Pakistan watches as India votes, reports Iffat Idris from Islamabad The long and complex process of the Indian general elections began this week. Staged in four phases from 20 April to 10 May, with 600 million voters, 543 Lok Sabha (national assembly) seats, 175,000 electronic voting machines, and over 40 political parties, India's elections are indeed a gargantuan undertaking. The Indian electoral drama is made up of many actors and stories of varying degrees of importance. The key question is, of course, who will win? The two main contenders are Atal Behari Vajpayee's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the National Congress Party led by Sonia Gandhi, representing two very different forces in Indian politics. Congress is the grand dame of India, having ruled for decades after independence. Its eight years in opposition constitute a definite exception to the norm. Formed in 1980, the BJP, by contrast, is the "new kid on the block". The election is not, however, a tussle between the old guard and a new generation -- after all, the BJP is led by a 79-year- old. In fact, a more accurate characterisation of the election is that it constitutes an ideological clash. Congress stands for the values of independence leader Jawaharlal Nehru: secularism, socialism, self-reliance, equality and opportunities for all. By contrast, the BJP emerged as a force in Indian politics on the basis of its Hindutva philosophy, namely that India should be an officially Hindu state. Again, however, the demarcation is not as clear as it would appear. In the last two decades, Congress has progressively moved away from secularism towards Hinduism. Over recent months, the BJP has, meanwhile, moved in the opposite direction. Today's BJP still propagates Hindutva, but the meaning has been changed to promote a focus on Indian culture rather than pure Hinduism. The party manifesto no longer calls for the construction of a temple at the site of the destroyed Babri Masjid in Ayodhya. This is interesting as this was the issue on which it first gained mass support. Now the BJP is actively courting the Muslim vote, as part of its aim to becoming a truly national party. Recognising that voters are more interested in jobs and prosperity than in temples and yathras (religious pilgrimages), today's BJP pushes its economic achievements. The government is promoting a massive advertising campaign called "India Shining". Certainly, the BJP can point to significant economic achievements: booming exports, jobs in IT, biotechnology and other cutting-edge sectors, and a flourishing 300-million- strong middle class. The downside is inequality: India's massive underclass have received few benefits from the BJP government. The other factor which renders a BJP victory almost certain is the peace initiative with Pakistan, launched by Vajpayee. While the resolution of the Kashmir dispute is still a very long way off, the achievements to date are laudable: a good leaders' meeting in January followed by positive bilateral talks between Foreign Office officials, the easing of travel restrictions, cultural exchanges and, best of all, the Indian cricket tour of Pakistan. Much column space in heavyweight newspapers has been devoted to assessing the impact of victory or defeat on the cricket pitch on the electoral fortunes of the BJP. Luckily for Vajpayee, the Indian team performed very well in their recent cricket tour of Pakistan, winning both the one-day and test series. They have generated a massive feel-good factor back home, which in turn boosts the electoral prospects of the ruling party. There are other interesting issues and stories in the Indian elections: how will Rahul Gandhi -- son of Rajiv and grandson of Indira -- fare in his first election campaign? Should Congress lose, will Sonia Gandhi be able to stay on at the helm? Will Muslims overlook the BJP-condoned anti-Muslim rioting in Gujrat two years ago, and vote for the government? For neighbouring Pakistan, the electoral outcome and its impact on the current peace initiative arouses a keen interest. On the one hand, Islamabad would be reassured by the likely success of the BJP and Vajpayee, which should bode well for continuation of the peace process. It would mean the two sides can start serious discussions on issues like travel, visas, new bus routes and trade. So far, these have been in a kind of limbo while the Indian government has been tied up with its re- election campaign, and Pakistan awaited the outcome to know if any deal it struck would be permanent or thrown out by a new non-BJP Indian government. With these distractions and uncertainties removed, the peace process could move forward at full speed. Even if, by some remote chance, Congress emerges as the victor and forms the new national government, Pakistan does not have much to worry about. Traditionally the BJP has adopted a much more hard-line foreign policy than Congress. It was a BJP government, for example, that decided to test India's nuclear capability in 1998. Should Congress replace the BJP at the helm in New Delhi chances are that it would not be more belligerent than the current government. However, a victory for Congress remains very unlikely, so Pakistan will be watching to see by what margin BJP wins. Should Vajpayee end up leading a majority government, his dependence on coalition partners will diminish, and his negotiating position in bilateral talks will be strengthened. Should the results not give the BJP an outright victory, however, Vajpayee would become dependent on the approval of coalition partners. Potential partners are not likely to block peace initiatives, but they can delay the decision-making process. One more question remains for Pakistan. There is no doubt that Vajpayee has gained electoral mileage out of his peace initiative with Pakistan. With another term in office secured, there is the possibility that he could revert to the BJP's traditional belligerence. Put simply, the prime minister would no longer need votes and could therefore afford to ditch the peace process. Although this is a genuine concern, it remains a remote possibility. Vajpayee's peace initiative is driven by national interest as much as by domestic political considerations. Those national interests will remain in place, even after the election. The Indian electoral drama is likely to end with victory for the BJP and a green light for the peace process with Pakistan. From Islamabad's perspective, that would be a welcome outcome.
