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Tortuous campaign
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 07 - 10 - 2004

Taliban targets presidential hopefuls in Afghanistan's upcoming elections, reports Peter Willems from Kabul
The United States' decision to send more troops to Afghanistan in time for presidential elections on 9 October was greeted with elation by the administration of Afghan President Hamid Karzai. But US troops will have their hands full trying to establish stability in the run-up to the elections.
In September, Karzai barely escaped an assassination attempt the first time he ventured outside Kabul during his elections campaign. His trip to the southeastern town of Gardez was aborted when a missile missed the US military helicopter in which he was travelling.
Late last month, a bomb attack on a Kabul security firm providing protection for Karzai killed 10 people.
"We welcome US troops because they will help us with the elections, but security has gotten worse and we expect violence to increase," an Afghan government official told Al-Ahram Weekly.
The remnant of the Taliban regime, which was ousted in late 2001, has regained strength and is attacking 18,000 US forces in the south. This year terrorist attacks have moved into northern areas, while clashes continue in the south. Up to 40 aid workers and a dozen election workers were killed over the last year.
It is no secret that the Taliban are attempting to derail the upcoming elections. Soon after the assassination attempt on Karzai, the Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack and announced they were targeting all of the 18 candidates running for president.
"All presidential candidates have now become top targets because they are running in a US- sponsored election," said Abdul-Latif Hakimi, a Taliban spokesman.
Although US forces have been in Afghanistan for nearly three years, the mastermind of the Al- Qaeda network Osama bin Laden and his second- in-command Ayman Al-Zawahri are still on the loose. US army officials now believe that the two Al-Qaeda leaders are behind some of the recent attacks.
"What we see are their techniques and their tactics," said Major General Eric Olson, Operational Commander of US-led forces in Afghanistan. "I think it is reasonable to assume that the senior leaders are involved in directing those operations."
Olson added that the US has not even come close to eliminating the insurgency. Although NATO agreed in October 2003 to send more forces to help bring security to areas outside the Afghanistan government's control, member countries have hesitated to commit troops. NATO has plans to send 1,500 soldiers to boost the 6,500 International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) for the elections in the next few weeks. But NATO has yet to find countries willing to send troops into politically unstable areas, such as the western province of Herat.
Some analysts believe that Afghanistan is not prepared for the elections. A recent report from the Afghanistan Evaluation and Research Unit said that the winning candidate may face a crisis of legitimacy because of the lack of international monitoring and a well-trained electoral staff. The report argues that without proper supervision, there will be many flaws, like militia commanders intimidating voters in addition to fraud and vote-rigging.
Early this month, one of the best known organisations monitoring elections, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation based in Vienna, decided not to send a monitoring team because of the lack of security.
A number of presidential candidates are now calling for the elections to be postponed, arguing that they are not able to campaign for the presidency in an unstable environment.
But some analysts say that even though the election process is imperfect and violence is on the rise, the Afghan people are eager to vote. Around 10.5 million have registered in the first elections held in Afghanistan in over three decades. Women make up over 40 per cent of registered voters.
"People are looking at the elections with hope, doubt and fear," Abdul-Latif Rahmani, professor of political science at Kabul University told the Weekly. "The number of people who registered are more than expected. This indicates that people are willing to go to the polls no matter what."


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