Diplomat turned politician Ilham Aliyev is to succeed his father Haydar as president of Azerbaijan to the chagrin of Azeri opposition parties, writes Mustafa El-Labbad Rumours of the death of Haydar Aliyev, president of oil-rich Azerbaijan, dominated national news in that Caspian state this week. Although the Azeri opposition confirmed the rumours, government officials countered that Aliyev was now in good health and that he would soon return to the country from Ankara where he had been receiving treatment in a military hospital. Whether deceased or in critical or stable condition, the frenzy over the state of health of the Azeri leader brings to mind a not- too-distant Soviet era when news of the death of a head of state was kept under the tightest wraps until his successor had secured a firm grip on the reins of power. Of course, the "masses" always knew well beforehand who the successor would be by means of a tried and true indicator: he was generally the person put in charge of the committee that would perform the obsequies over the "late leader". That was how power passed from Yuri Andropov to Konstantin Chernenko and from Chernenko to Mikhail Gorbachev. Fortunately, in the case of the former Soviet republic Azerbaijan, in spite of the similarities between its current situation and the Soviet syndrome, there seems to have been a marked improvement in the ability to forecast a successor. Sources in the Azeri capital Baku and the international media have little or no doubt that Ilham Aliyev, son of the current president, will step into his father's shoes in the event of the latter dying or becoming incapacitated. Although a relatively small country (86,600 square km), Azerbaijan has drawn the attention of international and regional powers because of its vast offshore reserves of oil and natural gas under the Caspian Sea. The US has already purchased drilling rights to most of Azerbaijan's oil fields, while Turkey and Iran, vying to enhance their geostrategic positions with respect to one another, are vying to secure exclusive rights to a pipeline that would transport oil from the landlocked Caspian to their ports that are accessible to international waterways. The tug-of-war between Iran, Turkey and international oil companies over Azerbaijan has been called the "New Great Game" in reference 19th century "Great Game" between the former Russian and British empires, each of which vied for control over the Caucasuses and Central Asia. Haydar, who has ruled the small republic since 1993, wasted little time in grooming his son for succession. In 1994, he appointed Ilham vice-president of Azeri National Oil Company, the largest Azeri company in terms of both assets and production. Beginning in the mid-1990s, Ilham would accompany his father on important trips abroad, such as the 1996 visit to the White House, during which he met then US President Bill Clinton and signed a $10 billion dollar contract according the US the lion's share of Azerbaijani oil concessions. The contract was dubbed the "deal of the century" because of the vast Azerbaijani reserves this placed at the disposal of US oil firms. Two years ago, President Aliyev began to push to have his son appointed speaker of the Milli Mejlis, or Parliament. Under the Azerbaijani constitution the speaker of parliament automatically assumes power in the event of the death or incapacitation of the president until general elections can be held. Thwarted by increasing opposition both at home and abroad to what was widely regarded as a bid to fabricate dynastic succession, Haydar opted for a fallback position, which was to appoint Ilham deputy chairman of the ruling New Azerbaijan Party, thereby ensuring him a continued high political profile. The move has apparently paid off, much to the relief of Aliyev senior, whose deteriorating health has been dramatically evidenced by repeated fainting spells while delivering public addresses, the last occurrence during the commemoration of Azerbaijan's National Day on 18 May. On Monday, parliament elected Ilham as prime minister, putting him squarely in line for succession. Last summer, following a controversial referendum, the Azerbaijani constitution was amended to provide that the prime minister, rather than the speaker of parliament, automatically assume power in the event the president is incapacitated. As the succession controversy rages, Azerbaijan, with a population of almost eight million, has a number of other worries. With a the national currency the manat falling against the dollar and declining standards of living, the economy is on a downswing in spite of rising petroleum revenues which have raised -- nominally -- the annual GDP per capita to $3,300. There also remains considerable bitterness over the question of the province of Nagorno- Karabakh. Following several years of unrest in which the province's predominantly Christian Armenian population declared independence, violence escalated into armed confrontation between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The conflict ended in an uneasy truce and the end of Baku's effective sovereignty over the province, which makes up 16 per cent of Azerbaijan's land area. Azerbaijanis today regard the loss of the "Black Garden", Karabakh's English translation, a black mark in the 3,000 year history of their people. But tensions not only prevail with Armenia but also with Iran. In 2001, the heightening dispute between Baku and Tehran over the demarcation of their respective territorial waters in the oil-rich Caspian Sea drove Baku into an alliance with Turkey, which offered to provide Turkish air force cover should the situation demand. Aggravating Azerbaijan's many problems is a crisis of political leadership, which, according to the opposition at least, is on the verge of collapse. Haydar has been the single most powerful figure in Azerbaijani politics since the 1960s, when he was appointed head of the KGB branch in Baku. From that position he rose to chairman of the Azerbaijani Communist Party, and his subsequent membership in the Soviet Politburo, the only member to ever have Muslim origins. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the then president of Azerbaijan, Abulfaz Elchibey declared his country independent from Moscow. In the ensuing chaos, Elchibey invited Haydar to return and side with him in the civil war between Azerbaijani nationalists and dissidents supported by Moscow. Haydar became president in 1993, following the overthrow of Elchibey. Since then he has worked to consolidate relations with the White House, succeeding in securing Washington's support of Azerbaijan's interests in the Caspian-Caucasus region. Now that the Central Election Commission has approved the candidacy of Ilham in the presidential elections scheduled for October, the path towards the transfer of power from father to son appears clear. Ilham, 41, a graduate of the Moscow diplomatic academy, speaks English fluently with a distinct American accent. As far as October's elections are concerned, such qualities play into the father's cultivation of ties between his son and the world's lone superpower. The manner in which Haydar has established his son as a credible leader both domestically and internationally should overwhelm objections to a "neo-monarchist scenario". Thus it appears that as Azerbaijan embarks on a new phase in its history, the voices appealing for democracy, equal opportunity and the peaceful rotation of power in Baku are to be drowned out by the din of America's mammoth drills in the Caspian Sea.
