Niger's coup is wildly popular, but is it a harbinger of democracy and prosperity, asks Gamal Nkrumah Rarely do chickens come home to roost with such Pandemonium. Military intervention in the politics of one of the world's most impoverished nations may not produce a happier society. However, it offers the people a chance to taste change. Military men offering supposedly new ideas for poverty-stricken millions are often pandering to longstanding popular discontent and frustration. The barren nation of Niger is sandwiched between the Sahara and the Sahel -- a huge swathe of savanna grassland territory peppered with drought-resistant trees and shrubs stretching from the Atlantic Ocean in the west to the Red Sea in the east. It has little agricultural potential as rains have been highly erratic in recent years and desertification is fast reducing what little farmland there is to utter devastation. It is against this bleak backdrop that the latest coup took place in Niger last week. Niger's three television channels hastily announced the news of the coup. Colonel Goukoye Abdel-Karim read out a statement by the new ruling junta announcing the formation of the ruling Supreme Council for the Restoration of Democracy, known by its French acronym CSRD. At first the people of the country were at a loss as to what to make of the coup. Then, over the weekend they began pouring out into the streets of the capital Niger in jubilation. Opposition parties commended the courage of the coup leaders, urging them to stick to their promise to return the country to democracy as soon as possible. The junta that now rules the country has pledged to organise free and fair elections. The question is will they abide by their promise? Once the quarrel over multi-party democracy dies down, the next big collision in the Sahelian country's geopolitics is likely to be control of its rich uranium deposits. French, Canadian and Chinese companies exploit the country's Saharan uranium mines. Niger produces 10 per cent of the world's uranium and is the largest exporter of the strategic mineral. The country's uranium has been used, much to the chagrin of the United States, in the nuclear industries of nations deemed pariah states by Washington such as Iran and North Korea. The uranium of Niger was also in the past exported to Libya and Iraq under Saddam Hussein. It created a media hype which allowed a forged document accusing Iraq of importing Niger uranium to justify the US invasion of Iraq in search of nonexistent weapons of mass destruction -- Niger's claim to fame. The reality is that a host of Western nations are keen purchasers of Niger's uranium. The dashing Major Adamou Harouna apparently led this week's coup. However, it is still unclear who exactly is in charge of the ruling junta. What is clear is that in spite of their relatively youthfulness, most were involved in earlier coups. Even though the ethnic Hausa people constitute 60 per cent of Niger's population, the army has long been controlled by the minority Zarma (Djerma) or Songhai people who live in the vicinity of the capital Niamey and make up some 20 per cent of the population. There are a number of nomadic Arab tribes that inhabit the vast Sahara. And, the Arabic language is used by many of the inhabitants of Niger as a lingua franca along with Hausa. Even though Niger might be homogenous in terms of religion, it is hopelessly heterogeneous when it comes to ethnic and linguistic groupings. The ethnic Adarawa, closely related to the Hausa, the Fulani, the Kanouri and the Tuareg are among the other minority ethnic groups of the country of 16 million people straddling the Saharan and Sahelian belts of Africa. The proliferation of Arabic language schools funded primarily by oil-rich Gulf countries and Libya, Niger's immediate neighbour to the north, during the 1980s and 1990s led to the creation of militant Islamist groups in the country. Muslims account for more than 95 per cent of the population. Until recently, Sufi orders predominated, but increasingly militant Islamists suspected of having close ties with Al-Qaeda have proliferated throughout the country. This, coupled with the country's rich uranium deposits, has heightened US interest in the country, and a flurry of diplomatic activity to prop up the nascent democratic experiment in Niger has intensified lately. For instance, US Democratic Congressman Alan Grayson of Florida was in Niger at the time of the coup. Niger has received several senior Western officials in recent months. "This is a difficult situation," US Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs Philip Crowley summed up. The ruling junta suspended the constitution and in turn the European Union put a freeze on its development aid to Niger. The US also threatened to cut off development assistance. However, Niger's ostracism was not restricted to Western nations. The regional economic grouping the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) also suspended the membership of Niger as did the African Union, though the regional grouping still dispatched a high-powered delegation to Niamey headed by ECOWAS Secretary-General Mohamed Bin Chambas on a fact-finding mission. The ousted President Mamadou Tanja has been in power since 1999 and he intended to alter the constitution in order to remain in power for a third term in office. Niger has promulgated five constitutions in the past and has laboured under oppressive periods of military rule since independence from France in 1960. Tanja unsuccessfully ran as the presidential candidate for the National Movement of the Development of Society (MNSD) twice in 1993 and 1996 and lost, but he persevered and was elected in 1999 in an election many believed to be fradulent. Tanja rose through the ranks to become Chairman of ECOWAS (2005- 2007). He was probably tempted to hang on to power when it became clear that the country was poised to become a leading African oil exporter. Tanja, of Fulani and Kanouri heritage, was the first non-Zarma leader to head the country other than Ibrahim Bare Mainassara, an ethnic Hausa, who was assassinated in a bloody military coup in April 1999. Ethnic politics led to three coups between 1974 and 1999. Seyni Kountche, the first military ruler, like most of the higher echelons of the army is an ethnic Zarma. Kountche deposed Niger's first democratically-elected civilian president Hamani Diori who died in exile in Morocco. New junta leader Salou Djibo, too, is Zarma as are his two key colleagues, Adamou Harouna and Djibril Hamidou, better known as Colonel Pele, who heads Niger's football association. Ethnic politics do not appear to be an immediate cause of the coup. Factional infighting within the ruling Zarma military clique coupled with Tanja's own intransigence prompted the military takeover. It is unclear whether the muzzling of Zarma political supremacy dented the popularity of the ousted president. He did, however, ruffle Zarma feathers. Tanja was scheduled to step down in December 2009 following two five-year terms in office, but instead in a highly controversial move dissolved the constitutional court and the National Assembly because they openly opposed his plans and assumed power to rule by presidential decree, brushing aside regional and international criticism. The opposition Coordination of Democratic Forces for the Republic (CFDR) in desperation boycotted the legislative elections of 20 October 2009 organised by the Tanja regime. Ironically, the CFDR hailed the coup as a step in the right direction but urged the military rulers to honour their pledge to return to democracy. Tanja didn't want to step down, but he was forced to. Tensions ran high under Tanja and is running even higher now under the CSRD. Chief among the people's worries is their security and an end to food shortages. Niger is prone to periodic droughts and famines and the people need political stability and peace in order to embark on sustainable development projects that ultimately lead to prosperity. And, that has yet to happen.
