As the Security Council continues its debates Iraq prepares for the worst, reports Tarek Hassan from Baghdad Splits in the international community over the handling of the Iraqi crisis have fuelled a mood in Baghdad that swings between hopes of averting war and fears of the worst. In its Wednesday issue, the official Iraqi daily, Babel, run by President Saddam Hussein's elder son, Uday, said that the international community is now convinced Iraq has complied fully with disarmament demands and warned with its usual hyperbole that an American attack on Baghdad would see the US consumed by flames. According to UNMOVIC spokesman Hiro Ueki since 1 March Iraq has scrapped 55 of its 100 or so Al-Samoud 2 missiles, 28 combat warheads, two casting chambers, two launchers, five engines and other components of guidance and control systems associated with the missiles. Baghdad, though, remains suspicious of this week's decision to reduce the number of inspectors in Baghdad from 100 to 70. Iraqi officials are also worried that the inspectors might have a secret evacuation plan -- a sure sign that war is imminent -- though the UNMOVIC spokesman denied this. The current mood in Baghdad contrasts sharply with two weeks ago when officials seemed relaxed, confident that war could be averted. Lieutenant General Amir Al-Saadi, military advisor to President Saddam Hussein, was quoted recently as saying in a closed meeting that "what was happening was nothing more than carrot and stick tactics." Such nonchalence has now been replaced by military preparations in Baghdad. Last week the Iraqi authorities began deporting large numbers of Shi'a from the capital to Najaf and Karbala in southern Iraq and have placed a ban on Iraqis living outside Baghdad from entering or remaining in the city without the permission of the security forces. Anti-aircraft missiles have been set up in most government buildings and trenches dug in many parts of Baghdad. Along the Tigris, which divides the city, tank trenches are also visible. Iraqi military officials believe that the US troops might use the river to occupy Baghdad. Responsibility for protecting Baghdad has been given to a special unit of the Republican Guard, headed by Saddam Hussein's younger son Qusay, and to the Saddam fidayyeen organisation, headed by Uday. The latter comprises 5,000 troops with a fearsome reputation, and it is rumoured that they have orders to shoot anyone violating the curfew that will be imposed on Baghdad with the firing of the first US missile. Recently constructed power stations have been dismantled and, anticipating the total destruction of communication centres, Al-Thoraya satellite phones have been distributed to senior officials in the military, security forces, government and Ba'ath Party. As the military preparations become increasingly visible panic has spread among the city's population. And the confusion has been compounded by a series of contradictory orders, including the demand that all government employees continue working during the war even though a strict curfew has been announced once the military offensive begins. The combination of fear and confusion has led tens of thousands of Iraqis to try and procure passports to leave the country. For some weeks now passports have been issued at the rate of 30,000 passports daily, though it is unlikely that their holders will find a way to leave. Meanwhile, last week state-run Iraqi TV sent yet another confusing signal to the world. Viewers of the daily Guardians of the Nation programme, which is produced by the Iraqi military, were treated to footage of a bearded man wearing a kuffiya and carrying a Katyusha on his shoulder, dressed in a mix of military and civilian clothing. The unidentified man claimed to be stationed in Basra, near the Iraqi border with Kuwait, and said he was one of many Arab volunteers from Syria and Egypt. The man, surrounded by others, announced "we will defend the country and its leader" in a clear Egyptian dialect. According to the government the shadowy figures are volunteers from Arab countries being trained by Iraq's special forces for a series of operations the nature of which was not disclosed. The Iraqi regime appears to be preparing for an urban-guerrilla offensive should the Americans enter Baghdad. Many observers, however, suspect that the Republican Guard and the Saddam fidayyeen will find themselves engaged in battles with a local population intent on venting its anger against the Ba'ath regime once it becomes clear that Saddam's days are numbered.
