Only hours away from an imminent military onslaught on Iraq, the question remains: who will rule after Saddam? Omayma Abdel-Latif reports In an attempt to close ranks and involve the Iraqi opposition in an imminent regime change, members of the Iraqi opposition in exile are scheduled to meet in London on 29 March to formally adopt the plan for a transitional coalition government in post-Saddam Iraq, leading Iraqi opposition sources told Al-Ahram Weekly on Wednesday. The meeting, sources said, aims to outline the plan for a federal structure of power-sharing among Iraq's various religious and ethnic groups. "This meeting will bring together liberal and democratic Iraqis who will seek ways to allow the Iraqi people the opportunity to elect whomever they see fit during the transitional period," Adnan Baja-ji, the former Iraqi foreign minister and one of the prominent Iraqi opposition figures in exile, told the Weekly in a telephone interview from Abu Dhabi. The meeting will be held against the backdrop of an American-led military invasion of Iraq. Baja-ji dismissed, however, that there has been any coordination with the US administration, emphasising that "this meeting will be held for Iraqis to decide the fate of their own country." The meeting comes shortly after another gathering of the various factions of Iraqi opposition in exile which was held in the city of Arbil in northern Iraq. Baja-ji pledged to build a free, democratic Iraq that will be tolerant of all political persuasions and will not allow sectarian politics. He acknowledged the need for a bigger role for the United Nations once Saddam is dislodged from power. "The UN is a neutral body which enjoys legitimacy and can assist the Iraqis in the transitional period because an American occupation of Iraq will not be tolerated by all Iraqis," Baja-ji said. He explained that there is nearly a consensus among Iraqis in exile that there should be an "Iraqi civil administration" to preserve the territorial integrity of Iraq, maintain law and order, provide the necessary services to the Iraqi people and pave the ground for a free and fair election to build what he described as "a founding society" whose task will be to prepare a constitution that will secure a peaceful transition of power. Baja-ji insisted that such a huge undertaking cannot be accomplished without the assistance of "the UN, first and foremost, and all the concerned parties". In the view of some analysts, this scenario, despite its plausibility, might seem optimistic in light of a complicated reality. It reflects the dilemma caused by the moral and political standoff that has arisen among the various factions of the Iraqi opposition in exile. With a divided opposition plagued by bickering and infighting, the question becomes one of legitimacy, said Kamil Al-Mahdi, professor of Middle East Economics at Exeter University and an Iraqi dissident. "In pursuit of establishing a new political system in Iraq, the most important question is which are the sections of the Iraqi opposition that truly represent the Iraqi people," he said. "Most of the names which have been put forward as potential rulers of Iraq don't have any political weight or knowledge about the current situation in Iraq. Besides, they come on a foreign ticket, which is a liability in the view of Iraqis," Al-Mahdi told the Weekly. In light of the week's developments, Al- Mahdi's argument holds water since none of the Iraqi opposition leaders in exile have managed to galvanise considerable support from the rest of the opposition factions. This is why many analysts believe that the disunity of the Iraqi opposition will make it almost impossible to form a transitional government from its ranks. One of the names that is regularly suggested as Iraq's new ruler is Ahmed Chalabi, head of the Iraqi National Congress (INC). He was dubbed by many news reports as "America's future man in Baghdad". There are, however, many question marks surrounding Chalabi, who comes from a notable Shi'ite family but enjoys little popularity among the various opposition factions in exile or inside Iraq. Another figure is 64-year old Nizar Al-Khazraji, former Iraqi chief of staff who defected to Denmark four years ago but disappeared earlier this week. According to the London-based Al-Sharq Al-Awsat newspaper, Al-Khazraji was seen on Monday in Kuwait accompanied by US intelligence personnel. This led to growing speculations that Al-Khazraji could be appointed to head the transitional government. Earlier this week, Iraqi opposition leaders in talks with US envoy Zalmay Khalilzad in Ankara have said that the US has proposed a civilian Iraqi administration to govern the country within weeks after the end of the war, therefore putting to rest speculations about Washington's intention to appoint an American military governor in Baghdad. Ghassan Al-Attiyah, a London-based Iraqi dissident who attended the Iraqi opposition's latest meetings in Arbil last month, told the Weekly that while the picture is still vague, there is a role to play for the opposition. "The meetings of the opposition factions in the city of Arbil resulted in forming a unified field command with military units. This command includes the Kurdish parties, the Badr Brigade as well as all the forces fighting the regime," Al- Attiyah explained. He stressed that these forces would have an important role in "liberating" Iraq and in ensuring security when Saddam is dislodged from power. However, he declined to elaborate on what role will be given to the opposition in the political restructuring of Iraq. "No one knows which forces will shape the future of the Iraqi polity, but one thing all Iraqis will not tolerate is replacing a dictator with another dictator blessed by America." Who is whom in the Iraqi opposition: There are 11 secular nationalist opposition groups, most important of which are the Iraqi National Congress (INC) headed by Ahmed Chalabi, the Iraqi National Accord (Al-Wifaq), the Iraq Communist Party, the Constitutional Monarchy movement led by Al- Sharif Ali Bin Al-Hussein and the Free Iraq Council headed by Said Saleh Jabr. There are five Islamist movements, most important of which are the Al-Da'wa Al-Islamiya led by Mohamed Baqr Al-Sadr and the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) (Al-Majlis Al-Ala lil Thawra fi Al-Iraq) which is the main Shi'ite opposition movement. There are five national officers' groups consisting of army officers who have defected from Iraq during the 1980s and 1990s. The most prominent of them are the Free Officers Movement led by Brigadier- General Najib Al-Salihi and the Higher Council for National Salvation (HCNS), a Denmark-based group led by Wafiq Hamud Al-Samarra'i.
