Saudi Arabia has invited rival Iraqi politicians for talks to try to end the impasse in the country. Are they interested, asks Salah Hemeid In an apparent bid to flex its regional muscles, Saudi Arabia has invited the leaders of Iraq's political parties for talks in Riyadh, in order to try to help overcome the eight-month-old political gridlock that has beset the country following inconclusive elections. In a statement on Saturday, Saudi King Abdullah said that the meeting would be held under the auspices of the 22-nation Arab League and would be on the basis of the regional group's existing resolutions on Iraq. "Everyone knows you are at a crossroads and must make every effort to unite and surmount your differences, extinguishing the flames of ugly sectarianism," King Abdullah said, addressing the Iraqi politicians. "We assure you of our full readiness to help and support you in whatever resolution you agree upon in order to restore security and peace to the land of Mesopotamia." The king proposed that the gathering convene after the Eid Al-Adha holiday, the annual Muslim hajj pilgrimage, which ends around 19 November. Iraqi Sunni leaders were quick to welcome the initiative, with Iyad Allawi, head of the Sunni-backed Iraqiya List, describing the bid as "generous". However, it was met with a cool response from Iraqi Shia politicians, some of whom blasted the Saudi offer as being tantamount to foreign interference in Iraqi affairs. "This Saudi initiative is not positive, and that country does not have a role to play [in resolving the crisis in Iraq] because it has not been neutral over recent years. It has always had a negative attitude," said Sami Al-Askari, a senior figure in Iraqi caretaker Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki's State of Law Coalition. Iraq's Kurds, whose leader, Massoud Barzani, has made his own offer to hear different views over the composition of the next Iraqi government, also expressed dismay at the Saudi offer. "We want an internal Iraqi solution to the crisis," said Kurdish politician Mahmoud Osman. Iraq has been without a government since the 7 March parliamentary elections, in which the Sunni-dominated Iraqiya List won 91 seats, followed by Al-Maliki's Shia State of Law Coalition with 89. Despite intense behind-the-scenes negotiations, neither side has been able to muster the 163 seats required for a majority in Iraq's 325-member parliament. Iraq's continuing lack of a government has sparked concern among the country's neighbours, worried at the political deadlock in the country and the impact this could have on its stability in the wake of the scheduled withdrawal of all US combat troops at the end of next year. The day after the announcement of king Abdullah's initiative, Al-Qaeda-linked suicide bombers attacked a church in Baghdad, killing 52 hostages and policemen and wounding more than 100 others. The Islamic State of Iraq, the Al-Qaeda-affiliated group which claimed responsibility for the attack, also threatened the Christian Coptic Church in Egypt over the alleged abduction of women after they had converted to Islam. On Tuesday, a further series of deadly attacks struck Baghdad killing some 76 people and wounding a hundred others, highlighting instability and the serious power vaccuum that exists in the country. These attacks in Baghdad, and the threats made against the Egyptian Church, were stark reminders of the threat that instability in Iraq could spread violence into the rest of the region. Iraq's Sunni Arab neighbours and head of the Arab League Amr Moussa welcomed King Abdullah's initiative and called on Iraqi politicians to respond positively to it. Aiming to show that the offer was in good faith, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal reiterated his country's rejection of any attempt to intervene in Iraq's internal affairs during the proposed meeting in Saudi Arabia. At a press conference on Saturday, Al-Faisal said that Saudi Arabia wanted Iraqi political leaders to reach a positive outcome that would help lift the country out of its current crisis. Yet, the announcement of the Saudi initiative has nonetheless left many observers wondering why Saudi Arabia should want to enter the Iraqi minefield. It may be that Riyadh, along with other regional capitals, has grown more concerned at the impasse in the country and the impact this could have on the region's overall stability. However, a more important reason may be that Iraq's Sunni Arab neighbours are worried about Shia Iran's growing regional influence and want Al-Maliki to include the Iraqiya List in a power- sharing deal. King Abdullah's initiative has also raised questions about its chances of success where all previous initiatives have failed. One such question concerns how Saudi Arabia will be able to make itself heard by sceptical Iraqi Shia politicians, who fear that the Saudis might be trying to cosy up to Iraqi Sunnis in an attempt to undermine political gains Shias made after the collapse of the Sunni-dominated Saddam Hussein regime. To hear some critics tell it, Saudi Arabia has never been impartial in the Iraqi crisis, though these same critics agree that the country's ultimate well-being and national security are bound up with the future of Iraq. Sunni-dominated Saudi Arabia has long backed Allawi against Al-Maliki, whom it has seen as being too close to regional arch- rival Iran, which is majority Shia. If past Saudi-sponsored reconciliation efforts, such as those in Lebanon and Palestine, are anything to go by, then it is hard to imagine that the present Saudi initiative will fare any better in Iraq. A further question concerns what Saudi Arabia can expect from other neighbouring countries that also have stakes in Iraq. There has been an increasing feeling that Saudi Arabia's role as a regional powerhouse has been diminishing recently as a result of challenges from Iran and Syria, two countries which are now considered to be major actors in Iraq. By taking the present bold initiative, Saudi Arabia may be intending to claim for itself a leading role in Iraq, realising that it may well be the loser if it continues to adopt a low profile. However, by taking such a leading role without partnering or coordinating with Iran, Saudi Arabia might be thought to be leading a challenge to Tehran, pitching the two countries onto a collision course. Probably for the sake of involving Iran, King Abdullah spoke twice on the telephone with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad before making his offer, while Al-Faisal received Iran's deputy foreign minister on Monday for what seem to have been serious discussions on Iraq. Abdullah also received Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, who has recently shown signs of having no objection to Al-Maliki becoming Iraq's next prime minister. Al-Assad told the London-based Al-Hayat newspaper that most of the Saudi-Syrian talks centred on Iraq. Syria also has close economic and political ties with Iran. It shares a long border with Iraq, and it has hosted members of Iraqi opposition groups, especially Baathists. All of these things could be used as tools to undermine Saudi efforts, should Riyadh attempt to snub Damascus. There is also the question of whether Saudi Arabia has a plan to resolve the Iraqi conflict, or whether it is relying on the king's good-will or chequebook diplomacy. Al-Faisal said that the Saudi government wanted to lock the Iraqi politicians indoors until white smoke started to billow. This seems to indicate that Riyadh has no clear strategy to resolve the complex crisis. The real challenge for Riyadh will be how to convince the Iraqi leaders to reach an agreement on a genuine settlement that ensures a final and definitive resolution of the Iraqi conflict, rather than simply making them sit together for another game of tit-for-tat. This is not to suggest that Saudi Arabia is toothless or naive. The kingdom has too many vital stakes at play in Iraq, and the message behind King Abdullah's offer is loud and clear: there are great risks involved if Saudi Arabia is sidestepped or its interests in Iraq ignored.
