Ibrahim Al-Marashi* travelled northern Iraq to assess its mood since attention shifted to Baghdad and the south Violent clashes in the southern cities of Falluja and Najaf have diverted attention from the situation in the north of Iraq. Ignoring the north further may have disastrous consequences for US-led occupation authorities. Southern Iraq was largely sidelined until Moqtada Al-Sadr stepped into the breach and launched his offensive against occupation forces. The same thing may well happen elsewhere soon. I travelled to my native Iraq in the last weeks of March, my second visit since the end of the war. I entered the country from Turkey, where a line of empty oil trucks more than two miles long queued up on the Turkish side of the border. On entering, a sign welcomed us to the "Kurdistan of Iraq", a clear message to Iraq's northerly neighbour that the Kurds are not willing to give up the relative autonomy they have enjoyed since their "safe haven" was established after the 1991 Gulf war. A portrait of Masoud Barzani, leader of the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP), hangs on the wall at the border post, a reminder that we are not just entering Iraq, but Barzani's domain as well. The Kurdish flag -- red, green and white stripes with a sun in the centre -- is flying alongside the yellow KDP flag. The Iraqi flag is conspicuously absent. Entering the town of Dohuk, 45 minutes from the Turkish border, I was greeted by another sign: "God bless the coalition." Dohuk is the only town in Iraq where American soldiers can walk around unarmed. In fact, they come here for rest and relaxation from other parts of Iraq. Coalition troops may be welcome for now, but how long will this situation last? The declaration "Thank God for our new constitution" greets visitors to Dohuk. The Kurds are content with the interim constitution passed in March 2004 because they won major concessions. Not only does it recognise Kurdish as Iraq's second language, the interim constitution also states that the permanent charter to be voted on in 2005 may be rejected if not approved by a majority of voters in three of Iraq's 18 provinces. The Kurds control three provinces in the north of Iraq, which gives a veto to an ethnic community that forms about 15 per cent of the population. The Kurds in Dohuk are generally resentful of one man, Iraq's most prominent religious figure Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani. As a Shia, not only does he have little influence among the Sunni Kurds, but it was Al-Sistani who argued that the interim constitution, known as the Transitional Law was written by an unelected council under the occupation and thus does not reflect the views of the majority of the Iraqi people but rather that of the US-appointed Interim Governing Council. There is a sense that a new battle line has been drawn between Iraq's Shia and Kurdish leaders, whereas in the past the conflict was with the Kurds and the Sunni-dominated Baathist government. In the eyes of the Kurds, the UN Security Council resolution passed on 8 June approving transfer of sovereignty to the Iraqis is a demonstration of America's Shia sympathies, perhaps marking the first point of tension between the Kurds and the US. The Kurds feel that the US has reneged on its promise to respect Kurdish rights, including the right to autonomy, which they have enjoyed since 1991. Subsequently, Kurds have threatened to not take part in the post-30 June interim government and to boycott national elections in January 2005. The interim government is dangerously similar to the government in Lebanon where government positions are awarded on the basis of a person's religion or sect. The most powerful post of the current Iraqi interim government, that of prime minister, is reserved for a Shia figure, Iyad Allawi; the post of president is reserved for a Sunni Muslim, Ghazi Al-Yawar. The Kurds control five of the 26 ministries, one of the two deputy president posts and the office of deputy prime minister. By controlling 15 of the 26 ministries and occupying the post of prime minister, argue the Kurds, the Shia will dominate the new government. The Lebanese civil war was a result of conflict over the division of government posts. The same thing could happen in Iraq. Will the Kurds rebel if their demands are not met? The US has provided arms to the Kurds on the condition they are returned once the conflict has ended. However, this situation is reminiscent of the situation in Afghanistan where the US provided the Afghan mujahadin with weapons. They were never returned. Worse still, down the line they were turned against the country that gave them. There are currently 40,000 Kurdish armed militiamen -- the only unified armed force in Iraq. Some Kurdish leaders made veiled threats to secede from Iraq after the passage of the UN resolution. The Kurds are committed to a united Iraq, but only for the time being. From Dohuk I travelled to a town called Koya, where I was greeted by a portrait of Jalal Talabani, leader of the Patriotic Unionist Party (PUK), reminding me that I was now on his territory. In this part of Iraqi Kurdistan the Kurdish flag flies alongside the Iraqi flag, perhaps an indication of the PUK's "Iraqiness". Along the road to Sulaymaniyya, where the regional headquarters of the PUK are located, I could not help but notice the number of medical centres on the road specialising in prosthetic limbs, a reminder of the number of Kurdish victims maimed by mines planted by Saddam Hussein's regime in the north of the country. The relative prosperity of the city is evident upon entering Sulaymaniyya; there are plenty of brand new shiny BMWs and Mercedes driving along the wide tree-lined avenues. The north of Iraq has had a twelve-year head start in rebuilding their region, unlike the south that suffered under a decade of sanctions. The youth of Sulaymaniyya hang out at the local "MaDonal" restaurant sporting necklaces in the shape of Kurdistan. It is interesting to note that many of these young people do not speak Arabic, perhaps an indication that a new generation of Kurdish Iraqis has little in common with their compatriots in the south. From Sulaymaniyya I drove to Kirkuk, a city divided among ethnic Kurds, Arabs and Turkoman, Sunnis, Shia and Christians. Some call it the IraqiJerusalem, and indeed Kirkuk has witnessed almost daily armed clashes. The Turkoman minority of Iraq, closely allied with Turkey and the Arabs residing in Kirkuk, accuse the US of turning a blind eye to what they term a Kurdish-led ethnic "ethnic cleansing" of the city. If the current trend continues, armed and bloody ethnic war could engulf the north of Iraq. Such a clash occurred between the US, Kurds, Turkey and Turkoman in July 2003. Upon entering Kirkuk, I drove by a Turkoman social and cultural club ringed by armed guards. Why does a social club need so much protection? According to one of the guards, American forces surrounded the premises in July and seized Turkish soldiers there who were accused by the Kurds of attempting to assassinate the mayor of Kirkuk. Arabs also form part of Kirkuk's population, a legacy to Saddam Hussein's attempts to "Arabise" the city. Many of the Shia here fly green and black flags emblazoned with the name of Imams Ali and Hussein, the fourth caliph and his son who are revered figures of all Muslims but especially Shia Muslims. Among those Shia residents, one can also find picture of Moqtada Al-Sadr, the young firebrand cleric whose anti-American message resonates widely. Kirkuk sits on one of the largest oil fields in the Middle East, but looking at the pitiful state of the city, one would never guess the enormous wealth lying below the ground. The Americans promised to secure the oil fields and have established a military base and airfield literally right beside them. In return, the base comes under mortar attack on a daily basis. Any past power-sharing agreement between the Kurds and the central authority in Baghdad has failed due to the issue of reallocation of Kirkuk oil revenues to the north of Iraq. Based on this past precedent, it seems likely that any agreement between the Kurds and a post-Saddam government will hinge on the issue of Kirkuk. As I left Kirkuk on the road to Tikrit in the south, I could not help but feel pessimistic over the fate of this city, and the situation in the north in general. I wondered if this region would continue to enjoy a superficial peace and ignore the tensions emerging from within. * The writer is an American researcher of Iraqi origin
