Israel's deadly raid against Hamas in Gaza coincided with a high-level Egyptian peace-making mission to Ramallah. Will the Egyptian initiative survive the renewed circle of bloodshed? Rasha Saad reports Israel raided a Hamas training camp in Gaza on Tuesday, killing 14 and wounding at least 50, hours after Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit and Intelligence chief Omar Suleiman met with Palestinian President Yasser Arafat to discuss Cairo's plans to help ensure security in the Gaza strip after Israel's pullout. The timing of the operation is seen as an embarrassment to Cairo, further complicating its role in reviving the Israeli- Palestinian peace process. Egypt denounced the Israeli operation, with Abul-Gheit describing it as "exceeding all limits. This act," he said, "casts doubts over the real intentions of the Israeli government, and if it really seeks to get out of the circle of violence, or is trying to deepen it at a time when Egypt is exerting serious efforts to revive the peace process and achieve security and stability in the region." Abul-Gheit and Suleiman's visit had initially been planned for last Wednesday, but was postponed following a double suicide bombing in Beersheba in Israel on Tuesday, for which Hamas claimed responsibility. "Ironically, both the Beersheba operation and the bombing of the Hamas training camp seem to be an implied agreement between the Palestinians and the Israelis, despite the hostility to each other, to subvert the Egyptian visit and role," said political analyst Samir Ghattas, the director of the Maqdis Centre for Political Studies. To make matters even more volatile, a top Israeli official also timed a reiterated threat to exile Arafat to coincide with the Egyptian visit. On Monday, Israeli Defence Minister Shaul Mofaz warned that, "we will banish [Arafat] at the opportune moment and by the method that suits us." Some interpreted the Israeli operation and Mofaz's statements as an indirect Israeli message to Cairo that Tel Aviv is not satisfied with the pace of Egyptian efforts to lay the groundwork among the Palestinians for an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Several recent articles in the Israeli press have charged that Egypt was watering down its involvement in the security arrangements after the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Egypt has adopted such an attitude, they claim, because of calculations that Israel might delay its withdrawal from Gaza. The fact that impending American presidential elections might mean that Washington would be too busy to appreciate Cairo's efforts was also a factor, these articles claim. On Tuesday, Al-Hayat newspaper took the speculation one step further, by boldly claiming that Israel had backed off from its agreements with Cairo concerning the Egyptian security role. The London-based newspaper quoted unidentified sources as saying that during their Monday meeting both Abul- Gheit and Suleiman briefed Arafat that Tel Aviv had reneged on the agreements concerning the Egyptian security role in Gaza after an Israeli pull out, including the Egyptian deployment of border guards along the Egyptian-Gaza borders. According to these reports, Israeli armed forces will maintain security control over the borders. The reports also speculated that talks between both sides on arrangements in the Philadelphia corridor (along Egypt's borders with Gaza) were no longer on the Israeli agenda. Mohamed Bassiouni, former Egyptian ambassador to Israel, denied this was the case. Bassiouni believes that dialogue with both the Palestinian and Israeli sides is ongoing. He cited the announcement that Abul-Gheit and Suleiman would be going to Israel during the coming week. "I would doubt the validity of such reports unless they are confirmed by an official source of from one of the parties concerned." A Palestinian diplomatic source in Cairo, however, said he was not surprised by Al- Hayat's claims. He said the Palestinians had warned the Egyptians that the Israelis were, in fact, reluctant to implement their agreements with Cairo on the proposed Gaza pullout. At the same time, the source said, the Israelis demand that Egypt maintain its role in the Gaza negotiations, even if that role doesn't seem to lead anywhere in the near future. What went wrong, he said, was that the Egyptians put equal pressure on both the Israelis and the Palestinians, despite the belief on the Palestinian side that the pressure should have been put only on Israel, while the Palestinians' more dire situation should have been accommodated. Ghattas interpreted the reports -- if true -- as being a temporary reaction that serves Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon well as he deals with the crisis catalysed by internal opposition to his disengagement plan. "Sharon has gone beyond the point of no return with his disengagement plan. He has tied his political future to this plan, and he will go for it." Ghattas said the reports reflected an attempt by Sharon to portray himself as having the upper hand, that Israel is the party in control. By doing so, he improves his image and status internally. Other observers do not even see the Israeli attitude as being a threat to the Egyptian initiative. The real stumbling block, they say, lies with the Palestinians themselves, since they lack a unified leadership. According to Egyptian political analyst Adel Suleiman, the Egyptian initiative is as balanced, rational and pragmatic as can be. The main problem, he contends, is that there is no Palestinian consensus or unified leadership that Cairo can address. "Egypt does not have a problem dealing with the US or Israel, but it definitely has a problem when it deals with the Palestinians, since it finds itself dealing with a dozen parties." The Egyptian initiative has emphasised the closing of Palestinian ranks and urged Palestinian unity. In this context, Cairo has invited Palestinian factions to a third round of talks in two weeks' time. The two previous rounds have reportedly failed to achieve the necessary consensus -- for which Bassiouni lays the blame on the Palestinians. He thinks the inter-Palestinian dialogue should begin with the Palestinian Authority reaching a consensus with all the Palestinian factions. "Only when this dialogue succeeds and the Palestinians reach a common national agenda, will the Cairo dialogue be fruitful." But while Abul-Gheit said the proposed meeting would take place in two weeks time, the Palestinian diplomatic source said no definite date had yet been set. Observers believe that the Palestinian leadership has to make its mind up fast, close its ranks and understand that -- with the emergence of several other regional threats -- the Palestinian issue is no longer priority number one for several Arab countries. "The regional stance towards the Palestinian issue has witnessed major shifts, with most countries in the region struggling with their own internal problems and challenges, leaving little room for traditional sympathy with the Palestinians," Suleiman said. That shift in Arab priorities, along with the lack of Arab moral and financial support, the Palestinian diplomat said, are the real threats to the Palestinian cause.
