Will the Muslim Brotherhood's new reform initiative bring it closer to other pro-reform forces, asks Omayma Abdel-Latif When Nobel Laureate Naguib Mahfouz was asked recently about possible scenarios awaiting Egypt he replied that "it seems Egypt wants to try the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood." A great many analysts, particularly within liberal and secular circles, share Mahfouz's concern, regularly pointing out that the Brotherhood is likely to reap the greatest benefit from any political reform process in Egypt. They raise serious questions -- that could make or break attempts at political reform -- about the group's relations with other political forces, the fate of the delicate balance it has routinely maintained with the state as well as the Brotherhood's own vision for reform which until now has been shrouded in vagueness. "There are serious worries," says Wahid Abdel-Maguid, editor of the annual Arab Strategic Report issued by the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, "that if the nascent reform process is badly managed it will result in a huge political vacuum that can only be filled by the Brotherhood, the most organised political group on the scene." Even in the best case scenario, where free and fair elections are guaranteed, the group will still, in Abdel-Maguid's view, score more points than its political rivals. "The dominant perception among many intellectuals is that the Brotherhood will rise to power, either as a result of the failure of political forces to reach a consensus on the type of political system they want, or else through the ballot box." The ongoing debate over the role of the outlawed group in the reform process is likely to become more urgent following the Brotherhood's expected announcement today of a new reform initiative allying pro-reform figures and movements under the National Coalition for Reform. The new alliance is likely to be met with dismay by those opposition parties which, say Brotherhood sources, chose to keep their distance. Arguments about the imminent rise to power of Islamists tend to be viewed by the Brotherhood as an aspect of Islamist phobia. "This myth about Islamists capitalising on calls for reform to leap to power has long been used, by both the regime and by liberal intellectuals, to hinder any process of change," says Abdel-Moneim Abul-Futuh, a senior member of the Brotherhood's Guidance Bureau. "It is generally accepted that in a free and fair election we would gain between 20 to 25 per cent of seats in parliament. Any talk about the group monopolising power is utter nonsense." Currently, the Muslim Brotherhood controls 13 seats in parliament held by members who stood independently, making it the largest opposition bloc. But what of the group's recent political performance which many believe has been fraught with contradictions? Recent weeks saw a surprising surge in the group's street activism as demonstrations were held across the country in what many viewed as a show of strength, only to be followed by a period of deafening silence. Brotherhood leaders take an outspoken line with the regime only to follow it up with a more compromising tone. Some Brotherhood members have joined the ranks of pro-reform movements while their leaders refuse to be lumped together with other reform movements and insist they are the strongest group. Such fluctuating stances have attracted criticism from across the political spectrum. They could also reflect, argue some political analysts, an internal crisis within the Brotherhood over the political choices it now faces. "The Brotherhood has always failed to seize the right moment to act," explains Heba Ra'ouf Ezzat of Cairo University's political science faculty. The group's biggest mistake, in Ezzat's view, was not joining the ranks of the popular movement that emerged in March 2003 to protest the US invasion of Iraq and which later became the nucleus of the reform movement. "Their compromising approach towards the government should be revised. It has never yielded them any benefits and they always end up paying a hefty price," argues Ezzat, who also believes the group must review its relationship with other political forces. Many of the Muslim Brotherhood's detractors accuse it of standing aloof from the political fray, proof, they argue, that the group's original, radical agenda remains unreconstructed and will eventually re-emerge. Such accusations are routinely dismissed by group members. Gamal Heshmat, a former MP for the Brotherhood, points out that every time the group makes overtures to other political forces its efforts are rebuffed. The majority of opposition parties shunned the group, he says, when it proposed its first reform initiative last year, preferring instead to "sacrifice the unity of the opposition at the altar of dialogue with the ruling party". The initiative due to be announced today at the Press Syndicate is being seen by many as an attempt to mend fences with the pro-reform movement in the face of the challenges ahead. "This is not about a Brotherhood initiative," explains Abul-Futuh, "the Brotherhood is in an alliance with other forces in an attempt to foster an inclusive process to push for political reform." According to Abul-Futuh the initiative grew out of a series of workshops held during the past three weeks at the Press Syndicate that brought together Nasserists and independents as well as partisan figures. A plan of action is expected to be announced today revealing the basis on which the alliance was established. "The alliance aims to establish a truly democratic system that allows for political plurality and is based on the principle that the nation is the source of authority," the Muslim Brotherhood said in a statement issued on Tuesday. "The Brotherhood realises it cannot speak about genuine political reform without engaging other pro-reform groups," says Brotherhood member Ali Abdel-Fattah. "There is a strong belief that political reform can happen when, and only when, Egypt's different political forces agree on common goals within a specific time frame and with specific mechanisms to achieve them. We are seeking to help create that common agenda." While early reports suggested the Egyptian Movement for Change (Kifaya) had joined the alliance, a Kifaya statement issued earlier this week denied this was the case but said it was open to discussions with the coalition and that some Kifaya members had attended the workshops in a personal capacity. While concern has been expressed that the coalition might create a schism within the nascent pro-reform movement Abul-Futuh believes it is more likely to act as a melting pot of pro-reform forces and strengthen, rather than weaken, the reform process. "All the forces in the coalition, including the Brotherhood, come to the table with one agenda, political reform and how to achieve it peacefully," he says. Which suggests the coalition is likely to test the ability of the Muslim Brotherhood to become an equal player in a political game where it is not the automatic centre of gravity.
