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Lebanese countdown
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 27 - 01 - 2005

With four months left until the parliamentary elections in Lebanon, internal dissent and international pressure to disengage the Syrian-Lebanese front are running high. Mohalhel Fakih reports from Beirut
The Lebanese and Syrian governments are publicly sparring with the United States and France over a UN resolution demanding that Syria ends its military presence and political involvement in Lebanon. The pro-Syrian government in Beirut is also dealing with internal dissent from a growing opposition that is demanding a fair electoral law to be passed before parliamentary elections next May.
"These parliamentary elections, which will be held in the spring, should be conducted by Lebanese, for Lebanese, and not by Syrians or anyone else," US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage told Al-Arabiyah satellite TV station. He made this clear by telling Syrian leaders on a recent visit to Damascus that "UN Security Council Resolution 1559 makes it very clear of what is expected of Syria."
Syrian officials had sought to downplay Armitage's warning, while the government in Beirut reacted angrily to a statement by American Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman who said the resolution should be carried out "with a peaceful and orderly withdrawal of Syria's military and intelligence forces from Lebanon."
"This interference in our internal affairs is shameful and unacceptable," Prime Minister Omar Karami said. Without naming either Feltman or the French Ambassador Bernard Emie, whose countries co-sponsored Resolution 1559, Karami said, "our national dignity is violated each time we receive one of these ambassadors."
This kind of talk has become the daily political diet in Lebanon. Resolution 1559, which also calls for disarming Hizbullah and Palestinian factions present in the country, coupled with concerns over the size of voting districts in an electoral law, now dominate every aspect of public life.
"Lebanon is not in a normal state. It is turning itself into a system that is not integrated with the international community and is closer to countries that had in the past been in confrontation with the international community such as Libya and Iraq," Fares Khashan, a seasoned political analyst, told Al-Ahram Weekly.
State officials are increasingly involved in this public drama. The opposition, which for the first time since the end of the 1975-1990 civil war includes representatives from all faiths, is also pressing for "national sovereignty and balanced ties with Syria."
"It is not a battle of names but one of an existing and a very large sweeping, popular wave. Election results, regardless of the electoral law, will confirm that the overwhelming majority of the Lebanese want sovereignty and free national will," said Christian Maronite MP Boutros Harb, of the Qornet Shehwan opposition bloc. He spoke to a gathering in North Lebanon, clarifying that the opposition does not seek "enmity with Syria" but is instead demanding balanced ties with Damascus.
Former warring factions during the civil war are today holding back-to-back meetings to coordinate a joint action plan before the crucial legislative elections. The so-called Bristol Gathering opposition congress is spearheaded by Progressive Socialist Party chief MP Walid Jumblatt, who was once Syria's ally, but fell out with Damascus after demanding its troops to leave Lebanon. He accused Syrian intelligence services and their Lebanese counterpart of gross constitutional violations and of interference in every aspect of public life. He further accused intelligence services of masterminding an attack on his top ally, former minister MP Marwan Hamadeh. His bodyguard was killed, but Hamadeh survived a car bombing that took place days after resigning from the previous government in protest against a constitutional amendment that allowed President Lahoud to remain in office.
"We are working for a free and independent Lebanon. At the same time we are calling for correct and healthy ties with Syria because we are not its enemies," Druze leader Jumblatt told a rally. "They threaten us with a civil war, why will there be war?" questioned the emboldened opposition leader.
State officials have maintained that a Syrian pullout from Lebanon would destabilise the country, triggering a barrage of criticism from the opposition. But in response to an editorial by general manager of An-Nahar daily, Gebran Tueini, in which he criticised the president's handling of international pressure to implement Resolution 1559, Lahoud said the UN decision "served Israeli interests and has pushed Lebanon to the brink of civil war."
Lebanon and Syria have rejected an implementation of the resolution despite both internal and external pressure. Lahoud said the resolution hides an Israeli demand to resettle Palestinian refugees in Lebanon. Lebanese of all sects and factions categorically reject the naturalisation of refugees into their complex and delicately balanced sectarian society. Beirut also wants other UN resolutions related to the Arab-Israeli conflict to be implemented first.
"US support for UN Security Council Resolution 1559 is entirely separated from the Palestinian cause," Ambassador Feltman told reporters, as an immediate response to Lahoud. Furthermore, Elizabeth Dibble, from the State Department Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, told a Beirut correspondent in the US that "Washington is not waiting for peace in the Middle East" to apply Resolution 1559, which Prime Minister Karami had described as a plan "of sedition".
The opposition does not completely embrace Resolution 1559, because Jumblatt and his allies have been careful not to back foreign pressure which calls for the disarmament of Hizbullah. However, former army commander General Michel Aoun, in his Paris exile, wants the opposition to adopt Resolution 1559 before he joins their ranks in anticipation of parliamentary elections. There are unconfirmed reports that Aoun, who led a so-called war of liberation against Syria that led to his exile towards the end of the civil war, will soon meet Jumblatt in Paris to coordinate electoral activities.
Aoun has also been in contact with Damascus, despite dubbing Syria's troops presence as "occupation". There is a growing movement, supported by some officials in the country, to allow Aoun's return to Beirut and to free the imprisoned Samir Geagea, the Christian Maronite opposition leader and former chief of the Lebanese Forces militia.
Former Prime Minister Rafiq Al-Hariri is another political heavyweight whose next move has yet to be revealed. On Monday, Al- Hariri was reported in the press to have complained of being on the receiving end of a government decision to cancel plans for constructing his brainchild convention centre. He recently stated that the government was strongly pushing him towards the opposition side.
And Hizbullah Secretary-General Sayid Hassan Nasrallah, who had largely shielded himself from the prevailing political mudslinging, served a stern warning to the opposition. He called for lowering the voting age to 18, which would in effect, tip Lebanon's sectarian balance towards Shia voters who make up the youngest and fastest growing faction of Lebanese society.
"Through international political and psychological pressure as well as threats, Resolution 1559 sets out to hand Israel what it has been powerless to achieve through its army," said Nasrallah, whose Muslim Shia group is a target of the UN resolution. He further stressed that "Lebanon needs the resistance as well as the two Lebanese and Syrian armies." Nasrallah also denied any hidden messages behind a recent attack by his fighters on an Israeli post in the occupied Shebaa Farms and a subsequent Israeli raid on South Lebanon that killed three people, including a French UN peace-keeper.
"It is a favour to the Syrians who have helped Hizbullah," political analyst, Khashan commented to the Weekly, in reaction to Nasrallah's statements. He said the Hizbullah leader has previously defended the presence of Syria in Lebanon, which had helped the group during Israel's occupation which ended in 1990. But Khashan believed that Nasrallah is actually a uniting force in Lebanese politics and his discourse on internal matters is different than his regional stance.
"There is no danger at all that this sectarian rhetoric will degenerate into a new civil war," political analyst, Khashan said. He told the Weekly, that the "main components" of political life in the country, including the Maronite Church, Hizbullah, former premier Al-Hariri and Druze leader Jumblatt, actually favour dialogue and are trying to "build bridges" in the country.


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