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Weathering the storm
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 03 - 03 - 2005

Cairo is preoccupied with defusing the growing tensions between Syria and the international community, writes Nevine Khalil
For two weeks now Egypt's diplomatic machine has been focussed on the crisis engulfing Damascus following the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Al- Hariri on 14 February, for which many blame Syria and the Syrian backed Lebanese government. Since Al-Hariri's death Damascus has faced mounting pressure -- spearheaded by the US and France -- to exit Lebanese politics. For its part Cairo has been careful not to point any fingers following Al-Hariri's assassination and has instead worked with Syria on defusing the ensuing tensions.
Washington and Paris used the assassination as a pretext to renew calls on Syria to withdraw from Lebanon in line with Security Council Resolution 1559 which demands the withdrawal of all foreign troops from Lebanon. Syria has an estimated 14,000 troops stationed in Lebanon, as well as maintaining an extensive intelligence apparatus, and Damascus influences all key Lebanese political decisions. Over the years it has redeployed troops regularly, sometimes decreasing their numbers, but has maintained a military presence in the country since 1976.
The Syrians argue that Resolution 1559 is less binding than the 1989 Taif agreement, which stipulates withdrawal of Syrian troops to the eastern Beqaa Valley followed by further withdrawals to be negotiated between the two parties. The Saudi-sponsored Taif agreement was in part brokered by Al-Hariri.
Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit said on Sunday Egypt was trying to sell a compromise solution to France and the US -- the co-sponsors of Security Council Resolution 1559. "Egypt believes the situation is delicate and sensitive, and requires action" that achieves an "overlap between the Taif agreement and Resolution 1559". Abul-Gheit was speaking after meeting the Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk Al-Sharaa, on a brief visit to Cairo before leaving for Saudi Arabia on Sunday.
With fears growing that Syria and/or Iran will be next on Washington's hit list Egypt has steeped up its attempts to mediate between Damascus, Washington and Paris in an attempt to defuse the growing crisis.
President Hosni Mubarak sent Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman to Syria last week, received Syria's foreign minister this week and remains in close contact with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and French President Jacques Chirac. He is also expected to visit Damascus "soon", according to Al-Sharaa.
Following a telephone conversation with Chirac on Sunday President Mubarak noted that international pressure on Syria was likely to grow. "We have to work together, and Syria must cooperate to defuse this pressure," Mubarak said. Chirac, a personal friend of Al-Hariri's, focussed on the immediate withdrawal of Syria from Lebanon and ways to rapidly implement Resolution 1559.
Even before dispatching Suleiman to Damascus it was clear that "pressure has increased on Syria" since Al-Hariri's assassination, Mubarak said before urging that a solution must be found "within an Arab framework". Speaking to reporters in Sharm El-Sheikh on 23 February, Mubarak said Damascus will be unable to resist international pressure over its role in Lebanon for much longer. According to presidential spokesman Suleiman Awwad, Mubarak believes that heightened tensions on the Lebanese stage and the increased pressure on Syria "call for effective and immediate action to contain the situations in Syria and Lebanon within an Arab framework".
Syria's predicament will be high on the agenda of the Arab summit schedule on 22-23 March. Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Algeria -- the summit's host -- are already working on a face saving formula to allow Syrian troops to withdraw beneath an Arab umbrella and thus avoid any further internationalisation of the issue through Resolution 1559. The compromise envisaged involves securing international consensus on the Taif agreement as an alternative to Resolution 1559.
Mubarak said Al-Assad had promised him Syria would redeploy its troops in Lebanon when the two leaders met recently. "And," he continued, "I believe he will keep his promise." Mubarak's statement came as US President George W Bush was calling on Syria to withdraw its presence from Lebanon, stressing that Washington is waiting for Syria's response before seeking to impose UN sanctions.
Al-Sharaa said Syria remains open to dialogue with the US in addition to inter-Arab dialogue "to resolve contentious issues". He added that the US "has no grounds to lay siege to Syria because we are committed to a withdrawal, as specified in the internationally-recognised Taif agreement".
"It's perhaps the first time that such US pressure is aimed at Arab governments," Al- Sharaa told reporters after meeting with Abul-Gheit. "These pressures are a serious wake-up call to Arabs to recover their solidarity and a little respect. We must not simply bow to diktat, we must pursue dialogue and cooperation."
But by Sunday Damascus seemed to be bowing to US pressure. It handed over former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein's half brother, Sabawi Ibrahim Al-Hassan, and agreed to strengthen patrols along its border with Iraq. Syria has also, according to reports, provided intelligence on 35 insurgent cells in Mosul, Iraq.
The moves have been seen as a goodwill gesture on the part of Damascus which is increasingly desperate to defuse tensions that escalated when, on Friday, Israel accused Syria of having a hand in that same day's suicide bombing in Tel Aviv. Although Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility for the attack Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon accused Damascus, which hosts some of the group's leaders, of bearing ultimate responsibility. In Cairo, Al-Sharaa denied that Syria was behind the Tel Aviv bombing, claiming that the perpetrators were "inside Israel".
Commenting on the Lebanese scene, Al- Sharaa said Syria "respects all the opinions being expressed in Lebanon... we are not taking sides with any group."
Meanwhile, Mubarak called on the Lebanese people to formulate a united stand before entering into negotiations with Syria over withdrawal. "Agree among yourselves then speak with Syria," Mubarak said last week.
Lebanese Defence Minister Abdel-Rahim Murad announced last Thursday that Syria was ready to redeploy all its troops to the Beqaa Valley near the border as a preliminary to full withdrawal under the Taif agreement. No timetable has yet been announced for the redeployment.


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