Rumours of a comprehensive cabinet reshuffle are on the rise. Gamal Essam El-Din looks at the prospects That the next few weeks will see some sort of a cabinet reshuffle seems to be a proposition most political pundits are in agreement on. Whether President Hosni Mubarak will limit the changes to a minister or two, or order up a comprehensive overhaul of Prime Minister Atef Ebeid's government, is the question Egyptian political and economic circles have been debating for the past three weeks. A 28 May article by Al-Ahram Chief Editor Ibrahim Nafie gave talk of a comprehensive reshuffle a major boost. Nafie wrote that Mubarak's recent trip to Romania and Russia marked the beginning of a concentrated focus on the home front. "Not only does this visit signal a new switch in Egypt's foreign policies, it also marks a new beginning of concentrated domestic reform, the dimensions of [which] will be quite clear in the next few weeks." A reshuffle was necessary, Nafie said, to amend unprecedented weaknesses in the nation's economic, social, cultural and athletic sectors. Nafie's pointed criticism of Ebeid's government was a change for the usually conservative Al-Ahram. "Egypt lags behind on both the Arab and regional levels," he wrote, "which requires [us to] focus in the coming period... on reforming our home front." Nafie's proximity to Mubarak led those who have been calling for a comprehensive cabinet reshuffle to suspect that something of the sort was indeed on the way. Perhaps, they argued, Nafie's unprecedented and open attack of Ebeid even reflected Mubarak's personal take on the government's performance. Al-Gumhouriya Chief Editor Samir Ragab followed in Nafie's footsteps with a 3 June article alleging that, "seven out of 32 cabinet ministers and nine out of 27 provincial governors will be replaced in the new reshuffle." According to Ragab, who is a major player in the National Democratic Party (NDP), the ministers marked for termination "are the ones who did not care about the people's interests and were always against freedom and democracy". Soon thereafter, Makram Mohamed Ahmed, editor of Al-Musawwar magazine, set a date -- early July, once Mubarak gets through his hectic June schedule. The expected reshuffle, Ahmed predicted, would result in the replacement of the cabinet's most important members, including the ministers of foreign affairs, defence and interior, as well as nine to 12 provincial governors -- despite the fact that Mubarak is not fond of sudden change, having "discovered that its disadvantages far outweigh its advantages". Informed sources told Al-Ahram Weekly that Prime Minister Atef Ebeid would most likely not be part of a cabinet reshuffle. According to Said El- Alfi, chairman of parliament's Economic Affairs Committee, Ebeid would survive mainly on "his government's recent ability to stabilise the pound against the dollar". As a result, El-Alfi said, "the major price increases experienced by a majority of people over the last year have been checked, and the market relatively freed from its long- time stagnation." El- Alfi also credited Ebeid's maintaining excellent relations with NDP heavyweights as essential to his survival as prime minister. That was not the case with his predecessor, Kamal El-Ganzouri. El-Alfi was critical, however, of Ebeid's inability to follow up on his success in stabilising the pound with a rapid liberalisation of the economy meant to rid it of chronic illnesses like declining competitiveness and poor public finances. "I hope the new reshuffle will lead to a crystallisation of a new strategy on economic and financial reform," El-Alfi said. The British-based The Economist magazine seemed to confirm the progress Ebeid's government had made, reporting that the country's economic and security stability index rose by two points over the last year, thus reversing a more than five year decline. The Economist also argued that Egypt's output per person in PPP (purchasing-power parity) had overtaken that of other countries with high population growth like India, Indonesia and Pakistan. Egypt, the magazine said, registered around $3,000, compared to India's $2,800. Other political insiders said Ebeid's recent success with the pound would not be enough to prevent his ouster. The prime minister's inability to resolve internal cabinet disputes and the resulting lack of teamwork would be his downfall, these sources said. "The ministers seem to be working in isolation, their performance based more on reacting to events rather than adopting their own reform initiatives," one said. The strongest bets from this camp are on Finance Minister Medhat Hassanein -- someone who could presumably sort out the country's public finances mess, the budget deficit and skyrocketing public debts -- as a replacement for Ebeid. According to Nafie, Egypt should look at Russia for the key to a successful cabinet reshuffle. With much in common, "we should devote closer examination to the turnaround achieved by Russia over the past four years," Nafie wrote. "Dynamic, pragmatic and realistic are the keywords our domestic and foreign policy architects should strive [for] in the next period." Other analysts predicted the changes would only be more of the same. The Wafd Party Chairman Noman Gomaa said any reshuffle would probably be cosmetic, thus only serving to worsen the severity of the Egypt's political and economic crisis. "People will never believe in change unless it is accompanied by a wholesale restructuring of the country's economic and political structures," Gomaa said. That kind of broad change has been at the heart of the speculation about which individual cabinet members might be gone after the expected reshuffle. The names mentioned most often include Youth Minister Alieddin Hilal, who was recently taken to task by parliament for Egypt's failure to obtain a single vote in support of its bid to host the 2010 World Cup, Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher, and Agriculture Minister Youssef Wali. Maher's recent medical problems are the most significant factor mentioned by pundits who argue that the minister's health would prevent him from successfully fulfilling Egypt's current need for an energetic foreign policy. Some press reports suggested that the much-maligned Wali has become a liability for Ebeid's government. Last March, Wali's legal consultant Ahmed Abdel- Fatah was caught red-handed while allegedly attempting to extort a LE2 million bribe from a businessman. Although Wali denied that Abdel-Fatah was still his consultant at the time, more recent revelations seemed to indicate that he was. Opposition and independent pundits said dismissing Wali might signal the start of a movement meant to rid the country of its political and economic old guard. Other names being bandied about include Supply and Internal Trade Minister Hassan Khadr and Culture Minister Farouk Hosni. Ebeid was appointed prime minister in October 1999. His government underwent a minor reshuffle in November 2001.
