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Old lessons renewed
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 01 - 04 - 2004

Pakistan finds it hard going in the tribal areas, reports Iffat Idris from Islamabad
The British ruled the Indian subcontinent for over 200 years, but the one part they were never able to control was the tribal areas of the northwest. After several very bloody attempts to win the region in battle, they gave up and opted to allow the tribal people autonomy in return for their cooperation. Post- independence, Pakistan adopted the same policy. The tribal people cooperated with the federally appointed Political Agent and were allowed to retain their autonomy.
In recent weeks, however, the Musharraf government has attempted what the British tried and failed: to assert its will through military force. So far it is being meted the same lesson as previous British would-be occupiers.
The military operation in the South Waziristan region of the tribal areas started in mid-March. The Pakistan army's objective was to capture and kill foreign militants believed to be hiding in the area, amid local supporters. The operation was launched after local leaders failed to surrender a number of wanted people by the deadline imposed by the army. Fighting has been extremely fierce, focussed around the town of Wana. To date the Pakistanis have captured some 163 foreign militants -- Arabs, Chechens, Afghans and others. But that success has come at a heavy price.
The Pakistan army is not releasing its own casualty figures until after the operation is completed, but it has clearly been badly hit. Estimates up to last Friday put the army's losses at around 30 (this in the space of just a couple of weeks). An ambush on a supply convoy killed 11 soldiers. A further eight were taken hostage. On Friday local people made the grim discovery of their bodies. They had apparently been killed in cold blood. Their fate does not bode well for another 14 army and paramilitary hostages, seized at the beginning of the Wana operation.
Over the past few days, the fighting has become less intense as the army appears wary of launching further offensives -- hardly surprising, given its massive losses. Instead, it seems to be returning to the traditional way of working through local leaders. A jirga (council) of leaders from across the tribal areas has been negotiating with the army and Political Agent on one side, and the concerned tribes on the other.
The biggest stumbling block to any agreement appears to be the demand by tribal leaders in South Waziristan for the army to pull out, or at least to lift the cordon that the army has set up in the area. There is also local resentment over the disruption in people's lives -- over 100,000 residents have temporarily moved out of the area -- and over the loss of civilian life. A final factor is local sympathy for the militants' anti-US cause.
The Corps Commander of Peshawar, Lt-Gen Safdar Hussain told a leading English-language newspaper that he expected the military operation to be wound up by last Saturday. Given the execution of eight Pakistani hostages, and the uncertain fate of the remaining 14, that has been impossible, and even a wind-up in the next few days appears unlikely. In addition, the US is sending a further 2,000 troops to the Afghan side of the border to hunt for Al-Qa'eda. It will definitely want the Pakistanis to remain in place on their side.
For the government, there are worrying signs that unrest is spreading further from South Waziristan. One day after the ambush of a supply convoy, militants launched a rocket attack on a military camp in the Kurram Agency (also in the federally administered tribal areas). Three soldiers were killed and four others wounded. Rocket attacks on targets in Peshawar pose a potentially bigger threat. Targeting the Judicial Complex and the headquarters of the Frontier Corps represents a dramatic escalation in fighting by the militants -- taking the battle from remote tribal areas to the provincial capital.
The rising army death toll, together with signs of the fighting spreading to other parts of the province, is causing alarm across the country. A debate in the National Assembly on Thursday condemned the operation. Maulana Fazal-ur- Rehman, one of the leaders of the Islamist Muttahida Mujlis-e- Amal (MMA), attacked the president: "Musharraf is a stooge of America and he has forced the army to kill Muslims in South Waziristan to please his masters." Qazi Hussain Ahmed, another MMA leader, warned that the whole northern region could revolt: "We have plunged into a war which has no end."
The MMA declared Friday a national day of protest against the Wana operation. Small-scale rallies were held across the country, in which speaker after speaker condemned the offensive as being carried out at America's behest, leading to local Muslims being killed and threatening the stability of the entire country. Interior Minister Faisal Saleh Hayat defended the government's actions: "It is not against Pakistanis but foreigners engaged in terrorism and those locals who gave them shelter."
Many of those who criticise the South Waziristan offensive say the government should have adopted the traditional "negotiate through the jirga " approach from day one. Even if military force had to be used, the operation should have been well planned and thought through. Sources claim the army rushed into action without the necessary preparation, because they wanted to impress US Secretary of State Colin Powell -- visiting Pakistan just as the offensive was launched. The high army body-bag toll is partially blamed on that initial haste.
When the operation started President Pervez Musharraf hinted in a CNN interview that the army had encircled a "high value target". His words led to massive speculation that Al- Qa'eda's number two man, Ayman El-Zawahri, was about to be caught. Now the Pakistanis are conceding there is little chance of finding El-Zawahri. They suggest he could have escaped the cordoned area using one of a number of underground tunnels in the region. Pakistan's Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) claimed, however, that another Al-Qa'eda leader, Tahir Yoldeshev, had been badly injured in the fighting.
Zawahri might not have been caught -- indeed, might not even have been near Wana -- but that does not mean he is happy. On Friday an audiotape, purportedly from El-Zawahri, condemned the Pakistani president and called on the people of Pakistan to overthrow and kill him. "I call on Muslims in Pakistan to get rid of their government which is working for Americans." The person on the tape also urged Pakistani soldiers to "disobey orders" and stage a coup d'etat.
The Pakistan government was quick to denounce the Al- Qa'eda tape, which analysis suggests was indeed recorded by Ayman El-Zawahri. Information Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed stressed, "Pakistan does not take orders from anybody. The entire nation is fully behind the policies of President Pervez Musharraf."
The president himself made clear his determination to "eliminate Al-Qa'eda from the region". Speaking at a college function in Abbotabad, he nonetheless was careful to underline that, "These are people who are carrying out acts of terrorism, whether they are Muslims or non-Muslims that is not the issue at all." He went on to accuse the militants in the tribal areas of masterminding terrorist acts in Pakistan, including the recent attempts on his own life. Musharraf made the commitment that "the writ of the government will be established". Like the British 200 years ago, many Pakistanis are asking whether achieving that goal is worth the price.


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