Pro- and anti-Syrian groups in Lebanon continue to vie, in a delicate balance, over the future of the country, writes Mohalhel Fakih Lebanon's opposition is pressing prime minister-designate Omar Karami to form a new government and lead the country into legislative elections, which they expect to win, amid fears of political violence and divisions over the fate of Hizbullah's armed wing. A bomb exploded in a Christian suburb of Beirut on Saturday injuring 11 people, exactly one month after popular former Prime Minister Rafiq Al-Hariri was murdered in a massive explosion. The opposition is blaming the violence on Lebanese and Syrian intelligence agencies that stand to lose from an eventual Syrian military withdrawal. "Our priority is to hold elections on time, because the authorities are playing out a scenario to delay the polls and extend the mandate of the current parliament for six months or one year. We want to prevent that. They fear we could get a parliamentary majority," Wael Abu Faour, an opposition official and member of Walid Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party, told Al-Ahram Weekly. Karami, who was re-appointed by staunchly pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud to form a new government after street protests brought down his previous government last month, said, "Our mission is to bring problems from the street to the table of dialogue, to the formation of a national unity government, to elections." But Karami set a condition for heading a new government: support of the opposition. The central issue of contention is Syria's presence in Lebanon. Although Syrian officials have vowed to withdraw from Lebanon, under mounting international and Lebanese pressure, the opposition appears worried that Damascus might be banking on instability to provide cover for keeping troops in the country. "We want a full and immediate pullout," Abu Faour told the Weekly. Jumblatt's spokesman charged authorities with "orchestrating a series of security incidents" since Syria announced a redeployment of its troops to the Beqaa Valley ahead of a full withdrawal. Abu Faour believes they seek to "scare people so they can justify Syria's continued presence". The resignation of Lahoud, whose mandate was extended by parliament in September under Syrian pressure, is no longer a priority for the opposition. The withdrawal of Syrian soldiers and intelligence personnel is one of several conditions that a broad opposition front, including Muslim and Christian factions, has demanded before it considers joining the national unity government that Karami hopes to form. The opposition, which succeeded in bringing more than a million protesters to the streets of Beirut earlier this month, is demanding that the truth behind Al- Hariri's murder be revealed by way of an international investigation, and wants Syrian-backed security chiefs fired as well as a full Syrian redeployment. International diplomatic sources in Beirut speaking to the Weekly believe that a report on Al-Hariri's murder prepared by a UN fact-finding team could have serious consequences. "All Security Council members have taken a very strong position on Al-Hariri's assassination. The international community was angry because the assassination was considered a risk to the region and to international peace and security, thus the Security Council urged the UN secretary-general to report urgently on the assassination," sources said. Beirut's daily As-Safir on Monday said an international criminal court could be set up by the United Nations to try suspects linked to the murder. Press reports here and in London have been hinting at a Syrian and Lebanese hand in the shock assassination, despite strong denials by officials in both countries. The Sunni Muslim billionaire and political heavyweight had been edging closer towards the anti-Syrian opposition before his motorcade blew up in a massive bomb attack in Beirut on 14 February. His political rival, President Lahoud, has promised a transparent inquiry, but so far authorities have not even released details on the nature of the explosion. "We have to wait until the report is submitted to the Security Council to know the following steps that the international community will take. It is just the beginning of a process [which] the UN would undertake to put an end to targeted assassinations involving terrorism, the violation of human rights, and organised crime," informed international sources told the Weekly. The United Nations, led by the US and France, has been tightening the noose on Damascus and the Syrian-backed government in Beirut to implement Security Council Resolution 1559, adopted last September. It calls for the withdrawal of Syrian forces and for disarming Hizbullah and Palestinian militants. Meanwhile, diplomatic sources hint that the example of Iraq should be borne in mind: a major mobilisation of the international community is not out of the question. Buoyed by international pressure, hundreds of thousands of Lebanese, mainly Christian, Druze and Sunni Muslims, took to the streets of Beirut to protest Al-Hariri's killing and push for a withdrawal of Syrian troops. In stark contrast, Hizbullah also drew about 500,000 demonstrators to downtown Beirut in support of Syria and to denounce "foreign intervention" in Lebanon. The hard-line Muslim Shia group made clear that its armed wing, a target of Resolution 1559, would not be disbanded in exchange for a political role as the US administration seems to be offering; a major shift in Washington, which until recently refused to deal with Hizbullah, regarding it as a listed terrorist organisation. "There was a gross error in the way Resolution 1559 was worded, by putting the Syrian withdrawal and Hizbullah's arms in the same basket. The vast majority of the Lebanese opposition is now saying 'Let's discuss this later'. And the UN envoy, after meeting [Syrian President Bashar] Al-Assad recently, said the same thing. So now there is realisation that 1559 was not the appropriate vehicle to handle Hizbullah's weapons. It requires internal reconciliation," Timur Goksel, former United Nations spokesman for peacekeeping activities in South Lebanon told the Weekly. For the first time since Israel's May 2000 withdrawal from South Lebanon, Hizbullah is publicly defending its continued armament in the face of unprecedented internal and foreign pressure. Authorities in Beirut, supported by Damascus, argue that the group has a role resisting Israel's occupation of the Shebaa Farms, although the United Nations has ruled that the tiny hill belongs to Syria. According to Timur Goksel, a veteran military and political analyst, "The president says as long as there is no peace with Israel, the Lebanese army cannot cope with guaranteeing the border, if the Israelis decide to enter Lebanon." Consequently, "Hizbullah will not discuss its weapons let alone hand them over ... That is why only internal reconciliation can resolve this, and that seems to be accepted by the majority of the opposition," Goksel said. There are sharp divisions in Lebanon, however, even within the opposition, over the ultimate fate of the Syrian and Iranian-backed group's weapons. The group now boasts long- range missiles, Goksel explains, and have spread other weapons throughout the region to avoid a devastating Israeli strike. Prospects of instability over Hizbullah's arms are real. Fears run high that harmony between the 17 main religious sects in Lebanon could easily breakdown. "The Lebanese who wish to discuss the issue of arms or anything else should sit around a table of dialogue and discuss all matters not only specific ones," Hizbullah's second in command, Sheikh Naim Qassem, said. A unifying force has been MP Bahiya Al-Hariri, sister of the slain former prime minister. "We will resist all attempts to bring back the war and shake the security of the free Lebanese," Al-Hariri told residents of the New Jdeida Christian neighbourhood hours after a bomb blast brought scenes reminiscent of the 1975-1990 civil war. "They will not succeed in terrorising us," Al-Hariri said, while refraining from naming who "they" are. Al-Hariri has been following the footsteps of her late brother who was seen as a moderate political voice who always advocated productive ties with Damascus, despite strained relations at times. "We will stand next to Syria until the liberation of its occupied Golan Heights," Al-Hariri had told more than a million protesters in downtown Beirut, despite mounting anti-Syrian sentiment since her brother's assassination. She also reached out to Hizbullah and the smaller Shia party Amal, led by House Speaker Nabih Berri. "With them we will build the future of Lebanon," she said. But Al-Hariri made it clear that Lebanon must regain its sovereignty and that an international investigation, preceded by the dismissal of security chiefs, must be launched on the late premier's murder. "We believe there is no solution but through such reasonable language, which upholds democratic demands and at the same time bolsters unity and the protection of the resistance," opposition figure Abu Faour told the Weekly. Jumblatt, too, has taken up a more moderate tone, though with a warning implicit: "We are with the pullout of Syria and with the opening of a new page in ties with Syria. However, if some elements who are close to Syria lead us to chaos, this will backfire on Syria," he said.
