Ibrahim Al-Marashi* highlights the main challenges facing the forthcoming Iraqi elections In the months leading up to the Iraqi election scheduled to be held on 31 January, 2005 the nation has witnessed the mobilisation of Iraq's Shia, Kurds and Sunnis, as well as parties that have advocated a non-sectarian and non-ethnic platform. A debate has ensued in the country over whether to postpone the elections. For many Iraqis who have only experienced life under the Baath, the elections represent a new milestone in the nation's political development. The elections are based on the list system, similar to that used in Lebanon, where the legislators running in the elections will be chosen from lists of candidates. The Iraqi candidates on these lists are to be elected to a 275-member transitional National Assembly that will later select the prime minister, president, two deputy presidents and other ministers. The tasks of the new assembly include drafting a permanent Iraqi constitution that will then be put to a public referendum for approval. The constitution will be ratified if approved by the majority of voters in Iraq in October 2005. The Shia parties have been the strongest advocates that the elections be held on schedule. Grand Ayatollah Al-Sistani, the highly revered Shia authority has used his religious authority to bestow legitimacy on the Iraqi electoral process. In his fatwas (religious rulings) Al-Sistani emphasises that he wants the elections to be held on time, and has called upon all Iraqis, not just the Shia to vote, as well as calling for non-Muslims, such as the Iraqi Christians to take an active part in the process. Sistani's faction has also stressed that successful elections will be the only way to expel the occupation. The Turkmens and Kurds, on the other hand, have been engaged in a heated battle for the fate of the oil-rich town of Kirkuk. The Kurds have declared that they would like to see Kirkuk as the capital of an autonomous state in the north, while the Turkmen have argued that they form the city's majority and thus it should remain free of Kurdish control. Some Kurdish parties have asked for postponing the elections although they had earlier agreed to the January date. They have justified this call because the issue of Kirkuk had not been resolved. For example a politician in the Turkmen Front, argued that the Kurdish parties have manipulated voter registration rolls to include Kurdish families that have recently arrived in Kirkuk to bolster their numbers in the upcoming elections. There were more than 70 lists submitted by 15 December, the deadline for the registration period for all Iraqi political entities. Nine of the lists were multi-party coalitions, while 66 were lists presented by single Iraqi parties. The "Unified Iraqi Alliance" List, which submitted 228 candidates, represented 16 Iraqi political groups, including the dominant Shia factions in Iraq. Abdul-Aziz Al-Hakim, leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), heads the list, followed by Ibrahim Al-Jafari, head of Al-Daawa Party. Both Kurdish parties decided to run together on what has been termed the Kurdish list. Both the Iraqi interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi and Iraqi President Ghazi Al-Yawar have submitted their own lists of candidates. Allawi and his party, the Iraqi National Accord (INC) have submitted a 240- candidate coalition, and Al-Yawar is running on an 80-person slate representing the Iraqi Grouping. The worsening security situation in Iraq remains the greatest obstacle to holding nationwide elections. The deplorable security situation was graphically demonstrated in November 2004 when Iraqi elections officials were dragged out of their car in broad daylight and executed by Iraqi insurgents on a busy Baghdad street. Ansar Al-Sunna Army has threatened to strike the polling centres and potential candidates running in the elections. They have warned all Iraqis to avoid polling centres, otherwise they will be targeted. There are doubts that there are enough Iraqi forces to maintain security during the election, as well as sufficient international monitors to review the process. Allawi stated that 400,000 police officers would be needed to provide security for the 9,000 electoral centres throughout Iraq. The number of Iraqi security forces fall well behind that number. Despite the threat of violence, other Iraqis are insisting that the elections proceed on schedule. Shia proponents of the elections will argue that while the process may be marred by violence, the process in the long term could end terrorism in Iraq. A newly-elected government, it was argued, would have the authority to end the presence of US troops on Iraqi soil, thus eliminating the justifications for violence carried out by insurgents opposed to the occupation. Another obstacle to holding elections is that there has not been enough time for a proper democratic culture to take hold in Iraq. For example, there are virtually no Iraqi political party that has developed a strong grassroots base or that transcended ethnic or sectarian differences. The parties in Iraq are either remnants of the opposition groups exiled during Saddam Hussein era or based only on sectarian or ethnic affiliation. Iraqis, taking part in the electoral process, have criticised the electoral authorities for failing to sufficiently educate the Iraqis about the election process. Some Iraqis are convinced that the US is working behind the scenes to manipulate the elections to their advantage. One Iraqi writer emphasised that US interference in the elections is likely: "This problem and apprehension are almost reasonable since the United States, and the West in general, work solely for their own interests, disregarding other peoples' interests." Muqtada Al-Sadr, the young Shia cleric has also expressed his distrust of US motives for supporting the elections. "Is there anyone who asks: If I participate in the elections, will the occupiers leave my country? Won't they rig the elections, and by doing so deny power to the pious?" All they care for is to empower a puppet who gives his consent to the occupiers to stay in our country and gain the legitimacy rejected by the United Nations and others," Al-Sadr said. The prospects for elections in Iraq do not bode well for its future. The elections in Iraq represent the dilemma that the nation faces at the present. The current interim government is dominated by Arab Shias and Kurds who have maintained an ambivalent relationship with the US authorities in Iraq, while the Arab Sunnis for the most part have failed to engage in the post-Saddam administration. The upcoming elections will further institutionalise the status quo, while increase calls from Iraqi quarters for the US to withdraw once an elected Iraqi government is in place. Those Sunnis who feel they have been excluded from the political process in post-Saddam Iraq for the most part have used violence to make their protests heard. If the 2005 elections will exclude Iraq's Sunnis again, they would most likely continue to use violence to address their grievances. However, if the elections are postponed, then many of the Shia could resort to violence as they have hinted in the past. * The writer is a fellow at Sabanci University in Istanbul, Turkey.
