Were the Iraqi elections a solution or a quandary? Mohamed El-Anwar from Baghdad assesses the post-elections results Apart from one or two minor surprises, the Iraqi National Assembly elections went more or less as expected, bringing the country to the threshold of a new albeit uncertain era. The elections have highlighted the new scheme of things in the country, dashing a few claims to popularity and putting an end to many illusions of grandeur. The elections also produced one unexpected, even ironic, outcome: Iraq may have changed regimes, but it still has one strong man. Many Sunni and other disenchanted forces stayed away from the elections, and yet it is now easier than ever before to grasp how the forces are lined up in Iraq. The winners got their votes through a smart manipulation of religion, money, power and ethnicity. The Unified Iraqi Alliance (UIA) won 4.75 million votes (48.7 per cent of the total turnout of 8.45 million voters), the Kurdistan list 2.17 million votes (26.2 per cent), the Iraqi list of Iyad Allawi 1.16 million votes (13.9 per cent), the list of interim President Ghazi Al-Yawar (Iraqiyun) 150,000 votes (1.8 per cent), the Turkoman Front 93,000 votes, the supporters of Al- Sadr 69,000 votes, the Iraqi Communist Party (People's Union) also 69,000 votes, the Islamic Kurdistan Group 60,000 votes, the Organisation of Islamic Work in Iraq- Central Command 43,000 votes, and the National Two Rivers (Al-Rafidayn) list 36,000 votes. All the above groups will get a minimum of one seat in the 275-seat National Assembly. Each seat requires about 30,470 votes to win (a figure obtained by dividing the number of voters by the number of seats). In other words, many lists have failed to grab a seat in the assembly. These include the Pachachi-led Independent Democrats (23,000 votes), the Iraqi National Unity Grouping (23,000 votes), and the Constitutional Monarchists (13,000 votes). As a result, the assembly will be dominated by a strong majority, with some political currents failing to get their foot in the door. The first task of the assembly is to write a constitution that determines the future of all Iraqis across the political spectrum. So far, it is not clear how the absence of several political currents from the assembly will be addressed. Meetings have not ceased since the election results were announced. The big winners, particularly the UIA and Allawi's list, are scrambling for potential allies. The combined votes of Allawi, the Kurds, Al- Yawar's Iraqiyun list, and the Iraqi Communist Party amount to 42.5 per cent of the assembly seats and can therefore offer a genuine challenge to the UIA. Allawi has met Masoud Barzani to seek his support in return for the appointment of a Kurdish president. Allawi's supporters, and many others, are hoping the UIA would disintegrate at some point in the future. Both Allawi and the UIA are now courting Islamic groups and the Turkoman Front. It remains to be seen which is more convincing. The UIA may face divisions over the selection of the prime minister. Meetings are underway to name the prime minister, with Ibrahim Al-Jaafari (Al-Daawa Party) and Adel Abdul-Mahdi (the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq) being the most obvious front- runners. Some speculate that Allawi and the UIA may join forces, with Allawi getting the premiership and UIA naming a significant proportion of ministers. But this is mere speculation. Allawi, who has US backing, may be able to survive without having to join forces with the UIA. Yet, the Americans may actually give the green light for such alliance to emerge. Already, US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has said that the US does not object to a moderate religious government in Iraq. The Kurds are the clear winners in these elections, regardless of how things develop. They played their cards right and now expect to either get the presidency or bring some Arab areas under their control. The two forces that would determine the future course of events in Iraq, however, are the US and Ayatollah Al-Sistani. Both stand to win something if their tacit coordination continues. Will they come to disagree in the future? Not many think so. Al-Sistani and his entourage are aware that the government is transitional and that its role will end in less than a year. Al-Sistani, for now, is keeping his cards close to his chest. But at some point in the future, he will have to make a move. What role is Al- Sistani about to play in drafting the new constitution? And how do the Sunnis and the armed groups feel about all that? These questions remain to be answered. A list of the political alliances and the number of seats they will receive in Iraq's National Assembly: -- The United Iraqi Alliance (Shia alliance backed by the moderate Ayatollah Al-Sistani, the country's highest Shia authority): 140 seats. -- The Kurdistan Alliance (coalition of two main Kurdish factions): 75 seats. -- The Iraqi list (headed by interim Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi -- a Shia): 40 seats. -- Iraqis (headed by interim Iraqi President Ghazi Al-Yawar -- a Sunni): 5 seats. -- The Turkomen Iraqi Front: 3 seats. -- The Iraqi Communist Party: 2 seats. -- The Independent Nationalist Bloc (affiliated to the militant Shia cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr): 3 seats.
