With United Nations weapons inspectors resuming their mission in Iraq, Saddam Hussein's hour of truth seems near, writes Salah Hemeid This week, UN arms experts entrusted with the daunting task of uncovering and dismantling Iraq's weapons of mass destruction dusted off their Baghdad offices after four year's absence and were ready to resume their hunt for the lethal arsenal. Seventeen inspectors, the first contingent of a 300-strong group, arrived to restart inspections on Wednesday, when they are expected to revisit sites inspected in the 1990s. Half a dozen staff members, along with communications gear and computers, were flown in from a UN base in Cyprus to set up a logistics system for the operation that will determine if Iraq is in possession of these weapons or not. The inspectors, part of the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), are back in Iraq under the provisions of Security Council resolution 1441 passed on 7 November, and have demanded the Iraqis give up any weapons of mass destruction or face "serious consequences". The resolution also requires the Baghdad government to make a declaration by 8 December regarding any weapons of mass destruction, facilities to manufacture them, and "all other chemical, biological, and nuclear programmes", even those not related to military use. Even before the mission was relaunched, Iraq hit out. Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri complained that the Security Council resolution on weapons inspections provides a pretext for the United States to wage war against his country. "There is premeditation to target Iraq, whatever the pretext," he told Secretary-General Kofi Annan in an angry letter broadcast by the Iraqi official media. Citing a long list of grievances, the Iraqi foreign minister explained that key paragraphs in the resolution are "unjust and unprecedented". He sharply criticised paragraph 4 of the resolution, which says "false statements or omissions" in Iraq's declaration of its weapons or weapons programmes -- including chemical, biological and nuclear programmes which it claims are peaceful -- could contribute to a finding that it had committed a "material breach" of the resolution; a finding that might lead to military action. In his 25-page letter, Sabri also complained that the resolution gives the inspectors "unjust powers", such as the right to conduct interviews with citizens inside the country without the presence of a government official, to ask them to leave their country with their families for interviews, to demand lists of the names of all scientists and researchers, or to remove equipment without notifying the Iraqi government. Sabri urged members of the UN Security Council to ensure that the weapons inspectors are committed "to their obligations according to the UN charter and ... the United Nations' goals". If they remain committed, he wrote, they will "uncover the false US accusations". Sabri said the United States and Britain had failed to back up their allegations that Iraq retained some chemical or biological weapons and is believed to have reinstated its weapons programmes. But UN officials suggested that such statements, issued on the eve of the resumption of the weapons inspections, might not be a hopeful sign. Annan immediately responded, saying that inspections are Iraq's only option to avoid war. Mohamed Al-Baradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), assured Iraq that weapons inspectors will carry out their job in "a neutral and realistic way". But in a press conference in Cairo he dismissed Iraq's claim that resolution 1441 was a pretext for war, saying that Iraq's compliance with the terms of the resolution, and cooperation with the inspectors, will make war avoidable. But British Prime Minister Tony Blair, the closest ally of the US, warned Saddam not to play again the game of "hide and seek" with the UNMOVIC inspectors, as he did with those of the defunct UN Special Committee (UNSCOM). The Bush Administration, though content to see inspectors back in Iraq and holding a wide range of powers, seems to be bracing itself for the most likely outcome -- that the inspectors will find nothing. The general view is that this will be the trigger for US- led military action against Iraq. Indeed, pro- war sentiments never abated in Washington, even though the inspectors are currently at work in Baghdad. An American magazine disclosed on Saturday that a consensus is forming within the Bush Administration on how to govern Iraq in the event of a successful US military campaign against Baghdad. The administration envisions an initial period of military rule. US News and World Report said senior Bush Administration officials are mulling over a three-stage plan for governing a post- war Iraq. The plan was put together by an inter-agency task force dubbed the Executive Steering Group. The Report stated that administration officials have been debating the plan for the past several weeks and have made several decisions regarding post-Saddam Iraq, including a decision not to create a provisional government or a government in exile. The magazine said that under the first phase envisioned by the plan, Iraq would be ruled by the military and that there would almost certainly be an American general. The second phase, according to the magazine, would take the form of some sort of international civilian administration, entailing diminished US military presence and the Iraqis being given an increased amount of responsibility in government. Under the third phase, power would be transferred to a representative, multi-ethnic Iraqi government after some sort of constitutional convention. It said President Bush has been kept abreast of progress on the plan but had not yet been asked to approve any specific aspects. The magazine said the "general hope" was that the period of military rule would last somewhere between six months and a year. The most optimistic officials see an Iraqi government in place within two years, it said. To push developments towards war and military occupation, Washington may force a crisis in conjunction with the inspections, which many observers believe could come right after the 8 December deadline. If the Bush Administration considers Iraq's declaration as neither complete nor final, its anti-Saddam rhetoric will certainly fall on fertile soil. But Washington first has to prove it to the world.
