With the second attack on Hamas's leadership in less than a month, the question is how far the blow will affect the political and military force of the movement. Sherine Bahaa searches for an answer It was the same old scenario playing itself out yet again, as thousands of Palestinian mourners gathered to pay tribute to yet another fallen leader. No sooner had the immediacy of the memory of the assassination of Sheikh Ahmed Yassin begun to pass, Palestinian masses gathered again in the same place to bid farewell to Yassin's successor Abdul-Aziz Al- Rantisi. The assassination of both leaders, in addition to that of senior Hamas political activist Ismail Abu Shanab last August, has removed the most charismatic and senior leaders of Hamas in Gaza. Why target Hamas now? The question has a number of answers. One explanation is that Hamas is the most popular movement in Gaza, and thus targeting the party leadership is part and parcel of Israel's systematic oppression of Palestinians in the occupied territories. Another viable answer is the fact that the movement is highly resilient in the face of all attempts to liquidate it before the promised Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. However, the main objective of these operations can be understood from their timing: Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon wants to prop up the image of the Israeli army before his promised withdrawal from Gaza, dubbed the "unilateral disengagement plan". Refaat Sid-Ahmed, professor of Islamic movements and head of the Yaffa Centre for Strategic Studies told Al-Ahram Weekly that Israelis would not like to leave Gaza to leaders like Al-Rantisi or Yassin, who would create trouble for their neighbouring state. "Their partners [in diplomacy] should be cooperative like Mohamed Dahlan and his likes. They want to clear Gaza from all resistant factions mainly Hamas," he said. Further, with the Lebanese experience engraved in the memories of Israeli society as symbolic of bitter defeat, Sharon has been very cautious this time to achieve a resounding victory in Gaza. Moreover, with his suggested referendum over the disengagement plan taking place in less than 10 days, Sharon has also had to try and improve his image within his Likud coalition government through these assassinations of figures held responsible for suicide bombings which kill dozens of Israelis, the most recent of which took place in Ashdod. However, there is a deeper dimension to the targeted assassinations that Israel carries out, so flagrantly in violation of international law. "The assassination of both Yassin and Al-Rantisi cannot be transformed into victory," said Yasser Zaetra, a Jordanian writer, in an interview with the Weekly. "The two consecutive operations on Hamas leaders will be the catalyst to strengthen the resistance programme." In a protective measure to safeguard the movement's next leader, the Hamas leadership in Damascus has refrained from announcing the name of its new leader. However, for many it was not hard to guess. The next leader will probably be one of two men: either the movement's spokesman Mahmoud Zahar, whose house was destroyed by Israeli missiles in a failed assassination attempt last year, or Ismail Haniya, one of Hamas's devoted young leaders. Hamas is considered the largest Palestinian Islamist organisations, possessing as a military as well as political wing. Established in 1987 with the first Intifada, Hamas has a wide social network of schools, hospitals and religious institutions. In short, it seeks to help Palestinians who were let down either by the Palestinian Authority (PA) or by Israel's devastating policy inside the territories. On the other hand, the military wing of the movement -- known as the Izzeddin Al-Qassam Brigades -- was responsible for most of the suicide bombings targeting Israelis. Many Palestinians used to cheer "martyrdom operations" as the best way to avenge their own losses at the hands of the occupiers. Others say these operations have the effect of slowing down the peace process, especially in that they serve to radicalise Israeli society. However, given that successive Israeli governments have consistently breached the various peace agreements made through recent years, some see no point in working on the peace process. "We are defending ourselves, our holy sites and our heritage. As such we cannot confine our role to street demonstrations, writing banners, shouting slogans, and throwing stones. We have to fight for our rights like all other occupied peoples did before," said Al-Rantisi in a recent interview with the Weekly. Hamas's influence increased significantly during the second Intifada in 2000, especially with the confinement of PA President Yasser Arafat to his muqataa in Ramallah. In the meantime, reports of the corrupt practices of prominent PA figures granted even more support to the Islamic movement, increasingly perceived as constituting the one and only viable leadership left for the Palestinians. In fact, the murder of the movement's two main leaders in such a short span of time will definitely have an impact on the supporters' morale; but this impact, many believe, will be short-lived and tactical in nature. "This [impact] should be attributed to the nature of Al-Rantisi who was more of an organisational figure rather than a political [figure]," as stated by Sid Ahmed. What is almost certain, however, is that the assassinations will not affect Hamas's strategy. "Hamas is a movement of the masses, this is what counts high. New grassroots will emerge. They will be more radical than their predecessors as a result of the political realities they survived," as Sid Ahmed explained. The funeral processions of Al-Rantisi and Yassin bore witness to just how popular the movement is. It is a huge movement with tens of thousands of supporters from all the socio-economic strata of the Palestinian society. According to Zaetra, Hamas has been on a constant rise since its creation, and the assassination of the two leaders will serve to render the movement even more popular by granting it more legitimacy on the ground. "Hamas's rise reached its peak in the period [from] 1990 to 1997 and this was during the absence of most of its significant leaders. All prominent leaders like Yassin, Al-Rantisi, Salah Shehada, Ibrahim Maqadma and Gamal Mansour were in jail at that time. In fact this is the case with ethnic and religious movements whose grassroots enlarge when their leaders are assassinated or detained," added Zaetra. He added that the presence of a leadership in exile is another aspect that helps preserve the steadfastness of the movement and adheres to the track of resistance until liberation. However, retaliation is not the sole objective of the movement. Many have argued that the delay in responding to the assassination of Yassin last month contributed to the killing of Al-Rantisi. However, as Sid Ahmed warned, retaliation should not be haphazard. "The logistics on the ground are very tough. Gaza is a small place with [the presence of] a number of PA agents, in addition to pressure exerted on Hamas both by the PA and its neighbouring Arab countries who appealed to the weakened intellectuals to issue statements that urge the movement not to retaliate -- known as the 70 Statement. But the assassination of Al-Rantisi will wipe away all those factors." Zaetra, however, warns against Palestinian in-fighting. "Integration and unity are the formidable task of Palestinian leadership," Zaetra pointed out. "This would be the best retaliation not only against the Israeli extra-judicial killings policy but also against the recent statement by US President George W Bush, who brought the Israeli-Palestinian conflict back to square one with his total disregard of all UN resolutions." Zaetra explained that the PA should pull out of the political process and that there should be a return to the pre- Oslo arrangements. "The context will [take into account the existence of] an occupying force and occupied people," he explained. In such a scenario, "the occupation forces will have to pay the price of its occupation economically. There will be no place for the separation wall and Palestinian resistance groups will be able to carry out a war of attrition from inside the villages through direct confrontation," he added.
