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And now what?
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 10 - 03 - 2005

In the aftermath of surprise, Fatemah Farag finds a press coming to terms with the nitty-gritty of change
At first everyone was happy. President Hosni Mubarak had given the go-ahead to amend the Constitution, opening up the political system for the first time in over 50 years to direct, multi-candidate presidential elections. But soon the euphoria, surprise and shock settled and everyone started debating the details. And the press this week seems to reflect the emergence of two main arguments: that of dissatisfaction with the extent of reform granted and that which warns that moving too fast could destabilise the system.
Al-Arabi on 6 March was full of dissatisfied customers. Diaaeddin Dawoud explained that the reform the opposition has been working for is not just about the presidential elections but also concerns the powers of the presidency which would require the amendment of articles 137 and 138. That is on the one hand. On the other, Dawoud asks, "and what of ignoring popular demands to end the state of emergency within which it is impossible to have freedom of election and nomination or consider the development of true democracy."
Dawoud concludes that the amendment of Article 76 alone is "the amendment of an orphaned article taken out of its context. The amendment is not harmonious with the philosophy of the Constitution which should be changed in accordance with popular demand... this announcement [of the president] does not comply with the ambitions of the Egyptian people or the demands of the political parties."
In his editorial in Akhbar Al-Adab on 6 March, Gamal El-Ghitani highlights the importance of amending Article 77 of the Constitution -- which currently puts no ceiling on the number of times a president can be re-elected. "How can we have comprehensive reform with a president directly elected but with an open candidacy? [A term] which can extend to consecutive decades which [can only] result in political and social stagnation?"
And in perfect style Mohamed Abdel-Moneim, editor-in-chief of Rose El-Youssef magazine (5-11 March) retorts, "The historical Egyptian method of esteeming the position of the first man in Egypt... is a civilised, rational method of behaviour that surpasses all other international concepts. This is why [our method of governance] has lasted for over 5,000 years while all others have become weak."
This reasoning leads Abdel-Moneim to argue that asking the president to amend Article 76 "might have been a normal request in any other country. But in Egypt, and especially with regards to choosing the president or the first man, this issue takes on extremely complicated historical, cultural and social aspects."
Back to the 6 March issue of Al-Arabi. Ahmed Bahaaeddin Shaaban is adamant: "[The amendment] is not enough to achieve, in any form, our demands for change. And it does not meet even the minimum of our national ambitions." As far as Shaaban is concerned the problematics of democracy in Egypt "will not be solved by merely changing the method of choosing the president, despite its importance, because its roots are deep in the infrastructure of the political and social system."
Mohamed Abul-Ghar, however, expresses both the need for further steps as well as the need for caution. In the 6 March issue of Al-Arabi he suggests that both meaningful and deep-rooted change in the institutions of state should be targeted in order to protect Egypt against chaos. Towards this end he advises President Mubarak to "discard some of the politicians of his ruling party that have a bad reputation and whom the public can no longer stand."
Abul-Ghar admits that because of "decades of political oppression and total government media control" there are no viable candidates for the upcoming presidency -- other than President Mubarak. However, he makes an argument for honest elections -- a dry run if you will for the upcoming parliamentary elections.
Trepidation was expressed by Ismail Sabri Abdallah in Al-Ahali on 2 March. He refers to the pitfalls of the Ukrainian democratic experiment, the situation in Iraq and now Lebanon. "I do not mean to defend the current political regimes but there is a necessity to study the elements [of democratic] scenarios and it is the responsibility of the opposition in each country to make sure that demands for democracy in the name of 'the people' are not forged. Following every voice that calls for democracy could turn out to be a grave mistake."
Also, Ahmed Abul-Maati in the issue of Al-Arabi mentioned above suggests the possibility that the amendment is merely "a political manoeuvre by the regime to get around US pressure which has escalated in the past five months." He also fears that the amendment will be used as a "democratic cover-up" to transfer power to Gamal Mubarak.
Anger at US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is still raw almost one month after her meeting with Foreign Minister Ahmed Abul-Gheit. On 2 March, Suleiman Gouda in Al-Wafd relayed the reaction of one of his readers to Rice's behaviour towards Egypt. "The message she [the reader] sent me was short. It said: 'The minister is being rude on the strength of her money.'" The implication, says Gouda, is that the Americans have given themselves the liberty of interfering in our local affairs because of the US aid money we receive every year. "But the truth is that every dollar paid, the US knows very well, is returned many fold over on both the short and long term. It [the US] knows very well that [by paying] it is protecting its interests in Egypt and in the region," argues Gouda.
And while he is angry at the Americans he adds, "We have no excuse... we should tell them [the US] to take their money and go ahead and try to protect their interests. And when they fail then maybe they will stop waving that losing card at us and stop being so insolent."
And Samir Ragab, editor-in-chief of Al- Gumhuriya newspaper, on 5 March in reference to US Ambassador David Welch's announcement that the US is funding six local NGOs, describes the attempts of the US government to tamper with our affairs is "blatant". This requires all Egyptians "irrespective of their political parties and beliefs, to confront [US interference] with clear-cut opposition."
For his part Makram Mohamed Ahmed, editor- in-chief of Al-Musawwar magazine (4 March) vehemently argues against those who deign to imply that the amendment decision taken by the president was a result of "external pressure". He also derided those who fear that the amendment is merely paving the way for Gamal Mubarak to take over. He did say, however, that "within my scope of information the president has not yet announced his nomination for another round because the new amendments require different procedures."
Rifaat El-Said in Al-Ahali seems to have had enough of waiting for change. "Our battle for the amendment of Article 76 of the Constitution took close to 25 years. Is it our fate to wait another quarter century dealing with constitutional articles that have been shaved of all potential to achieve any victory?"
But while heated debate is evident in the press Abbas Tarabili in Al-Wafd on 6 March can't help but wonder: what is the position of the Egyptian people in all of this? "We see a strange apathy regarding all that is happening. As if what is happening is not taking place in Egypt," says Tarabili.


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