The northern Iraqi oil-rich city of Kirkuk has emerged as the focus of Kurdish political ambitions, writes Abbas Kadhim Iraqi politicians who are in the process of framing the future of their country find it convenient to stick their heads in the sand whenever the Kurdish crisis comes up. It is about time the truth is spelled out: the Kurds are not interested in being part of Iraq. Every move they have made so far is geared towards independence. Between now and a bold declaration of the state of Kurdistan there is precious time to create facts on the ground maximising the chances for a viable state. The crown jewel of this endeavour will be the annexation of Kirkuk. Failure to deal with this murky situation from the outset will surely be to the detriment of a unified Iraq. The Kurdish approach to the problem of the oil- rich northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk has been carefully plotted. The Kurds spare no effort to change the demographics of the city. This process involves the re-settlement of Kurds by the tens of thousands and, at the same time, driving out the Arab population at gunpoint. Kurdish officials bluntly declare that they do not want Arabs in their territories. This plot will guarantee the annexation of Kirkuk under the federal arrangement that will give any city the option to join any province it chooses by a majority vote. The 30 January elections provided a clear example of this kind of fraud that went on with impunity. The Kurdish leadership is using the gains in the elections to intimidate, or maybe bribe, their Arab rivals who need their support to form the new government. They will also do so when the new constitution is written, exploiting their favourite three- province veto clause in the transitional administrative law. They will veto any constitution that reduces their chances of independence. Mindful of the hostile geo-political atmosphere, they realise that Kirkuk's oil is their only guarantor of viability for their separatist dreams. Hence, the new federalism they have in mind will not allow an Iraqi Arab to relocate in a Kurdish city. It is also a unique form of federalist arrangement that gives the national government no sovereignty in the Kurdish territories. At the present time, the national government has no power to extend its laws, curfews or troop movement anywhere in Kurdistan. If this relation is enshrined in the permanent Constitution, the only function the national government will serve is transferring block grants to the Kurdish government without the ability to enforce any form of accountability. This is not like any form of federalism in the world. When the conditions for a Kurdish separation materialise, Iraq will soon become three states, but not the ones many analysts predict -- a Kurdish state in the north, a Sunni Arab state in the middle and a Shia state in the south. Indeed, the chances of fragmentation in the Kurdish territory are much higher than the odds in the rest of Iraq. Not only will the demographic overlap in the Shia and the Sunni populations glue the Arab territories together, but also their political dynamics. The Sunni Arabs have a lot to lose should they elect to establish a state in their three provinces. Since ruling over the Shia is out of the question now, they would have to leave all the oil for the Shia and claim the silicon of the western desert. On the other hand, the Shia of Iraq possesses a strong national identity as Iraqis. There is no separatist southern identity in Iraq. The theological disputes between the two sides are not strong enough to mandate the painful separation. The situation is different up in the north. The Kurds of Iraq are indeed two different groups who speak two different languages and fall under the authority of two rival parties who displayed unthinkable brutality towards their opponents. In the aftermath of the 1991 uprising the Kurds were given autonomy over their territories from the central government of Iraq. But their first order of business was to wage war against one another, where one faction made an alliance with the Saddam Hussein regime to crush their own brethren, conveniently forgetting all the atrocities of the dictator. The recent cosmetic reconciliation between the two Kurdish parties must not be taken as foundation for a new era. It is the temporality of a common cause that will soon be over and there will be a resurgence of the true feeling held by Jalal Talibani and Masoud Barzani that Kurdistan is too small for both of them. The prize over which they are fighting with the rest of Iraq -- Kirkuk -- will soon be their own causus belli. The faction with Kirkuk on its side will have many friends, while the other faction will have Turkey on its side.
