Turkey's relations with the US -- and US hopes for tougher sanctions against Iran -- suffered another blow last week with the House Foreign Affairs Committee resolution condemning the "genocide" of Armenians during the last years of the Ottoman Empire, reports Gareth Jenkins The vote came despite a last minute intervention by the Obama administration which is anxious to placate Turkey as Washington prepares to push for increased sanctions against Iran. The resolution was passed by the slimmest of margins with 23 of the committee members voting for it and 22 against. Nevertheless, Turkey reacted furiously, recalling its ambassador and warning that the vote could have serious repercussions for its ties with the US. The overwhelming majority of independent historians accept that what happened to the Armenians in the final years of the Ottoman Empire -- particularly during the deportations and widespread massacres in 1915-16 -- constitutes a genocide and that anything from 600,000 to 1.5 million people perished. This has been denied by successive Turkish governments, who argue that only 300,000 died; mostly as a direct or indirect result of an uprising by Armenian nationalists. Turkey's case has not been helped by the fact that, until recently, it was a criminal offence in Turkey even to suggest that a genocide occurred. As a result, the majority of Turks have grown up regarding accusations of a genocide as being the product of racist and religious prejudice rather than historical reality. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu condemned the House Committee's recognition of the agenda: "This decision has condemned a nation," he declared. "Turkey's history, culture and civilisation make it a very great state," said Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. "Everybody will see this." For the Obama administration, the Turkish reaction is both an embarrassment and a concern. Privately, Turkish officials have already warned that Ankara could respond by restricting Washington's use of the Incirlik airbase in southeastern Turkey, which is expected to be one of the main US transport hubs as it reduces its troop presence in Iraq. But a more pressing concern is likely to be Iran. As a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council, Turkey will have a vote if the US presses for increased sanctions against Iran amid concerns over its nuclear programme. Perhaps more importantly, Turkey's long border and close economic ties with Iran mean that Washington needs Ankara's active support if any sanctions against Tehran are to be effective. At the moment, it is far from certain that such support will be forthcoming. Despite increasing international concerns that Tehran is attempting to build a nuclear bomb, Erdogan continues to insist that he believes Iranian claims that its nuclear programme is solely for peaceful purposes. He has also repeatedly called on the international community to concentrate instead on trying to disarm the one known nuclear power in the region, namely Israel. In the wake of the House Committee vote, officials from Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) delivered another blow to Turkey's already strained relations with Israel by declaring that, instead of condemning something that happened nearly a century ago, the US should be concentrating on the ongoing deaths of Palestinian civilians at the hands of the Israelis. Turkish-Israeli relations have been in freefall since January 2009, when Erdogan famously stormed out of a summit meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, after accusing Israeli President Shimon Peres of "knowing very well how to kill". In previous years, whenever a resolution on the Armenian genocide has come before the House Committee, Jewish groups and associations in the US have worked vigorously for its rejection. This year, the Jewish lobby remained silent. The genocide resolution will now be forwarded to the House of Representatives. During the 2008 US presidential campaign, both Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama promised that they would recognise the Armenian genocide if they were elected. Fears of antagonising Turkey have meant that both have now backtracked and, albeit rather belatedly, expressed their opposition to the motion put before the House Committee. Although they failed to prevent the committee approving the resolution, they may be more successful when it comes to the full House of Representatives; and may be able to prevent it even being debated. But, even if the resolution is never approved by the House of Representatives, there is no doubt that its adoption by the Foreign Affairs Committee has further weakened the already faltering relationship between Ankara and Washington. It also comes at a time of increasing tension between Turkey and the West as a whole, amid accusations that the AKP is suppressing freedom of speech and imprisoning its actual or potential political opponents on trumped-up charges of belonging to fictional terrorist organisations. But, as it looks to the future, the choice for the AKP is not as simple as between East and West. The Obama administration is probably right to be worried that House Committee's vote will make it more difficult to persuade Turkey to support sanctions against Iran. But refusing to pressure Iran over its nuclear programme will not necessarily win the AKP any new friends in the Middle East. Whatever they may think of other US policies, there are many in the region who share Washington's scepticism about Tehran's insistence that its nuclear programme is only for peaceful purposes; and few in the Arab world would like to see a nuclear-armed Iran.
