How bad will the effect on tourism be? Rehab Saad monitors the possible impact A tourist from Saudi Arabia had just cut short his London holiday; the 7 July UK attacks had rattled him, and he thought he would spend the rest of his break somewhere in the Middle East instead. First he went to Syria, planning to go from there to Lebanon. He reconsidered that plan after a bomb went off in Beirut, and booked a trip for himself and his family to Sharm El-Sheikh. Last week's blasts in the Red Sea resort forced him to cancel that plan as well. In the end, the man decided to spend his vacation in Abha, a Saudi Arabian resort. The Saudi Arabian tourist's quest to find a safe holiday destination perfectly encapsulates the confusing state of world travel today: with nearly everywhere seemingly risky, is any one place really more dangerous than any other? That's the sentiment tourism industry insiders are hoping for as they ponder the potentially devastating effects on their business of last week's events in Sharm El-Sheikh: that it is becoming difficult for any place to be absolutely safe. Explosions and attacks, after all, have recently taken place in locales as varied as London, Turkey, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Spain. Hala El-Khatib, spokeswoman for the minister of tourism, told Al-Ahram Weekly that the Sharm El-Sheikh attacks should be perceived in light of global events. "People will not give up their freedom and lock themselves up. They have become used to such events, and can thus deal with and tolerate them. It won't stop them from traveling." Amr Badr, managing director of Abercrombie & Kent, Egypt and Middle East, is not as optimistic. He admits that "terrorism has become borderless, [that] we are undoubtedly facing an international phenomenon, namely, the globalisation of terrorism, which has made public opinion more cooperative and supportive and more understanding of the situation." In the same breath, however, he said, "there will undoubtedly be a devastating effect on the tourism industry, especially in south Sinai. This effect will vary from one market to another, and from one destination to another." In fact, some 6,000 tourists flew out of Sharm El-Sheikh in the first 24 hours following the bombings, double the number expected. Many of those who left were desperate to flee, flying out on unscheduled flights added by airlines, including Egypt's national carrier, EgyptAir. Italy, Egypt's top tourist market, has advised its citizens not to travel to Sharm El-Sheikh; consequently, the Italian Association of Tour Operators declared all package tours to Sharm temporarily suspended, and sent planes to fly home the estimated 6,000 to 7,000 Italian holidaymakers there. German travel operator TUI declared that about 250 of the company's 1,600 customers in Sharm and nearby areas had opted to return home. Thomas Cook suspended all its flights to Sharm El-Sheikh, also bringing home 100 of its 813 German customers. The German-based company said all journeys to Egypt this summer could be changed at no cost to the customer until 6 August; clients could choose another destination or postpone their trip. On Saturday morning, a day after the attack, 293 Swiss tourists cut short their holidays and returned to Zurich aboard a chartered Airbus. Like Italy, Denmark and Sweden told travelers to cancel any planned visits to Sinai, while France's Foreign Ministry issued a travel warning saying it was not advisable at the moment to travel to the Sinai Peninsula, and in particular to Sharm El-Sheikh. The continuous reports of holidaymakers' exodus from Sharm El-Sheikh after the attacks "is very natural," said Mounir Wissa, the general manger of Escapade Travel. "The first direct reaction of travellers after a major incident like this is to leave immediately, or to cancel their bookings. The problem is not the short-term effect but the long term one. Today, there is a direct negative effect on Sharm El-Sheikh, tomorrow it will be Luxor, Aswan and other destinations. Travellers who want to book for October and November will not choose Egypt." A top manager at a hotel chain with branches in Sharm El-Sheikh and Hurghada, who spoke on condition of anonymity, was even more pessimistic. "This incident is worse than the Luxor massacre that took place in 1997. There are more victims this time, meaning this will echo everywhere worldwide and will have a very negative impact on tourism. Sharm El-Sheikh is no longer the city of peace. I think we are going to face the same situation we faced in 1997. Luxor was empty for two or three years after that, and that's what I expect will happen in Sharm El-Sheikh." Tourism Minister Ahmed El-Maghrabi believes Egypt's industry will suffer a short-term blow in the wake of the attacks, but will then bounce back quickly. "A committee formed by the ministry is following the situation closely. First, it is important to deal with the injured, and then we will evaluate the situation accurately, and accordingly decide -- in a scientific way -- how we will move in the markets exporting tourists to Egypt." While attacks against tourists were frequent in the mid-1990s, the biggest took place in Luxor in 1997, when Islamist militants killed 58 foreign tourists and four Egyptians in front of the Hatshepsut Temple on the west bank of the Nile. There were no subsequent terror attacks against tourists until 7 October 2004, when militants detonated bombs in the Sinai resort of Taba and the Ras Shaytan camp, killing 34 people, including more than 10 Israelis, and wounding more than 100. The Sharm El-Sheikh attack killed 64 and wounded around 200. The Red Sea resort is widely considered Egypt's most important holiday destination, having grown in the space of a few decades from a virtual no-man's land to a booming tourism spot as well as a popular meeting place for world leaders. It has been described as a deep-sea paradise; scuba divers are attracted by an abundance of corals, exotic marine plants and rare tropical fish. Some say it is the world's best diving area. It is also noted for its sulfur springs, used as treatment for rheumatic and skin diseases. Before the Israeli occupation of Sinai, which began in 1967, Sharm was nothing more than a small fishing village. By the time the last Israeli troops left the peninsula in 1982, it was beginning to acquire its first hotels, and develop its dive centre reputation. In recent years, its growth has progressed at a furious pace, with hotels, casinos, nightclubs and golf courses springing up everywhere. While diving remains a large part of its identity, Sharm now relies mostly on revenue from general tourism. The Neama Bay area, where two of the bombs exploded, has virtually become a resort in its own right. July and August are Sharm's two biggest months, with Europeans, led by Italians, Germans, Russians and Britons, flying directly into the beach resort in the tens of thousands. In 2004, Sharm El-Sheikh attracted two million tourists, 700,000 of whom were Italians, who spent 13.6 million hotel nights. Sharm attracted at least 20 per cent of Egypt's 8.7 million visitors in 2004. "Tourism investments in Sharm El-Sheikh amount to LE10 billion, and are set to double over the next five years. The city has 35,000 hotel beds, and another 35,000 are under construction," said Magdi El-Qobeissi, head of the Tourism Development Authority. On TV early this week, El-Maghrabi said, "investors saw what happened in the Egyptian tourist industry in the past 10 years. The numbers of tourists multiplied from three to almost nine million, despite all the terrorist attacks that took place." Despite the minister's confidence, Hisham Ali, head of the South Sinai Investors Association, said, "the attacks occurred at a very critical time. Most hotels were full, and there were several contracts with the Italian, British, German and Scandinavian markets." He said the association was "contacting all investors and hotel owners in Sharm El-Sheikh in order not to slash rates or lay off workers -- 250,000 of whom work in hotels, and 80,000 in shops and bazaars." Overall, Egypt's tourism industry employs 2.5 million people, directly or indirectly, bringing the country some $6.6 billion in annual revenues. Economic experts predicted that the attacks could cost the country's number one hard currency earner between $2 to $3 billion during fiscal year 2005-2006, which began on 1 July. They believe that tourists from Italy, Germany and Britain will stay away from Egypt in droves during the current financial year, amid fears of further terror attacks and a general unease about travel to the Middle East and Muslim countries. At the same time, Egyptian tourist officials have gained experience over the years in ways of dealing with these kinds of crises so that their negative impact can be lessened or contained. According to Riad Qabil, secretary-general of the Egyptian Travel Agents Association, Egyptian travel agencies are contacting the tour operators they deal with to explain the situation in Egypt. Some of them even extended invitations for them to come and see for themselves. "We have also run a 24-hour operations room to receive cancellations from hotels and travel agencies so that we can guarantee sound statistics of our losses," Qabil told the Weekly. He said several familiarisation trips for foreign journalists and correspondents are also being organised. For its part, the Egyptian Federation of Tourist Chambers recently declared that hotels and travel agencies in Sharm El-Sheikh have decided not to lay off any workers. The federation also decided to provide LE10,000 in compensation to families of the dead, and LE3,000 to the injured. In a rapid attempt to contain the repercussions of the attacks, Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif issued orders to implement an incentive charter programme to Sharm El-Sheikh. The programme allows the Egyptian government to buy the rest of the seats on charter flight to Sharm El-Sheikh in cases where at least 50 per cent of seats are booked by travellers. In a meeting with representatives of the Egyptian Federation of Tourist Chambers and the Egyptian Hotels Association, El-Maghrabi said the programme would be effective immediately, and would run from now until the end of August, when its validity would again be reviewed.
