Mohamed Sid-Ahmed asks whether water shortage in the Middle East is likely to further aggravate the political crises in the region, or help do the opposite I was invited this week by former French Minister of Foreign Affairs Herve de Charette to take part in a symposium in Paris on the issue of scarcity of water which now affects many countries around the world and is particularly critical in the Middle East. What is of great importance for us, Arabs, is how to deal with water shortage in the context of a number of crises occurring concomitantly; some man-made such as the Arab-Israeli conflict, the US occupation of Iraq, etc, and others the product of nature, notably, water shortage. Apparently, no direct link relates the water crisis to man-made conflicts in the area. But the combination of all these crises together marks a continuous deterioration of the situation as a whole. Can a reshuffle of the factors that bring about this grim picture produce a better outcome, circumscribing violence rather than contributing to intensify it? Can a conscious and concerted effort be made in such a direction? Crises due to natural reasons are not affected by political frontiers. With growing globalisation, this is becoming true for man-made crises of a political nature as well. So all interrelates. No crisis can therefore be resolved independently of all others. Even if, in some cases, this can appear to be a possibility. In the Middle East, all ingredients necessary to overcome the water shortage crisis are present: an abundance of sea water, blue skies and a radiant sun, wide stretches of desert land in a triangle extending from the Atlantic Ocean westwards, to Pakistan eastwards, to Bab-Al- Mandeb southwards. The sun is a source of energy which, through the process of water evaporation, then condensation, can separate water from salt and make sea water drinkable. As a matter of fact, one participant in the symposium came forward with details concerning a very interesting recent discovery; namely the existence of extensive layers in the sea depths of potable water that emanates from the overflow into the sea of underground salt-free water, and which remains for a significant period separated from sea water itself. The desalination of the sea is no longer the impossible -- or prohibitive -- endeavour it has appeared. The symposium revealed that, thanks to a new technical discovery, Israel has succeeded to bring down the price of desalinating each cubic metre of sea water from one dollar to a half dollar. On the other hand, it has been calculated that three rows of concave mirrors extending along the Mediterranean coastline from Casablanca to Rafah could produce an amount of electrical power four times the amount now consumed by the whole of Europe. In the light of such potentialities, desalinating vast swathes of sea water is no longer an impossible dream: neither need such an endeavour expose the remaining sea water to high salinity, thus threatening the survival of sea life; nor need it be uneconomical, taking too little sea water and keeping the cost of desalination, thereby, too high. It is amazing that separating sea water from salt still remains a riddle on Earth at a time when science has progressed to the point of exploring the prospects of re-hydrating Mars! But more important, perhaps, is what the symposium revealed concerning Israel's ability to lower the price of desalinating sea water. Without making much ado about it, Israel is said to be building four huge desalination plants inside the country and a fifth to confront the growing water scarcity outside Israel's frontiers. The whole project is designed to face a crisis which Israel is certain to face, and which may reach its most critical stage at the end of the present decade. By acting in this manner, the Israeli government will not only be consolidating its hold over occupied Palestinian territory, but by becoming a key actor in the solution of the regional water crisis, will extend its authority over all countries in the region suffering from this crisis. I have often written throughout the last decade on the issue of water shortage in the Middle East and how this crisis could be used as a political weapon in the Arab- Israeli conflict. I have argued that the Arab side should use its financial assets -- in particular its oil revenues -- to build desalination plants on a wide scale; an endeavour that will bring prices down, encourage new discoveries, and thus deprive Israel of its present supremacy in this field. But what in the past was a choice that Arab parties could adopt or not, is now becoming an imperative -- if the balance of power between protagonists is to be improved. With water shortage reaching unprecedented heights, the future of Arab-Israeli relations could depend on this critical factor. Israel, in this competition, has a qualitative edge; namely, scientific and technological know-how that it is ready to use to its benefit. The weapon the Arab parties have -- namely, the immensity of their deserts, the value of their oil deposits, etc -- is rather of a quantitative nature. Quantity could eventually submerge quality, provided given conditions are met. Israel alone cannot cope with Arab quantity. It is only if Western cooperation with Israel takes precedence over Western cooperation with Arabs in overcoming the water crisis that the Arab side is seriously impaired. It seems, for the time being, indeed, that the US, the European Union and Japan are investing billions of dollars in Israeli desalination projects for the region as a whole. But this would mean, if true, that the line Western capitals declare they advocate for overcoming the water crisis is the very opposite of the one they advocate for a solution of the political conflicts in the Middle East. When it comes to water shortage, instead of reducing the gap between the protagonists, the West is widening it. This was a key point I believed necessary to emphasise at the Paris symposium, held in the European capital best placed to appreciate the threat such double standards could pose.
