Democratisation, subsidies, free education and ties with the United States will all figure prominently in next September's first annual NDP conference. Gamal Essam El-Din reports In its bid to reinvent itself, the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) decided that -- in addition to the general party congress held every five years -- an annual NDP conference should also be organised every year. Last week the party scheduled its first annual conference for 27-28 September 2003. The party plans to assess its performance over the past year, and discuss plans for the next one. According to NDP Secretary-General Safwat El-Sherif, President Hosni Mubarak -- the party's chairman -- will address the conference delegates; namely, members of the party's politburo (13) and general-secretariat (25); its deputies at the People's Assembly and Shura Council (around 640), the members of 12 central secretariats (around 300) and the party's Higher Council for Policies (150), as well as leading officials from both the party's provincial branches and its smaller local offices. El-Sherif boasted of the party's achievements over the past year -- containing public anger over the war in Iraq, moving forward on the road to political reform (by setting up a national commission on human rights and abolishing state security courts), passing a significant number of market-oriented laws (concerning banking, labour and intellectual property rights) and drafting a new law governing family disputes. He also suggested that the party had managed to successfully 'reinvigorate' its ranks (via an annual 20 per cent average turnover in elected cadres at smaller local offices), as well as convey the importance of active participation in political life to a large segment of the "silent masses". These issues, along with the party's financial balance sheet and next year's budget, will be debated at the conference. On several of these matters, observers are predicting, the conference will be rife with disagreements, primarily between those termed the party's "old guard" (led by Information Minister Safwat El-Sherif and Minister for Parliamentary Affairs Kamal El-Shazli), and its "future generation" (led by Gamal Mubarak and members of his Policy Secretariat). Those in the latter camp were particularly shocked by El- Sherif's announcement last week that the party's first annual conference will not include any change to the party's structure and ranks. "This is the five-year general congress's job, not the annual conference's," he said. Political observers described El-Sherif's statement as shocking and depressing. October magazine Editor-in-Chief Ragab El- Banna, wrote that, "El-Sherif's announcement shocked public opinion because people are suffering from political stagnation and are eager to see some kind of change." El- Sherif's announcement also seemed to go against recent talk within the party about making serious attempts to reform and democratise the NDP from within, ahead of September's first annual conference. In fact, in May, Youth Minister Alieddin Hilal -- a leading NDP figure -- said that the conference would feature elections for the party's chairman, general secretariat and politburo. According to Safwat El-Sherif, however, the "Party's chairman, President Hosni Mubarak, believes that stability is of paramount importance to ensure the continuing realisation of the party's recognised objectives and programmes." Opposition figures interpreted the seeming discrepancy as a signal of the widening gulf between the party's two camps. Independent MP Adel Eid told Al-Ahram Weekly that it was clear that each of the NDP's two rival camps was doing its best to marginalise the other. "It is highly significant," said Eid, "that El-Sherif's recent announcement about the party's first annual congress was made while some of the party's leading members were in the United States." Eid was not very enthusiastic about the NDP's list of achievements. "The anti-government demonstrations during the war in Iraq, and the rigging of by- elections in the districts of Al-Raml (Alexandria), Damanhour (Beheira) and Abdin (Cairo) clearly show that the NDP's popularity is more artificial than authentic," Eid said. In fact, observers are expecting September's NDP event to feature internal disagreements over the party's basic goals. El- Sherif surprised an NDP meeting two weeks ago by stressing that the party is "a popular political party". He cited President Mubarak as saying that "the credibility of the party is measured by how successful it is in adopting popular causes." El-Sherif provided two cases -- subsidies and free education -- where the NDP's resistance to market-oriented reform was in keeping with its goal of "satisfying popular sentiments". This outlook contrasted sharply with what Gamal Mubarak, the 39-year-old son of President Hosni Mubarak and chairman of the NDP's influential Policy Secretariat, said during a meeting at the American University in Cairo (AUC) last May. At AUC, Mubarak spoke extensively of the NDP's ideological shift. The party was being transformed, he said, from one that practised a politics of populism to one that based its decisions more on pragmatism. "Politics can never be guided by popular sentiment. Doing that might win you praise in the short term, but in the long term you will pay a heavy price," Mubarak said. Mubarak has support amongst the party's young leaders, especially MPs Ahmed Ezz and Hossam Badrawi, who believe the NDP must adopt a tougher reform regimen, especially when it comes to subsidies and free education. Ezz, chairman of parliament's budget committee, argued that subsidies not only strip the country of economic efficiency, but also fail to serve the purposes for which they are earmarked. The committee's report on the country's 2003/2004 budget cites figures from the Central Auditing Agency to argue that -- despite huge appropriations of direct and indirect subsidies (LE24.7 billion worth) -- education and health services delivered by government schools and hospitals are in bad shape. The report suggested that offering such essential services for free does not generate the incentives needed to improve them. Badrawi, chairman of parliament's education committee, also thinks that free education costs Egypt a lot in term of low competitiveness and inefficient use of resources. According to Gamal Mubarak at AUC, "It will be impossible to continue to offer free education for ever." El-Sherif, Education Minister Hussein Kamel Bahaaeddin, and Prime Minister Atef Ebeid, however, have attacked these "pragmatic" ideas. El-Sherif and Bahaaeddin insisted that free education is a basic guaranteed right for citizens, especially the poor. "The NDP can not dispense with the poorer classes at a time President Mubarak is emphasising the importance of social subsidies," El-Sherif said. Ebeid attacked the budget committee's report, stressing that subsidies are a basic pillar of the NDP-supported government's policies. The NDP's aversion towards amending the 32-year-old constitution, meanwhile, is one matter that the party's old guard and its future generation seem to be in agreement on. El-Sherif said amending the constitution is not a priority [for political democratisation] because Egypt already has several laws in place that support citizens' participation in political life. The comment was a response to repeated calls by opposition parties for the constitution to be amended because it gives the president of the republic sweeping powers, at the expense of legislative and judicial authorities. Four opposition parties met last May to form a "unified front" aimed at laying the groundwork for a charter featuring the political reforms they say Egypt desperately needs to be a real parliamentary democracy--namely, that the constitution be amended to clearly specify that the president remain in office for no more than two terms, and that several contenders must compete for the post. Asked in Washington two weeks ago if political inclusion might extend to opening up the presidential process, Gamal Mubarak said, "this is not in the plans." The so-called united front, however, itself seems confused about its orientation. According to No'man Gomaa, chairman of the Wafd Party, the front is not meant to be "an anti-NDP bloc". In fact, Gomaa explicitly said the goal was to conduct a political dialogue with the NDP. For its part, the NDP rejects the idea of a dialogue with a so-called "front", while opposition parties -- Gomaa's comments notwithstanding -- have no interest in involving the NDP. Another issue that promises to figure prominently on the NDP's first annual conference agenda is the relationship between Egypt and the US. The slow pace of free trade area (FTA) talks has provoked the ire of some leading NDP members and MPs who complained about America deciding not to sign an FTA with Egypt even though Egypt is one of 43 countries which have "caved in" to American pressure and signed agreements protecting US citizens from appearing before the International Criminal Court (ICC) set up last year to hear allegations of crimes against humanity. An NDP MP, who asked not to be identified, told the Weekly that "although our strategic friendship with America has proven to be highly beneficial for Egypt, the fact remains that America always gives the impression that its friendship means that you have to bow down to its pressure under all circumstances." In fact, some MPs were so angry at the turn of the events that they demanded that Egypt drop its request for an FTA altogether, and focus on Arab integration instead. In response, Osama El-Baz, President Mubarak's senior political adviser, said, "it is wrong to cut contacts with the US. This does not mean we submit to its pressure because differences in viewpoints are expected and accepted." El-Sherif said, "We can never accept pressure because we are a democratic nation." Prime Minister Atef Ebeid, meanwhile, indicated that cabinet committees would be formed to reinforce strategic relations with the United States.
