Voices from Baghdad are calling for peace, warning that war will be catastrophic not just for Iraq, but for the entire world, writes Michael Jansen in Baghdad Washington continues to speak of war and build up forces in the Gulf despite the fact that United Nations weapons inspectors say they have found no clear proof that Iraq is harbouring weapons of mass destruction. In Baghdad, however, voices are calling on the world to look at the bigger picture. Iraq's deputy prime minister, Tareq Aziz, declared on Monday that Iraq would be "the first, but not the only target" of an Anglo-American war, warning that such a campaign would be waged against the region as a whole. During a meeting with an Irish parliamentary delegation attended by Al-Ahram Weekly, Aziz said that the United States, which had adopted a positive policy towards Iraq during the 1980-88 war with Iran, changed course immediately after the conflict. He said the 1991 war was an outcome of this new policy of aggressive confrontation with Iraq. The ultimate US aim, according to Aziz, is to "recolonise Iraq" and secure control of its oil in order to dominate the entire global economy. He observed that Washington had already taken control over Central Asian oil resources by installing itself in Afghanistan. "Britain, the former colonial power in the Gulf, wants to return," he asserted. He said that US, British, French and Dutch oil companies had divided up the exploitation and sale of the country's oil until Iraq nationalised the industry in 1972. If the US and British succeed in their war aims, he said, "Europe [and Iraq's other customers] will have to go to Chevron rather than SOMO -- [Iraq's state oil company] -- for oil." The worldwide peace movement, "which is now gaining strength, particularly in Europe", is "protecting its own interests" by standing against the Bush administration, Aziz noted. During a discussion with Michael D Higgins, a member of Ireland's lower house and an opponent of the punitive sanctions regime imposed on Iraq in 1990, Aziz made it clear that Baghdad is prepared to cooperate with international efforts to avert war. Aziz said that Iraq would welcome a proposed visit by distinguished international personalities who seek to address the issues of war, disarmament, human rights and democracy and Iraq's relations with its neighbours. He observed, however, that this mission should concentrate on disarmament and the threat of war rather than secondary issues. "We can address these issues once there is no threat of war," he stated. "War is the ultimate violation of human rights." Higgins suggested that this mission -- comprising international figures -- could tackle the issues in phases, starting with the war. Aziz considered this a positive suggestion. He remarked, "Iraqis wonder why people are talking about human rights, democracy and regional security while they are constantly afraid of attack." He said that Iraq had already begun to take action on the other issues. No decision has as yet been reached regarding members of this mission, but former South African President Nelson Mandela, former US President Jimmy Carter and George Papandreou, the foreign minister of Greece -- which currently holds the presidency of the European Union -- are being considered. Ireland is not the only country to send leading personalities to Iraq to try to avert war. There is a constant turnover of foreign delegations at Baghdad's Rashid Hotel as high-profile individuals come and go. This week saw the presence of Hans von Sponeck -- former UN humanitarian coordinator for Iraq who resigned his post in protest at the sanctions regime. He is one of the organisers of the mission. He told the Weekly that the volume of international public opinion against the war has led to the isolation of US President Bush and British Premier Blair. "There is no alliance of the willing, only ultimately an alliance of countries which want to be on the winning side in a war." He warned that, "time is very tight. We must start this mission in early February. It won't be the only peace move. Thirty-seven members of the European Parliament are due to visit. The non-aligned and African Union are active, and we are trying to encourage the pope to become involved." He added, "there is no justification for war. The [popular] vocal rejection of war has grown, and we must cultivate that rejection. Each day that war does not take place increases the chances for peace." Denis Halliday, another former US humanitarian coordinator for Iraq who resigned his post, is also in Baghdad. He told the Weekly that US President Bush and British Prime Minister Blair will have to enter a "unilateral war". "I have hope that the Security Council will not go to war." But he does not believe Bush and Blair will launch their campaign -- if it will be launched -- immediately. He said that the strike in Venezuela had deprived the US of 13 per cent of its oil supplies and that an immediate war in Iraq would alienate US consumers because a conflict would produce fuel shortages. He also maintains that Bush and Blair are under pressure to give the inspectors some more time and, ultimately, arrange for their departure before launching a war. "The inspectors must be ordered to leave by the Security Council," he said. "But the Council is deeply divided on the issue of war." Furthermore, he said that Hans Blix and Mohamed El-Baradei, the heads of the inspection teams, are determined to keep their teams in the field for as long as possible in the hope that they will be given sufficient time -- months rather than weeks -- to do their job properly, i.e. to enable Iraq to be disarmed peacefully, rather than by force. Both Iraqis and internationals agree that a new war would be a catastrophe for Iraq and the region. On the eve of the release of the UN weapons inspectors' report, the independent International Study Team of Canadian and Norwegian doctors and public health experts, which reported on the situation of Iraqi children in the immediate aftermath of the 1991 war, issued an interim report on the present situation. The team based its findings on information collected in the field and provided by UN and non-governmental organisations. The current mortality rate amongst babies and young children is 2.5 times that of 1990 -- before the imposition of sanctions and the war. Eric Hoskins, team coordinator, said that 13 million Iraqi children "are at grave risk of death, starvation and trauma if there is another war. They are more vulnerable than ever" after 12 years of sanctions. Although "nutrition has improved" since the oil-for-food programme began in 1997, half a million are "malnourished and underweight". "No one is ready for war," Hoskins said. "Sixteen million Iraqis are totally dependent on rations." The UN and international relief agencies are prepositioning supplies, but these could be depleted very quickly depending on the level of destruction and disruption. He said that during the 1991 war the infrastructure, which depends on electric power, was reduced to five per cent capacity. It has recovered to a level of 68 per cent. "The consequences of a new war will be similar to those of the last," he asserted. Two Norwegian psychologists, Atle Dyregrov and Magne Raundalen, who have conducted field surveys here before, interviewed 91 children and handed out 200 questionnaires to 12-year-olds in schools in Baghdad, Kerbala and Basra. They found that children were consumed by a fear which they could not discuss with their parents, who were also fearful and traumatised. Raundalen said, "Iraqi parents have no good news to tell their children. Their attitude is: If you don't talk about your fear, we won't talk about ours." Francis Dubois, the UN Development Programme's representative in Baghdad, was uncharacteristically candid for an international civil servant. "It is very important for us to realise what we [the international community] are doing to this country." He asked, "what hope are we giving to its youth, to their future? War and sanctions have reduced Iraq -- a country with a long history of civilisation, an educated population, oil and industry -- to the level of Lesotho," a poor African country which does not have Iraq's huge advantages.
