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Winner takes all
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 08 - 01 - 2004

The breathtaking victory of a Western-educated leader in Georgian pre-term presidential elections opens the way to brave reforms in an impoverished country, reports Shohdy Naguib from Moscow
Georgia's electorate last week voted overwhelmingly for change. Tired of the poverty, corruption and economic misery that had befallen them, Georgians handed a landslide victory to the man who literally drove the former leader, Eduard Shevargnadze, out of power after dramatically storming the parliament last November. , the 36 year-old leader of the "velvet revolution", the charismatic New York lawyer, the uncompromising foe of corruption, is now Georgia's president.
Probable rivals flank every side of Saakashvili, a man artfully polished by Western sophistication. He radiates the sum total of Georgia's aspirations for joining the European fold, and its hopes to escape its catastrophic backwardness.
The massive turnout, which amounted to 83 per cent of eligible voters, gave Misha -- as Saakashvili is tenderly called -- confidence to thank the people of Georgia for their support even after only a tiny fraction of votes from thousands of polling stations across the country had been counted.
Closely monitored by a host of international observers, the elections were deemed a success despite some voter irregularities at the ballots. Whatever the problems, last week's elections were a far cry from those last November, when rampant corruption and ballot rigging during presidential elections triggered the political crisis that wound up sweeping Saakashvili to power.
Since its independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Georgia has been dogged by violence waged by separatist movements in three provinces -- Adjaria, Abkhazia and South Osetia -- which are administered as autonomous regions. However, separatist forces in the largest autonomous region of Abkhazia are particularly keen on creating an independent state. The Georgians claim that Russia has in the past provided military assistance to the Abkhaz separatists, while Georgia was accused by Moscow of supporting Chechen separatists.
A day before the elections, Adjaria agreed to lift the state of emergency, which was imposed in the region immediately after the November events that rocked Tbilisi. The task of convincing its authoritative ruler, Aslan Abashidze, to ease his opposition to Saakashvili was left to United States Ambassador Richard Miles, who many speculate must have assured Abashidze that the new president would not change the previous government's stance on regional autonomy for the enclave. Prior to the election, Abashidze had openly accused Saakashvili of nationalistic flare and unlawfully seizing of power.
Despite the progress made in Adjaria, the two other regions, Abkhazia and South Osetia, have no intention of recognising the new Georgian leader. Because of the state of emergency enforced in these autonomous regions, many voters from those two autonomous regions are reported to have taken the trouble of crossing the borders into Georgia to cast their votes. The fact that Saakashvili was allowed to enter South Osetia on the eve of the elections was called by its leader Eduard Kokoity "a gesture of good will". Saakashvili in turn made a solemn promise that these elections will be the last in which the citizens of the autonomies will not take part.
During a visit to Moscow, Interim President Nino Burdzhanadze addressed the question of Georgia's territorial integrity during talks with senior Russian officials. Both sides confirmed their intention to find "civilised means" in resolving the issue of the unrecognised autonomies that look to Russia for protection. The Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov also used Burdzhanadze's visit to indicate that for the first time Russia might consider lifting the visa restrictions that affect hundreds of thousands of Georgians who live and work in Russia.
Russia has repeatedly accused Georgia of providing a safe haven for the Chechen separatists and at one point even threatened to hunt them down in Georgian territory. Burdzhanadze was purportedly presented with evidence of infiltration of Arab mercenaries across the Georgian border into Chechnya to which she replied that such passages were no longer operational. Saakashvili has promised to warm up ties with Georgia's mighty northern neighbour which deteriorated considerably during Shevargnadze's reign.
Georgia is heavily dependent on Russia for its electricity supply, oil and natural gas, all of which are being provided with diminishing consistency. Georgia's capital Tbilisi is regularly without electricity and most other places in the country generally receive power for a mere two hours a day.
The 1,100-mile Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, designed to deliver oil from the Caspian fields to Turkish ports and on to Europe, is in the process of construction amidst fears that Russia might sabotage it by various covert means. While the pipeline might relieve Georgia's energy crisis in the short term, Georgia is still going to need a great deal of assistance if it is to pull itself out of its misery.
It is hard to imagine what the US can do to put Georgia back on its feet. Already the US gives substantial aid to the country, but it has thus far been unable to jumpstart the Georgian economy. On the contrary, the extent of the country's economic deterioration is astonishing; its foreign debt is estimated to be a sizable $1.75 billion.
The Georgian elite is united behind Saakashvili and is pinning high hopes on Western support, but observers believe that it is only through cooperation with its giant neighbour and natural trading partner Russia that Georgia can truly aspire for an economic regeneration.
Finally, putting an end to Georgia rampant corruption is perhaps the hardest task that the new president will have to tackle. Saakashvili's ongoing personal crusade for fairness and justice is likely to put his life in danger and threaten to turn his ambitious dream into a terrible nightmare. If the new president succeeds in cleaning up the Georgian mess left by his predecessor he will merit the title of a Georgian Hercules. Until then he is just a bright young man who happens to be a friend of the US- based financier and philanthropist George Soros.
Saakashvili's inauguration is set to take place on 25 January, which, coincidentally, is the birthday of the ousted Eduard Shevargnadze. Casting his vote at his home, the ex-president told journalists that he backs Saakashvili, describing him as "young, with a lot of energy and good education". Shevargnadze also praised "his skill of communicating with people". Small wonder then that there is some speculation amongst opposition figures who claim that the whole "velvet revolution" affair was hoax that was planned by the "old grey fox" himself.


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