The political standoff caused by Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani's threat to shun the UN mission in Iraq continued to overshadow the political debate in Iraq this week. Omayma Abdel-Latif reports If the UN was to come back to Iraq, the comeback should be made according to Iraqi terms and conditions. Such was the stand of Iraq's most prominent religious figure, the Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani. In a letter sent last Friday to Lakhdar Labrahimi, the UN secretary-general special envoy to Iraq, Sistani put forward some of those conditions. "Sayyid Sistani," said the letter issued by his office, "will not be party to any meetings or consultations conducted by the UN mission in Iraq during its forthcoming visit until the UN declares that the newly-passed Iraqi constitution -- also known as the fundamental law of the interim administration -- will not be binding to any elected national assembly, and that it will not be referred to in any of the forthcoming UN resolutions regarding Iraq." In his letter, Sistani emphasised that it was Iraq's religious seminary that strove to bring back Iraq to the UN fold and that it was the seminary that insisted on a central role for the international body in supervising the political process and elections in Iraq. The letter was the last in a series of correspondence between Sistani's office and the office of the UN secretary-general. Last month a 10-member team headed by Lakhdar Labrahimi embarked on a visit to Baghdad almost six months after the bombing of the UN headquarters in Iraq. The team, which held talks with the various political forces in the country, came primarily on Sistani's request to explore the feasibility of holding elections before the power handover due by 30 June. Sistani's demand then reflected a growing belief among Iraqis -- including members of the Iraqi Governing Council (IGC) -- that the UN was the body most capable of providing assistance in proceeding with the transitional political process. But according to one political analyst, Sistani's present stand vis-a-vis the UN mission in Iraq reflects a growing sense of scepticism among Iraqis that the UN's return to Iraq is only meant to legitimise the policies of the occupation. "The majority of Iraqis were pinning hopes on UN intervention in the current political process, with the belief that the UN was the sole guarantor that the will of the Iraqis will prevail," explained Kamil Al-Mahdi, professor of political economy at Exeter University who has just returned from Iraq. "If Iraqis begin to suspect that the UN intervention is only meant to cover up for the occupation, the UN role in Iraq will be doomed," he said. Al- Mahdi explained that the Iraqi interim constitution does not leave room for an effective UN role in the transitional period. "This fundamental law," Al-Mahdi went on, "undermines any future role for the international organisation." Sistani also insisted in his letter that "the majority of Iraqi people" do not support this law because it allows for the institutionalisation of sectarianism and factionalism as the basis for any political order in Iraq. "The religious seminary fears that the occupation authorities will push for this law to be included in any future UN resolution, thus bestowing it international legitimacy and forcing it upon the Iraqi people," Sistani said in his letter. Sistani's threat to boycott the forthcoming UN visit to Iraq came shortly after UN Secretary- General Kofi Annan said last week he would send a team to Iraq soon to help in the formation of an interim government in response to requests made by IGC members. The interim government's mandate is likely to remain until next December or January 2005 when elections are due to take place according to the Iraqi interim constitution. Observers say that the forthcoming UN mission is likely to face major hurdles if Sistani's demands are not taken into account. "If Sistani decided to snub the UN, the majority of Iraqis are likely to follow," Al-Mahdi explained. Sistani was a staunch opponent of the ratification of the interim constitution in its present form, insisting that such a constitution would only gain legitimacy if ratified by an elected body. In an attempt to quell Sistani's fears, Adnan Pachachi, veteran Iraqi diplomat and IGC member, said in press statements on Tuesday that he does not expect the interim government to pass any laws if there was no need to. "We are not going to make any major commitments politically or economically because such commitments should be left to an elected government to handle." Observers say that the interim government will only be able to outline the budget and prepare for elections. Pachachi pointed out three scenarios for the future interim government. First, to delegate legislative powers to the IGC, which would be chaired by one person with a number of deputies. Second, to expand the IGC to include a hundred members, thus allowing it to assume the role of a parliament, electing a prime minister and a chairman. Third, to hold a UN-sponsored national convention that will then elect a president and ministers, dissolving itself once elections take place. Observers say that whether or not such scenarios are feasible given the current political context will depend on who of the various Iraqi factions will rally around which of the three. Needless to say, the most important player in this game is the religious seminary. One observer said that unless Sistani's demands are accommodated within such scenarios, he is likely to remain a major obstacle to the US-led occupation authorities, with the possibility of undermining their power handover plan. The situation is further complicated by the decision of the newly elected Spanish government to pull troops out from Iraq soon. The London-based Al-Hayat newspaper said on Tuesday that an American official insisted that the US will go ahead with its plans for power transfer though American military presence in Iraq will remain, with US servicemen reaching up to 110,000. "We will be here. We will maintain big influence and we will have the biggest diplomatic mission in the world in Baghdad. This mission will enjoy huge political clout," the American official was quoted as saying.
