Sudan's future isn't what it used to be, writes Gamal Nkrumah Peace may have broken out among the disparate warring Sudanese groups, but only because war is waged more effectively on the political front. Earlier this week, Sudanese government and opposition forces met in Cairo to thrash out differences and sign a reconciliation accord. President Hosni Mubarak attended the signing ceremony and was joined by Sudanese President Omar Hassan Al-Bashir, who flew in especially for the occasion. "We've put our hands together and unified our goals to compensate the people of Sudan for all what they've missed during the era of conflicts," the Sudanese president said at the signing ceremony, which took place on Saturday. The reconciliation accord was signed by Sudanese Vice- President Ali Othman Mohamed Taha, representing the Sudanese government, and Mohamed Othman Al-Mirghani, leader of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the umbrella opposition grouping that includes 13 mainly northern Sudanese political parties. Under the reconciliation agreement, the NDA will be incorporated into a government of national unity. It is still not yet known how many seats in the interim Sudanese national unity cabinet will be reserved for the NDA. But, NDA fighters will be incorporated into the Sudanese national army. "We still haven't worked out the details," official NDA spokesman Hatem Al-Sirr told Al-Ahram Weekly. Sudanese government officials and NDA leaders are currently meeting in the riverside resort of Al-Qanater Al-Kheyriya, 30 kilometres north of Cairo. For the moment an uneasy calm prevails. At their core, jitters about the new Sudan boil down to two questions: who will run the country and how would the agreements on paper be implemented? The Sudanese protagonists have cabinet and other official vacancies to fill, and must choose men and women to fill them who will remain true to the goals and values of the new Sudan for decades to come. It all sounded promising, but the fact remains that the Sudanese are yet to enjoy peace. Indeed, the eruption of fighting in eastern Sudan took the edge off the celebrations. The vicious conflagration was the worst in two years, claiming the lives of tens of both the Sudanese government and eastern Sudanese armed opposition groups. The violence on the eastern front centred around the town of Tokar, 160 kilometres south of Port Sudan, the country's main outlet on the Red Sea. Tokar is also less than 50 kilometres from the Eritrean border. The Sudanese government accused the Eritrean government of instigating the fighting. Eritrea has a close working relationship with several Sudanese opposition groups. The main groups engaged in the fighting included the Arab Rashaida Free Lions and the Beja Congress. The non-Arab Beja people are the main ethnic group in eastern Sudan numbering some three million. The Rashaida are the largest Arab tribe in eastern Sudan. Ethnic Beja took to the streets of Port Sudan protesting against violence, discrimination and political marginalisation. Eritrea officially sympathises with the grievances of the eastern Sudanese. The NDA is headquartered in Asmara, and the Eritrean government is politically aligned to the Rashaida Free Lions and the Beja Congress. The Eritreans retort that Khartoum's accusations are a slanderous misrepresentation of its Sudan policy. The current insurgency is concentrated in the east and west of the country. The marginalised ethnicities and disfranchised political groups may be denied a voice in the new Sudan and thus become more alienated than ever. The NDA believes that Eritrea's support for the demands for empowerment of the eastern Sudanese are perfectly legitimate. But Khartoum insists that Eritrea should be more assiduous in refusing safe haven to Sudanese armed opposition groups. The tensions also highlight how peace accords can only be seen as a beginning of the Sudanese peace process, not the end. The result is that the Sudanese people find themselves confronted with increasingly fierce claims for possession of their political loyalties. The Umma Party, Sudan's largest political party, has so far declined to sign a reconciliation accord with the Sudanese government. Led by Saddig Al-Mahdi, the Umma pulled out of the NDA in 2001 and has stressed that it does not accept the terms of the Cairo accord. It also said that it would not be part of any government of national unity. The opposition Popular Congress Party (PCP) led by Sudan's chief Islamist ideologue, Hassan Al-Turabi, has likewise declined to sign a deal with the Sudanese government. Al-Turabi is currently under house arrest because of his alleged involvement in a coup attempt last year. The government accuses the PCP of supporting the insurgency in the east of the country. Ironically, one of the main armed groups in Darfur, the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), is involved, Khartoum claims, in fighting in the east. If the fighting in the east continues to escalate, the Cairo accord would at best be pointless. There is still time for the Sudanese government to seek political deals that might enfranchise its opponents. Southern Sudan is a test case. There is still an air of death and fear in much of southern Sudan, even though there is a semblance of peace in areas where the SPLA has expanded its territorial grip. The plight of the displaced southern Sudanese people is an example of how much still has to be done before the Sudanese people can claim lasting peace. Divided by ethnicity and religious affiliation, the southern Sudanese people still yearn for peace. They do not want the south to be a hate-filled region. Sudan's leaders can now only be acceptable to their people if they can portray themselves as a unified force. Sudan's people are fed up with war. But, their leaders may choose to stick with the pecking order to which they have become accustomed, rather than risk all to gain all. It is not even clear that they will try. Opposition parties have so far been toothless. Those outlying regions are the most alienated from party politics. Otherwise, Sudan could end up in a vicious cycle of war, wanton destruction and underdevelopment, with millions of displaced civilians. Members of Sudan's political establishment are fast learning how to communicate more effectively among each other. Clearer thinking over the country's political future has replaced earlier worrying and concern. They must also learn to overcome dead-end thinking.
