Gamal Mubarak's outspoken talk at the American University in Cairo last week has triggered a wide-ranging debate, reports Gamal Essam El-Din The debate over Egypt's political reform programme was turned up a notch this week, in the wake of a talk given by Gamal Mubarak, the 39-year-old son of President Hosni Mubarak and the chairman of the ruling National Democratic Party's (NDP) influential Policy Secretariat, at the American University in Cairo (AUC) on 5 May. Pundits agreed that the speech was especially significant because it raised three thorny issues: the younger Mubarak's increasingly influential role in Egypt's politics; the future parameters of the country's political system; and the NDP's shift from a populist to a more pragmatic political platform. At AUC, Mubarak spoke extensively of the NDP's ideological shift. The party was being transformed, he said, from one that practiced a politics of populism to one that based its decisions more on pragmatism. "Politics can never be guided by popular sentiment," Mubarak said. "Doing that might win you praise in the short term, but in the long term you will pay a very heavy price." He cited the floatation of the Egyptian pound, liberalising agricultural rent policies, and normalising relations with Israel, as examples of pragmatic rather than popular policies. The future promised even more difficult decisions, Mubarak ventured, which were certain to inspire "fierce attacks, mainly from those who claim to be the guardians of limited-income classes". "We are prepared to take the interests of the lower-income classes into account," he said, "but we will not let that hobble our reform efforts." Political observers speaking to Al- Ahram Weekly believe the "difficult options" of which Mubarak spoke will probably include the adoption of stringent (and unpopular) fiscal reforms with a view towards securing a free trade agreement with the United States, as well as a phasing out of subsidies on basic goods. According to Al-Ahali, the leftist Tagammu Party's mouthpiece, these will also include a renormalising of relations with Israel, sparked by a sure-to-be-controversial visit to Egypt by Israel's hawkish prime minister, Ariel Sharon. Mubarak himself surprised the AUC audience when he hinted at one of the most potentially charged issues of the future -- the elimination of free education. "It will be impossible to continue to offer free education for ever," he said. According to Hossam Badrawi, the chairman of parliament's education committee and a major advocate of both the privatisation of education and health services, as well as a phasing out of subsidies, it was tremendously courageous of Mubarak to announce that this sort of pragmatism would be at the heart of the NDP's future. "In its 25-year history," Badrawi said, "the NDP has never dared to declare itself in such a way, even though this has cost the country a great deal." Another supporter and close associate of Mubarak, parliamentary budget committee chairman Ahmed Ezz, also applauded Mubarak's arguments, saying that the government's subsidy policies are not fiscally prudent and must be scrapped as soon as possible. While the actual phasing out of subsidies and acceleration of Egyptian- Israeli ties are certain to be fodder for controversy, the fact that Mubarak was willing to clarify the NDP's position scored points with political pundits of all stripes. Mubarak's views on constitutional reform, on the other hand, were far less universally admired. Opposition figures were especially critical of the younger Mubarak's view that amending the 32-year-old constitution was not a prerequisite for introducing political and economic change. At AUC, Mubarak said, "the constitution must be interpreted in a flexible way. Take, for example, the fact that the constitutional court ruled (in February 1997) that privatisation policies are not in violation of the constitution, even if the latter states that Egypt's economic foundation is based on the socialist system and that the public sector is basically invested with accomplishing the state's development plans." According to Yehia El-Gamal, a Cairo University professor of constitutional law, this argument is too facile. "It's true that we have to be flexible in interpreting the economic facets of the constitution, but interpreting its political facets is a different story altogether. For example, it is utterly impossible to curtail the president's powers without amending the constitution first," said El- Gamal. Most opposition observers agreed with El-Gamal. One pundit, Tagammu Party Secretary-General Rifaat El-Said, said, "the constitution must be amended to state that Egypt is a parliamentary, rather than a socialist, democracy based on the multi-party system and the rotation of political power." It is no secret that many opposition political figures find the younger Mubarak's increasing involvement in politics cause for concern. One opposition figure told the Weekly that he had hoped to hear a clear-cut statement by Mubarak about his "not having any ambitions to run for president, and thus turn Egypt into a hereditary republic". When asked about this issue at AUC, Mubarak said that running for president was "not on my mind". That answer, said another opposition pundit, "was too simple and half-hearted considering the importance of the question". Other opposition figures also expressed concern over the fact that "leading NDP figures and state-controlled media personalities seem to be warming to the idea that Mubarak becoming the next president would be a step forward for democracy, since he would be Egypt's first civilian ruler in half a century." According to Hussein Abdel-Razeq, the leftist Tagammu Party's assistant secretary-general, last September's NDP congress was mandated to place Mubarak at the helm of power. "It is now clear," said Abdel-Razeq, "that the Policy Secretariat was created especially for Mubarak to lead, and has been transformed into Egypt's supreme policy- making body." At AUC, Mubarak denied that the NDP congress's goal had been to place him in the political limelight. "The congress marked the beginning of a long- term reform process which my young colleagues and I in the party vowed to launch following the 2000 elections," he said.
