Bureau -- the body responsible for formulating policies and running the group's activities -- and the 100-member Shura Council will elect a new guide within 30 days of the absence of the supreme guide. Abul-Futouh stressed that any member is an eligible candidate for leadership, so long as they have been part of the group for at least 20 years. He declined to either reveal names of possible candidates who could be running for the post, or elaborate on the most likely candidate to take over. Observers say that surprises are unlikely. Ma'moun El-Hodeibi, the deputy supreme guide currently in charge of the group's affairs, is most likely to be the coming supreme guide. Abul- Futouh confirmed speculations, however, that Sheikh Youssef Al-Qaradawi, a prominent Muslim scholar living in Qatar, was approached by group members to take over the leadership. Abul- Futouh would not reveal the date this offer was made, and in any case, Al-Qaradawi declined. Brotherhood sources said that Ahmed Hassanein would be promoted to the post of deputy supreme guide while Mahdi Akef would be second deputy -- both men belong to the old guard. Abul-Futouh said that unlike most political parties where leadership positions are a source of constant strife, the political circumstances under which the Brotherhood is operating makes the post of leadership "a heavy burden". Observers of political Islamist movements say that it is precisely for this reason that Brotherhood elders should allow more space for the group's younger cadres. Rifaat Sid Ahmed, an expert on Islamic movements, said that the most difficult obstacle facing the Brotherhood was not so much the political system but rather that the time was ripe for them to embark on what he termed as "a process of internal renewal", in an attempt to keep up with the progress made by other Islamist movements in the region. "The Islamist movements in Bahrain, Morocco and even secular Turkey have made leaps and strides and claimed positions of power in these countries because they have reached a level of political maturity [which has allowed them] to acquire a vision of how to deal with political realities," Sid Ahmed told the Weekly. The group's 70s generation has reached just such a level of maturity, said Sid Ahmed. He believes that this group of young activists -- on campuses, in professional syndicates and in parliamentary elections -- is the most capable of facing up to the future challenges posed both by the state and international circumstances. "There has to be a realisation within the Brotherhood that if they don't pass the 'changing of the guard' test successfully, it is likely to have a long-term impact on the group itself."
