Rehab Saad examines the possible impact of the Taba bombings on Egypt's tourism industry "I'll never come back to Egypt," was the common refrain made by Israeli tourists who witnessed last week's Taba attack. Although most Egyptians were aware of the existence of Israeli tourists, especially in Sinai, most were stunned by the large number that actually do visit Egypt. As a matter of fact, Israel is listed among the top 10 markets exporting tourists to Egypt. Until 1999, it was even ranked among the top five. During the week-long Jewish holiday of Sukkot, an estimated 30,000 Israelis had arrived in Egypt, of whom 15,000 were in Sinai on the night of the Taba, Tarabeen and Ras Shitan blasts. The Taba Hilton's 434 rooms had recorded a 95 per cent occupancy rate. There were between 800 and 900 people in the hotel at the time of the attack, the vast majority Israelis. The Taba Hilton is one of Israeli travellers' favourite spots; it even predates the handover of Taba to Egypt, and used to be run by Sonesta. The hotel -- owned by a group of Egyptian investors -- also frequently hosted Palestinian- Israeli peace negotiations. According to official figures, 300,000 Israelis have taken holidays in Sinai this summer, with some estimates suggesting Israeli tourists pump up to $150 million annually into Egypt's economy. But the potential fall-out of the attack on Egypt's tourist industry, the country's main earner of foreign currency, remains unclear, with most industry insiders advising caution before jumping to conclusions. Hoteliers in the South Sinai resort of Sharm El-Sheikh have reported only a minimal impact on occupancy rates that continue to hover around their high-season average of 70-80 per cent, while operators of Nile cruises between Luxor and Aswan have yet to report any cancellations. A majority within the industry seems to concur with Minister of Tourism Ahmed El-Maghrabi who, in statements following the attack on the Taba Hilton said that it did not appear to be targeting Egyptian tourism. "It is very different from past terrorist incidents that have occurred at other Egyptian destinations. Just look at the timing and look at the choice of place." Many agree with El-Maghrabi's implication that the attack was a response to Israel's continuing assault against Gaza, and while they predict a downturn in tourism in Sinai, and particularly in Taba and Nuweiba, its impact elsewhere remains unclear. The situation, said a representative of Travel Plus travel agency, which deals mainly with the Israeli market, would only become clear in two or three weeks. Speaking on condition of anonymity, he said that his company had had cancellations from Israeli and British holidaymakers but that was "natural and expected". After Israelis, Britons constitute the second biggest market in Taba. In general, the German market tops the list of countries exporting tourists to Egypt, followed by Italy, France, UK, Russia, the Benelux and Israel. "We are not expecting any Jewish Israelis in the coming few months, but we have hopes for the Arab Israeli market," he said. Sally Khattab, public relations manager of Hyatt hotels in Egypt, argued that while "there will definitely be a negative impact, we cannot speculate how negative the impact will be, or how long it will last." Meanwhile, Hyatt Taba Heights Resort, which is expecting a Belgian charter flight to Taba in mid-October, had received confirmation from the Belgian company that they will still be coming. "Their tour takes in Luxor, Hurghada and Taba," said Terry Bertain, sales manager at the resort. He added that the British market had been slightly affected, but that they had not "received many cancellations". "Two charter flights arrived yesterday from Britain in a normal operation. Everything is quiet and calm but we still have to wait and see the feedback by the end of the week," he said. "There have been no strong effects yet," said Adel Zaki of ITTA Tours. "We are still expecting several groups from France in November and on Sunday we received a charter flight from Switzerland to Sharm El-Sheikh and only 20 travellers out of 170 had cancelled," he said. But he warned that while cancellations are unlikely to be a major problem, the extent of the impact will only become apparent when figures are available for new bookings. Whatever the effects in Sinai, operators outside the peninsula remain confident. "Nile cruise trips are not affected, cultural tourism in general (in Cairo, Luxor and Aswan) is going well. There are no cancellations so far," said Munir Wissa of Escapade Travel. Nor, according to several travel agents, have safari trips been affected. The Taba bombings are the first major terrorist attack in Egypt since 1997, when Islamist militants killed 58 foreign tourists and six Egyptians in front of the Hatshepsut Temple in Luxor. Then the tourism industry was hit hard. But nobody is making comparisons with the earlier incident. "No, no, there are no similarities," stressed Wissa. "The [Taba and Nuweiba attacks] are a political action against a particular nationality and this is how it is perceived worldwide whereas the Luxor massacre was a terrorist attack directed against travellers to Egypt in general." Yet given the sheer number of Israelis visiting Sinai, any significant drop in their numbers is bound to affect the future shape of tourism on the peninsula. Mövenpick Hotels and Resorts, which had planned to open a 434-room resort in an area adjacent to the Taba Hilton in early 2005, has now put its plans on hold. It is yet to be decided whether the plan will be executed. It is just one of 36 tourist projects currently under construction in the Taba area which between them represent an investment of LE6 billion. Following a series of setbacks -- including mass cancellations following 9/11 and then the US invasion of Iraq -- Egypt's tourism industry was looking forward to a record year. In 2003 revenues from tourism reached $4.4 billion, a figure that was expected to rise to $5 billion by the end of 2004. Egypt received 6,104,190 tourists between January and September 2004 compared to 4,185,785 for the same period last year. The terrorist attacks "will affect the Sinai for sure. It will affect the Sinai for the next year," said Sherif El-Ghamrawi, owner of Basata Camp in the area between Nuweiba and Taba, "I feel really sorry -- most of the people in the area depend on the Israeli market," he said. In the period from January to September, Egypt received 358,749 Israelis compared to 236,858 for the same period last year, an increase of 51.5 per cent. Israelis spent 177,885 tourist nights in September 2004 and account for almost 90 per cent of the occupancy rate in the majority of one- and two-star hotels between Taba and Nuweiba. Several travel warnings were issued following the Sinai blasts. Israel has told its citizens to leave Egypt, while the US and Germany have warned their nationals against travelling to the Sinai Peninsula, particularly around Taba and Nuweiba. A spokesman for the British travel agents Discover Egypt said that while he expected Taba bookings to be affected in the short-term, the resort was too far away from the country's major destinations to impact on general bookings to Egypt. Sean Tipton, of the Association of British Travel Agents (ABTA), concurred. He believes there will be little long-term impact. "We know that, especially in the current environment, nowhere is 100 per cent safe, but we also know that the chances of something happening are very small," he said, citing the 25 per cent increase in the number of UK bookings made for Madrid in the week following the bomb blast there.
